How many McCain districts will there be after this round of redistricting?

[Nichlemn]

Obama won 242 districts in 2008, while McCain won the other 193. How does it look like this will change? Is there any reasonable chance that a majority of new districts will have voted for McCain?

[Torie]

Obama won 242 districts in 2008, while McCain won the other 193. How does it look like this will change? Is there any reasonable chance that a majority of new districts will have voted for McCain?

My guess is  close, but not quite - say 210 CD's.

[Miles]

There's already 3 more in NC...

Looking at the new WI map, Tom Petri may now have a McCain district also.

[krazen1211]

A majority? Probably not.

Of the states completed:

Texas added 4 such districts. North Carolina adds 3 such districts.

Wisconsin might have flipped the Petri district. I don't think they flipped Ryan's. Indiana came close with Donnelly's but I think Obama barely won that, too.

Elsewhere, NJ could be adding 2 such districts (3 and 7). Virginia can add anywhere from 1 to 3 (2, 4, 10). I don't think there's enough strength in PA to create a new McCain district anywhere, though.

Where else could they create one? Washington with Reichert? Ohio with a Columbus pack? There won't be any in the South.

There are of course offsetting losses; I believe that the Amash district went from barely McCain to barely Obama.

My guess is 205 is the end result.

[dpmapper]

A majority? Probably not.

Of the states completed:

Texas added 4 such districts. North Carolina adds 3 such districts.

Wisconsin might have flipped the Petri district. I don't think they flipped Ryan's. Indiana came close with Donnelly's but I think Obama barely won that, too.

Elsewhere, NJ could be adding 2 such districts (3 and 7). Virginia can add anywhere from 1 to 3 (2, 4, 10). I don't think there's enough strength in PA to create a new McCain district anywhere, though.

Where else could they create one? Washington with Reichert? Ohio with a Columbus pack? There won't be any in the South.

My guess is 205 is the end result.

Gerlach's might become a McCain district, depending on how they do things (in my last map it was over 50% McCain).  Georgia will gain two (one from the new seat, one from flipping Barrow's or Bishop's).  SC will gain one.  FL might gain one or two.  MN-3, potentially?  AZ and UT are a +1 each.  TN, if they crack Nashville.  Upstate NY, perhaps...

[Torie]

There's already 3 more in NC...

Looking at the new WI map, Tom Petri may now have a McCain district also.

No, not quite McCain for the Petri CD having looked it up. Ditto for IN-02.  But we have a 4th Utah CD, and OH-01 and the NE corner CD in Ohio (OH-might move into the McCain column, along with maybe one or both of the Columbus CD's.  PA is out there too, but the Holden CD will move to being an Obama CD.  PA-03 won't be added to the McCain column, because McCain carried the existing CD by 17 votes.     And then we have KS-03 and NB-02 out there.

205 looks like a pretty good number actually.  But about another 5-10 seats might be within a point of McCain carrying them.

[dpmapper]

The new NE-02 is not quite a McCain district, and I forgot that Barletta's might also become one in exchange for Holden's in PA. 

[Miles]

FL-08 could become a McCain district if they shore-up Taliban Dan. Though the Republicans may just concede an Orlando district.

[Mr.Phips]

CA-42-McCain to Obama
MD-01 McCain to Obama

NC-08 Obama to McCain
NC-13 Obama to McCain

That's all for sure. 

[Miles]

CA-42-McCain to Obama
MD-01 McCain to Obama

NC-08 Obama to McCain
NC-13 Obama to McCain

That's all for sure. 

And NC-02.

[Mr.Phips]

CA-42-McCain to Obama
MD-01 McCain to Obama

NC-08 Obama to McCain
NC-13 Obama to McCain

That's all for sure. 

And NC-02.

Forgot about that.  There is also MI-03, which goes from McCain to Obama. 

[nclib]

IA and LA's lost seats went for Obama and McCain, respectively.

What page of CA and MD's threads, is the map/demographics on? Both appear to be finished, or close, but I didn't see it on the MD thread, and don't want to look through 20 pages of CA.

[Devils30]

probably about 200-205

[nclib]

bump

CO appears to be O +1 M -1
AZ appears to be M +1
GA is O -1 M +2
MA is O -1
NV is O +2 M -1

[Mr.Phips]

bump

CO appears to be O +1 M -1
AZ appears to be M +1
GA is O -1 M +2
MA is O -1
NV is O +2 M -1

MD is O+1 M-1
MI is O+1 M-1
NC is O-2 M+2