PPP Kentucky Preview: Obama leads Palin

[Associate Justice PiT]

Kentucky IS a Democratic state.

Yeah. A Democratic state with a 6/8 Republican Congressional Delegation and a Republican State Senate, which the Republican candidate have carried in all but four of the presidential elections since 1960.
Kentucky was a Democratic state.

     More to the point, Kentucky is a conservative Democratic state. There's tons of registered Democrats there, but a non-trivial proportion of them are reliable Republican voters. For Kentucky to be competitive in a Presidential race is comically bad for the GOP. Of course Palin won't win the nomination, so this is rather pointless.

So in many ways it is like Oklahoma, just a bit less Conservative. 

     Pretty much. Indiana is like that too. West Virginia counts for Presidential elections, at least.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky IS a Democratic state.

There might have been some truth to that... Southern moderates and populists (Clinton, Carter in 1976) can win the state as Democrats.  Others?

Barack Obama is a poor cultural match for Kentucky --- heck, he's a better match for Indiana!

Culture matters greatly in close elections. Barack Obama wins Kentucky only in a landslide.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Barack Obama is a poor cultural match for Kentucky

Actually, Romney is too. Still, I can see him actually winning.

[redcommander]

Kentucky IS a Democratic state.

There might have been some truth to that... Southern moderates and populists (Clinton, Carter in 1976) can win the state as Democrats.  Others?

Barack Obama is a poor cultural match for Kentucky --- heck, he's a better match for Indiana!

Culture matters greatly in close elections. Barack Obama wins Kentucky only in a landslide.

What explains polls showing Hillary Clinton beating John McCain there in 2008 then? She isn't exactly a moderate, although I suppose the argument could be made that she's a populist. Was it a longing for the good old days under Bill Clinton?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What explains polls showing Hillary Clinton beating John McCain there in 2008 then? She isn't exactly a moderate, although I suppose the argument could be made that she's a populist. Was it a longing for the good old days under Bill Clinton?

I never saw a single poll showing Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky.

Why anybody would long for the Bill Clinton era is beyond me. Who really wants to return to the days of the Chicago font, helmet hair, and the Communications Decency Act?

[redcommander]

What explains polls showing Hillary Clinton beating John McCain there in 2008 then? She isn't exactly a moderate, although I suppose the argument could be made that she's a populist. Was it a longing for the good old days under Bill Clinton?

I never saw a single poll showing Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky.

Why anybody would long for the Bill Clinton era is beyond me. Who really wants to return to the days of the Chicago font, helmet hair, and the Communications Decency Act?

Peace and Prosperity? I'm not sure either, but Clinton nostalgia is definitely still alive and well.

[nhmagic]

PPP has accurately called races just days before elections, most of the results that have been off have been in favor of Republicans, because they have a slight Republican effect from time to time.

Here is a newsflash, just because a poll doesn't show a result you like, doesn't mean it's incorrect.

Yes, they have - just days before elections; however, that does not change the fact that they, like Rasmussen, are releasing far too D favorable polls far in advance of the general in order to drive the media narrative. 

It's not a newsflash to me.  There are polls I don't like out there all the time and I don't think all of them are wrong.  PPP's polling is using a dem-inflated model that does not comport with the better standards like Gallup's approval and the intensity of the right.  You can see some  things coming a mile away, just like most of us Rs knew the D wave that would occur in 2008.  I certainly didn't like the polls then, but I never thought they were wrong.

[Tender Branson]

What explains polls showing Hillary Clinton beating John McCain there in 2008 then? She isn't exactly a moderate, although I suppose the argument could be made that she's a populist. Was it a longing for the good old days under Bill Clinton?

I never saw a single poll showing Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky.

Well, SurveyUSA once had Hillary ahead of McCain a few times in Kentucky.



Obama, not so much: