UT-PPP: Matheson competitive
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Author Topic: UT-PPP: Matheson competitive  (Read 6837 times)
King
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« on: July 11, 2011, 06:10:59 PM »
« edited: July 12, 2011, 11:03:48 AM by Tender Branson »
"Democrats really do have a chance to be competitive in the US Senate race in Utah next year, but that potential for a close contest is completely predicated on Congressman Jim Matheson taking the plunge. Other potential Democratic nominees we looked at- even though they're well liked by voters in the state- would lose by the sorts of astronomical margins Democrats are accustomed to losing by in Utah."

Matheson 47%
Chaffetz 42%

Matheson 45%
Hatch 44%

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/matheson-competitive-in-utah-senate.html
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2011, 06:15:16 PM »
Fool's gold.  Not that we know what his new seat is going to look like (or do we?  I haven't been following), but he'd be throwing away a somewhat safe House seat in order to maybe win a Senate seat, concurrently with a presidential election that may very well feature a Mormon at the top of the GOP ticket.
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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2011, 06:18:31 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on July 11, 2011, 06:15:16 PM
Fool's gold.  Not that we know what his new seat is going to look like (or do we?  I haven't been following), but he'd be throwing away a somewhat safe House seat in order to maybe win a Senate seat, concurrently with a presidential election that may very well feature a Mormon at the top of the GOP ticket.

looool!

I think it would be worth the shot if we knew Romney wasn't going to be the candidate. But yeah...
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2011, 06:20:54 PM »
What did I say that was 'looool'-worthy?  (Is that pronounced as spelled, by the way?  Like 'drool'?)
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King
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2011, 06:23:04 PM »
Quote from: bgwah on July 11, 2011, 06:18:31 PM
Quote from: Joe Republic on July 11, 2011, 06:15:16 PM
Fool's gold.  Not that we know what his new seat is going to look like (or do we?  I haven't been following), but he'd be throwing away a somewhat safe House seat in order to maybe win a Senate seat, concurrently with a presidential election that may very well feature a Mormon at the top of the GOP ticket.

looool!

I think it would be worth the shot if we knew Romney wasn't going to be the candidate. But yeah...

I believe Utah is scheduled to be the last primary in the nation (late June).  Matheson will likely go unchallenged in any primary.  There should be a GOP nominee far before hen.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2011, 06:26:39 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on July 11, 2011, 06:20:54 PM
What did I say that was 'looool'-worthy?  (Is that pronounced as spelled, by the way?  Like 'drool'?)

looool means Legitimate Opinion with Obviously Objective and Ordered Logic.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2011, 06:53:52 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on July 11, 2011, 06:15:16 PM
Fool's gold.  Not that we know what his new seat is going to look like (or do we?  I haven't been following), but he'd be throwing away a somewhat safe House seat in order to maybe win a Senate seat, concurrently with a presidential election that may very well feature a Mormon at the top of the GOP ticket.

We don't know, but all of the Republican proposals so far have continued to crack Salt Lake City, so it's not like Matheson would have a safe district.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2011, 07:10:47 PM »
He'll lose if Romney or Huntsman is the nominee, even in a 2008 repeat. On the other hand, he could win if Bachmann or Perry is the nominee, or if Hatch runs as an independent against him and Chaffetz.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2011, 08:13:28 PM »
So this is... Scott Brown in reverse?
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2011, 10:49:59 AM »
a democrat leading in Utah??? I know he's a DINO.. but this is incredible... I thought I would die before seeing a serious poll like PPP showing a dem. leading there.

However, this could be WY-house election, 2008 2.0.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2011, 11:06:11 AM »
Sorry, intermoderate, I didn't know you would use the same thread for the poll...
but you used copy/paste from my thread, eh? I deserve some copyrights!!! hahaha...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2011, 11:08:29 AM »
Quote from: JulioMadrid on July 12, 2011, 11:06:11 AM
Sorry, intermoderate, I didn't know you would use the same thread for the poll...
but you used copy/paste from my thread, eh? I deserve some copyrights!!! hahaha...

No, I did the copying.

Actually, I wanted your post to be on top of the page, but when I merged it, I chose the wrong thread to be on the top ... Tongue
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2011, 11:15:39 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 12, 2011, 11:08:29 AM
Quote from: JulioMadrid on July 12, 2011, 11:06:11 AM
Sorry, intermoderate, I didn't know you would use the same thread for the poll...
but you used copy/paste from my thread, eh? I deserve some copyrights!!! hahaha...

No, I did the copying.

Actually, I wanted your post to be on top of the page, but when I merged it, I chose the wrong thread to be on the top ... Tongue

OK, Wink
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2011, 12:28:32 PM »
It's tough climb, but doable for Matheson. This is the second poll showing him competitive, so something is going on here.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2011, 04:12:28 PM »
Wow, he's even ahead of Hatch. Chaffetz makes sense, but I thought Hatch was still pretty popular (among indies and non-crazy Republicans at least).
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2011, 04:29:24 PM »
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2011, 04:30:02 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 04:29:24 PM
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.

Dude, it's UTAH!!
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King
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« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2011, 05:12:25 PM »
Quote from: Lief on July 12, 2011, 04:12:28 PM
Wow, he's even ahead of Hatch. Chaffetz makes sense, but I thought Hatch was still pretty popular (among indies and non-crazy Republicans at least).

Indies and non-crazy Republicans only make up like 5% of the state population.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2011, 05:45:51 PM »
I just don't see this happening unless Chaffetz turns out to be deeply flawed (like, indictment-level flawed). He's a nut, to be sure, but Utah has no problem electing a nut as long as there's an R by their name.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2011, 05:48:47 PM »
Quote from: Badger on July 12, 2011, 04:30:02 PM
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 04:29:24 PM
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.

Dude, it's UTAH!!

Cool, a Democratic senator that we can all complain about a year or two down the road.
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HST1948
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« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2011, 05:56:28 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 05:48:47 PM
Quote from: Badger on July 12, 2011, 04:30:02 PM
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 04:29:24 PM
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.

Dude, it's UTAH!!

Cool, a Democratic senator that we can all complain about a year or two down the road.

I was just about to post these exact words lol.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2011, 06:14:34 PM »
2008 was a terrible year for Republicans and McCain still carried Utah by 28 points. 2012 will be a better year for them. While the poll is encouraging, conventional wisdom dictates otherwise. As someone already said on here, IT's UTAH. Matheson, although a DINO and quite uninspiring, is our best candidate, but even against a crazy teabagger Republican and even if a crazy like Bachmann/Santorum/Perry wins the nomination, I still don't see Matheson winning.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2011, 06:54:52 PM »
I like these "Even if Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Palin win the nomination..." comments. I know you guys are admitting that they'd still win the state but does anyone really believe they'd do noticeably worse than McCain or Bush?

This would essentially be a repeat of the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race: everyone thinks it could be competitive then it turns into a cakewalk for the Republican nominee partly because of the strength at the top of the ticket.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2011, 06:59:05 PM »
Quote from: Icefire9 on July 11, 2011, 08:13:28 PM
So this is... Scott Brown in reverse?

No, because Scott Brown won.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: July 12, 2011, 07:10:13 PM »
Quote from: HST1948 on July 12, 2011, 05:56:28 PM
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 05:48:47 PM
Quote from: Badger on July 12, 2011, 04:30:02 PM
Quote from: Holmes on July 12, 2011, 04:29:24 PM
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.

Dude, it's UTAH!!

Cool, a Democratic senator that we can all complain about a year or two down the road.

I was just about to post these exact words lol.

Not me. Any time I feel like complaining I would remember two words:

"Jason Chaffetz"
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