GOP doesnt need NM, should focus on states that are safe GOP or lean GOP. Try to get back the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington)
They must win back all of the following:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Virginia
4. One of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.
If they can meet these conditions they have won Indiana, NE-02, and North Carolina, and kept the President from winning Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and maybe Kentucky and/or Tennessee.
The Republicans can also win if they win Pennsylvania as a substitute for Ohio, Virginia, or one of the states in Category 4, Pennsylvania and one of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida, or all four of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida. (Well, rule out Pennsylvania as a practical substitute for Ohio or Virginia because Ohio and Virginia are both more R than Pennsylvania and otherwise similar).