OH/PPP: Brown with double-digit lead

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_05311205.pdf

Sherrod Brown (D) - 51
Ken Blackwell (R) - 33

Sherrod Brown (D) - 51
Kevin Coughlin (R) - 30

Sherrod Brown (D) - 49
Jim Jordan (R) - 31

Sherrod Brown (D) - 48
Josh Mandel (R) - 31

Sherrod Brown (D) - 50
Mary Taylor (R) - 31

Brown's approval is 39/28.

Favorables:

Blackwell - 21/34
Coughlin - 4/16
Jordan - 10/17
Mandel - 15/18
Taylor - 18/18

[TheGlobalizer]

Wow, wheels coming off for the GOP in OH.  Any sense on the ground what's driving this?  The public union stuff?

[Lief 🗽]

Unpopular Republican governor won Brown election, unpopular Republican governor's gonna win Brown re-election.

[Joe Republic]

Wow, wheels coming off for the GOP in OH.  Any sense on the ground what's driving this?  The public union stuff?

I'm no longer on the ground, but Ohio has always bobbed along with whatever direction the national tide is going.

Plus what Lief said.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, you've got a pretty uninspiring Republican field. Nobody wants to see Blackwell back, while Mandel looks like he's about 16 and has been in office for about 5 minutes.

[pbrower2a]

Wow, wheels coming off for the GOP in OH.  Any sense on the ground what's driving this?  The public union stuff?

Just about everything. If you look at the urban Midwest (basically anything east of I-29 from the Canadian border to Kansas City and north of I-70 to from Kansas City to St. Louis, I-64 from St. Louis to the Ohio River, and the Ohio River to the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line, Republicans are in trouble except perhaps in Indiana (a qualification due only to a paucity of polls) and Democrats are doing well except in Illinois (curse you, Rod Blagojevich!). The Republicans ran on promises of economic growth, and all that they have offered so far is tax cuts for the super-rich, union-breaking,  privatization of Medicare, and anti-abortion rhetoric. Neither tax cuts for the super-rich, union-breaking, anti-abortion measures, nor privatization of Medicare is going to create jobs without creating greater hardships.

The urban Midwest has felt the American economy at its rawest. Things are unlikely to get better in any of it before 2012... and this time Republicans are getting the blame.  Even in Missouri, the state that President Obama lost by the barest of margins, the elected Democrats (a Governor and a Senator) are in good shape for 2012. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP party in OH is vacumus, once Kasich ran for governor and Portman, there really isn't no one else out there to fill the void left by them. Brown will win nicely.

[Vosem]

Wow, wheels coming off for the GOP in OH.  Any sense on the ground what's driving this?  The public union stuff?

Three things:
a) Ken Blackwell will lose. Period.
b) No one's heard of anyone else. Those numbers will move up.
c) Yes, Kasich is not exactly a rock star.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wow, wheels coming off for the GOP in OH.  Any sense on the ground what's driving this?  The public union stuff?

Three things:
a) Ken Blackwell will lose. Period.
b) No one's heard of anyone else. Those numbers will move up.
c) Yes, Kasich is not exactly a rock star.

Good news for the Republicans: Blackwell isn't running.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/06/ken_blackwell_will_not_run_for.html

[freepcrusher]

why the hell would Jim Jordan want to run for the senate. He is safe in his own district so why would he want to give that up and second is that he is FAR TOO CONSERVATIVE to win in Ohio. In fact, he could probably only win a senate race in maybe ten states. If they wanted to run a good candidate against Brown, they should run LaTourette.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

why the hell would Jim Jordan want to run for the senate. He is safe in his own district so why would he want to give that up and second is that he is FAR TOO CONSERVATIVE to win in Ohio. In fact, he could probably only win a senate race in maybe ten states. If they wanted to run a good candidate against Brown, they should run LaTourette.

A few things, first while Jordan's right-wing views would certainly make it much harder for him to win, he's could win statewide (depending on who he was running against) in a 2002 type environment.  The reason he's not running is the same as the reason Taylor, Husted, Stivers, Tiberi, etc aren't running: the Ohio Republican Party knows it won't beat Sherrod Brown in 2012 (it is just a question of how much money they can force the Democrats to spend).  Mandel is running despite this b/c he doesn't have to give up his position as Treasurer, it gives him a chance to build name recognition, and if he loses respectably (which shouldn't be too hard) then he can just say that no one expected them to win the race anyway.  Btw, LaTourette wouldn't be such a great candidate.  His base (Lake county and to a lesser degree Geauga county) are already Republican counties and his personal life could be an issue, among other things.  He an affair with a lobbyist that became public in 2004 and handled it by divorcing his wife and marrying his mistress.  His ex-wife endorsed his opponent and went around campaigning against him and talking about how Washington had "corrupted" LaTourette.  It didn't matter then, but it could become an issue in a competitive race against a strong opponent.