Utah, PPP, Republican primary voters -- Romney or nothing?

[pbrower2a]

If the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%
Herman Cain................................................... 4%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 3%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 10%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 5%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 1%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 4%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 63%

If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for President, and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8%
Herman Cain................................................... 4%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 2%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 12%
Ron Paul......................................................... 5%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 2%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 4%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 60%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf

[tmthforu94]

The GOP had better nominate Mitt Romney, or the Beehive State might be shaky for a Republican nominee. Utah has some Democrats, and those would probably be enough to defeat several of those nominees.

Are you on something? Utah is probably the last state in America that'll vote for Obama. Any of these candidates would easily defeat President Obama.

[pbrower2a]

The GOP had better nominate Mitt Romney, or the Beehive State might be shaky for a Republican nominee. Utah has some Democrats, and those would probably be enough to defeat several of those nominees.

Are you on something? Utah is probably the last state in America that'll vote for Obama. Any of these candidates would easily defeat President Obama.

The favorable and unfavorable opinion reports are among Utah Republicans. I don't see how President Obama does among Utah Democrats, but any Republican nominee whose favorability  rating is in the tank among Utah Republicans is not going to get help from such Utah Democrats as there are.

President Obama obviously does not need Utah, but I can just imagine him appearing there to say some good things about Mormons in the event that the Republicans nominate a turkey.

Mitt Romney probably would win the state 75-25 even if President Obama has an approval rating of 55% in Utah. The rest? This all surprises me. Maybe Huckabee would do better than the "rest of the pack", but I can't know that as a certainty.

Take a good look at the Senate race. One potential Democratic nominee is practically even with incumbent Orrin Hatch, and way ahead of any Tea Party challenger in the Republican primary.

It is possible for Republicans to lose Utah with a catastrophically-inept nominee who would lose 40 other states. Not counting the LBJ defeat of Goldwater... Harry Truman won the state with a larger margin than the national average in 1948. FDR won the state four times. Offend enough LDS sensibilities, and Utah is no longer a reliable state for one's campaign.

[pbrower2a]

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[NVGonzalez]

Before anything I would like to throw a big LMAO at Tim Pawlenty's numbers.

I highly doubt no matter who the candidate is that the state of Utah would be in play unless he or she were to murder their own child or be Casey Anthony and even then it would only be a swing state.

[Mechaman]

Is this reality.....or is this fantasy?

[Hash]

Jon Huntsman sucks balls even in his home state.

[Mechaman]

Just a question here to our wise and objective analyzer Pbrower:

When the hell did Utah ever matter?  I mean really.

What election are we talking about here?  2012 or 1900?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jon Huntsman sucks balls even in his home state.

Post of the month.
Thanks Hash!

[pbrower2a]

Before anything I would like to throw a big LMAO at Tim Pawlenty's numbers.

I highly doubt no matter who the candidate is that the state of Utah would be in play unless he or she were to murder their own child or be Casey Anthony and even then it would only be a swing state.

If anything, the large "not sure" numbers may indicate that Utah Republicans are unfamiliar with the 'alternatives' to Mitt Romney -- except Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, and of course Barack Obama.

[Mehmentum]

Just because people in Utah don't like the Republican candidates doesn't mean for a second that they'd consider voting for Obama over them. 

[Mechaman]

Just because people in Utah don't like the Republican candidates doesn't mean for a second that they'd consider voting for Obama over them. 

Oh no it totally does!  A poll on Utah Republican Primary voters and who they like is quite a clear indicator of how the state as a whole will vote!

[Simfan34]

46% unfavorable for Huntsman? 80% approval rating as governor? WTF?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

46% unfavorable for Huntsman? 80% approval rating as governor? WTF?

I can imagine the Republican primary voter subset is a less satisfied with Huntsman than the state as a whole, but a poll showing it at that level does seem a little odd.

[Yelnoc]

46% unfavorable for Huntsman? 80% approval rating as governor? WTF?

I can imagine the Republican primary voter subset is a less satisfied with Huntsman than the state as a whole, but a poll showing it at that level does seem a little odd.

It's a sample size of 406.  Out of a state of nearly 3 million.  I'm calling it a statistical outlier.

[Simfan34]

46% unfavorable for Huntsman? 80% approval rating as governor? WTF?

I can imagine the Republican primary voter subset is a less satisfied with Huntsman than the state as a whole, but a poll showing it at that level does seem a little odd.

It's a sample size of 406.  Out of a state of nearly 3 million.  I'm calling it a statistical outlier.

I sure hope so.

[Mr. Morden]

Can we have some kind of repost of this poll, with the actual head-to-head-to-head matchups listed (in some kind of readable format), rather than just the favorabilities?

[pbrower2a]

Here is the poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf

This is the statewide poll on the US Senate:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_7121118.pdf

From the statewide US Senate poll I came to the conclusion that if a US Senate seat were shaky in Utah, then there are enough Democrats in the state to challenge a weakened Senate candidate.

So far there is no poll for approval of the President. I draw some conclusions that you might not draw. Still, I am satisfied that

(1) Mitt Romney will win the bulk of delegates from Utah in the Republican National Convention

(2) He would absolutely crush President Obama in a landslide within the state  -- but

(3) the low favorability ratings for potential Republican nominees other than Mitt Romney among Republicans could put even Utah at risk of an Obama win.

President Obama has no cause to visit Utah for any political reason should Mitt Romney be the GOP nominee -- except for some natural disaster, and then only because such is the political norm. But President Obama is as crafty a politician as is possible, and even he could use some scenarios for long-term gain for the Democratic Party. He would say some good things about the LDS Church if it were to his political advantage.

Basically, if Republicans want Utah to be a sure thing, then they had better nominate Mitt Romney.

[Mechaman]

Please forgive me for asking this but really dude:

Is your head screwed on right?

You're pretty much saying that since Jim Matheson, a Democrat who is slightly to the left of Dan Boren, has a shot at beating Orin Hatch that if the GOP candidate isn't a Mormon Obama has a shot in hell of winning Utah?
Really dude?

[Tender Branson]

Please forgive me for asking this but really dude:

Is your head screwed on right?

You're pretty much saying that since Jim Matheson, a Democrat who is slightly to the left of Dan Boren, has a shot at beating Orin Hatch that if the GOP candidate isn't a Mormon Obama has a shot in hell of winning Utah?
Really dude?

Well, let's wait what the PPP poll says today or so.

I wouldn't rule out that Palin for example would be in a tie with Obama - IN UTAH.

Everyone else should lead by a comfortable margin of at least 8 points or more.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Please forgive me for asking this but really dude:

Is your head screwed on right?

You're pretty much saying that since Jim Matheson, a Democrat who is slightly to the left of Dan Boren, has a shot at beating Orin Hatch that if the GOP candidate isn't a Mormon Obama has a shot in hell of winning Utah?
Really dude?

that's our pbrower

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's a sample size of 406.  Out of a state of nearly 3 million.

FWIW, a sample size of 406 given a population of 3,000,000 means the margin of error of the poll is merely 4.9% (in the usual 95% confidence interval).

Sure, this could be an outlier, but even the 99% confidence interval is only +/- 6.4%.

[Mechaman]

Please forgive me for asking this but really dude:

Is your head screwed on right?

You're pretty much saying that since Jim Matheson, a Democrat who is slightly to the left of Dan Boren, has a shot at beating Orin Hatch that if the GOP candidate isn't a Mormon Obama has a shot in hell of winning Utah?
Really dude?

Well, let's wait what the PPP poll says today or so.

I wouldn't rule out that Palin for example would be in a tie with Obama - IN UTAH.

Everyone else should lead by a comfortable margin of at least 8 points or more.

I would agree on Palin.  She's made herself so much of a joke that it wouldn't surprise me if Obama had his way with her (metaphorically speaking) in Salt Lake City and carried the state by five points.

Everybody else though, comfortable margin unless someone goes on an all out bash of the LDS.

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman is seen as a centrist in UT (by UT standards).  Not surprising he'd be weak among strong conservatives.

Amusing that Utahns are so deluded about Romney's policies, however.  His stint of governor was well to the left of Huntsman's "centrism".

I don't like the results but I don't think it alters the argument for Huntsman.  I'd like to see a Romney/Huntsman poll for likely GE voters.

[Yelnoc]

It's a sample size of 406.  Out of a state of nearly 3 million.

FWIW, a sample size of 406 given a population of 3,000,000 means the margin of error of the poll is merely 4.9% (in the usual 95% confidence interval).

Sure, this could be an outlier, but even the 99% confidence interval is only +/- 6.4%.

That sounds great but think about it.  Road construction could conceivably block every single one of those people from going to the polls.

Call me odd, but I treat polls with a sample size of under 1000 people as little more then fun numbers.  Pbrower's map is a fairly good indicator of why.