Utah, PPP, Republican primary voters -- Romney or nothing?
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  Utah, PPP, Republican primary voters -- Romney or nothing?
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Author Topic: Utah, PPP, Republican primary voters -- Romney or nothing?  (Read 3139 times)
The Mikado
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« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2011, 11:17:35 AM »

It's a sample size of 406.  Out of a state of nearly 3 million.

FWIW, a sample size of 406 given a population of 3,000,000 means the margin of error of the poll is merely 4.9% (in the usual 95% confidence interval).

Sure, this could be an outlier, but even the 99% confidence interval is only +/- 6.4%.
That sounds great but think about it.  Road construction could conceivably block every single one of those people from going to the polls.

Call me odd, but I treat polls with a sample size of under 1000 people as little more then fun numbers.  Pbrower's map is a fairly good indicator of why.

...

...

Statistics do not work that way.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2011, 11:38:40 AM »

Call me odd, but I treat polls with a sample size of under 1000 people as little more then fun numbers.  Pbrower's map is a fairly good indicator of why.

Statistics do not work that way.

Opinion surveys of highly ideological public figures do.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2011, 02:09:16 PM »

Call me odd, but I treat polls with a sample size of under 1000 people as little more then fun numbers.  Pbrower's map is a fairly good indicator of why.

That is literally the equivalent of saying "Call me odd, but I don't believe in the validity of calculus."

That sounds great but think about it.  Road construction could conceivably block every single one of those people from going to the polls.

No, it conceivably could not. Such a thing would require a natural disaster whose scope is so terribly immense that the outcome of the 2012 presidential election is inconsequential.

Besides, even if the 1:100,000,000,000,000,000 chance of this did come up, it wouldn't matter -- these 406 people are a representative sample of 3,000,000. The 2,999,594 voters NOT affected by road construction would go to the polls and vote exactly the way the poll predicts, plus or minus 4.9% in the 95% confidence interval.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #28 on: July 14, 2011, 05:16:49 PM »

Huntsman is seen as a centrist in UT (by UT standards).  Not surprising he'd be weak among strong conservatives.

Amusing that Utahns are so deluded about Romney's policies, however.  His stint of governor was well to the left of Huntsman's "centrism".

I don't like the results but I don't think it alters the argument for Huntsman.  I'd like to see a Romney/Huntsman poll for likely GE voters.

Deluded would be the word to use when a governor whose approval ratings regularly hit 90% has under 30% favorability ratings in a poll in his own state.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #29 on: July 15, 2011, 01:51:16 AM »

Just because people in Utah don't like the Republican candidates doesn't mean for a second that they'd consider voting for Obama over them. 

     This. Utah is safe Republican, regardless of who is nominated. Let's not kid ourselves & suggest otherwise.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2011, 06:49:48 AM »

Somehow it's taken three pages for someone to post all the matchups:

Romney 63%
Huntsman 10%
Bachmann 6%
Palin 5%
Cain 4%
Paul 4%
Gingrich 3%
Pawlenty 1%

If Palin doesn't run, but Perry does:

Romney 60%
Huntsman 12%
Bachmann 8%
Paul 5%
Cain 4%
Perry 4%
Gingrich 2%
Perry 2%

If the only choices were Huntsman and Romney:

Romney 82%
Huntsman 14%
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