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Author Topic: NH-01/02 - PPP: Guinta in better shape than Bass  (Read 3932 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 14, 2011, 12:42:45 pm »

NH-01:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Frank Guinta’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 24%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carol Shea-Porter?

Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who would you vote for?

Frank Guinta................................................... 48%
Carol Shea-Porter........................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

...

NH-02:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Charlie Bass' job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 29%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ann McLane Kuster?

Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, who would you vote for?

Charlie Bass ................................................... 43%
Ann McLane Kuster ........................................ 42%
Undecided....................................................... 15%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_0713.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2011, 01:44:01 pm »
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Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2011, 02:28:57 pm »
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Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Charlie Bass' job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 29%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

jeez, maybe voting to get rid of Medicare/Medicaid in a Kerry district wasn't the best idea in the world?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2011, 02:42:27 pm »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2011, 03:42:46 pm »
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Someone better primary Bass.
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2011, 04:17:48 pm »
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NH-01 is a low hanging fruit for Democrats (though NH-02 is lower), but CSP is not the person to win the seat back.
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2011, 05:47:44 pm »
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Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?

She's already announced (as has Kuster, for that matter).
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2011, 06:00:34 pm »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Which is funny, because the next topline has him doing just that.
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2011, 06:05:53 pm »
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I though their last batch of NH polls showed Kuster pretty decently ahead of Bass...
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2011, 01:28:06 am »
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Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2011, 02:08:05 am »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Which is funny, because the next topline has him doing just that.

He's up by 1 with 43%. That is absolutely wretched for an incumbent.
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2011, 07:41:34 am »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2011, 09:33:40 am »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

How much has it surged?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2011, 09:39:22 am »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

Nobody with 29-48 favorables is going to get reelected in this district, unless his opponent is Ted Bundy.
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2011, 09:42:56 pm »
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Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

How much has it surged?

Well, statewide...

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Reg%20Voters%20by%20Town%20Ward%202009-11-16.pdf
http://www.sos.nh.gov/Voters%20on%20the%20Checklist%20Booklet%202011-03-01.pdf

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2011, 01:44:24 pm »
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It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2011, 01:48:39 pm »
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Someone better primary Bass.
What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2011, 02:17:29 pm »
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It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.

Where Bass underperformed miserably compared to the rest of the Republican ticket.
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« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2011, 02:34:00 pm »
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Someone better primary Bass.
What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.
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« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2011, 02:38:07 pm »
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Someone better primary Bass.
What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2011, 03:01:04 pm »
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Someone better primary Bass.
What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.

I'm suggesting that may not be the case. Though I concede that the GOP bench isn't very deep, it's as deep as the Democratic bench -- both consist almost exclusively of people who have run for stuff in the past and lost.
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2011, 09:02:44 am »
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Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2011, 01:06:56 am »
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Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.

No it's because after flirting with being a swing state, New Hampshire is starting to trend back to its Republican roots.
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2011, 08:05:27 am »
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I'm not sure that it is becoming a Republican state again (even though I would like to see that), what is clear however is that 2006 and 2008 overstated the strength of the Democrats there.
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2011, 08:26:05 am »
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Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.

No it's because after flirting with being a swing state, New Hampshire is starting to trend back to its Republican roots.

No the Republicans rigged the election. Stop telling lies.
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