NH-01/02 - PPP: Guinta in better shape than Bass

[Tender Branson]

NH-01:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Frank Guinta’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 24%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carol Shea-Porter?

Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who would you vote for?

Frank Guinta................................................... 48%
Carol Shea-Porter........................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

...

NH-02:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Charlie Bass' job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 29%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ann McLane Kuster?

Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, who would you vote for?

Charlie Bass ................................................... 43%
Ann McLane Kuster ........................................ 42%
Undecided....................................................... 15%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_0713.pdf

[Former Moderate]

Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?

[Lіef]

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Charlie Bass' job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 29%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

jeez, maybe voting to get rid of Medicare/Medicaid in a Kerry district wasn't the best idea in the world?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

[redcommander]

Someone better primary Bass.

[Holmes]

NH-01 is a low hanging fruit for Democrats (though NH-02 is lower), but CSP is not the person to win the seat back.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?

She's already announced (as has Kuster, for that matter).

[Dgov]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Which is funny, because the next topline has him doing just that.

[MilesC56]

I though their last batch of NH polls showed Kuster pretty decently ahead of Bass...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Which is funny, because the next topline has him doing just that.

He's up by 1 with 43%. That is absolutely wretched for an incumbent.

[Former Moderate]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

How much has it surged?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

Nobody with 29-48 favorables is going to get reelected in this district, unless his opponent is Ted Bundy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

How much has it surged?

Well, statewide...

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Reg%20Voters%20by%20Town%20Ward%202009-11-16.pdf
http://www.sos.nh.gov/Voters%20on%20the%20Checklist%20Booklet%202011-03-01.pdf

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

[Former Moderate]

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.

[Vasall des Midas]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

[Landslide Lyndon]

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.

Where Bass underperformed miserably compared to the rest of the Republican ticket.

[Former Moderate]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

[Meeker]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.

[Former Moderate]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.

I'm suggesting that may not be the case. Though I concede that the GOP bench isn't very deep, it's as deep as the Democratic bench -- both consist almost exclusively of people who have run for stuff in the past and lost.

[I left.]

Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.

[redcommander]

Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.

No it's because after flirting with being a swing state, New Hampshire is starting to trend back to its Republican roots.

[Heimdal]

I'm not sure that it is becoming a Republican state again (even though I would like to see that), what is clear however is that 2006 and 2008 overstated the strength of the Democrats there.

[I left.]

Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

Because the election was rigged, of course.

No it's because after flirting with being a swing state, New Hampshire is starting to trend back to its Republican roots.

No the Republicans rigged the election. Stop telling lies.