NH-01/02 - PPP: Guinta in better shape than Bass

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Someone better primary Bass.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.

I'm suggesting that may not be the case. Though I concede that the GOP bench isn't very deep, it's as deep as the Democratic bench -- both consist almost exclusively of people who have run for stuff in the past and lost.