New Zealand Style Apportionment - 2010 Update

[jimrtex]

This is an updated version of the previous thread apportioning the House of Representative based on race, similar to the method used in New Zealand for apportioning Maori electorates.

In New Zealand, persons are classified as Maori or non-Maori in the census, and also on the electoral rolls.  In addition, a Maori voter may choose to be placed on the Maori or general electoral roll.  Maori voters who chose the Maori roll, vote in districts limited to Maori voters, while those who choose the general roll vote with other voters.  The two sets of districts (NZ calls them "electorates") overlay the entire country.

Electorates are based on the census population.  So if in a given locality, 37% of the Maori voters choose the Maori electoral roll, then 37% of the Maori population in that locality is attributed to defining the Maori electorates, while the other 67% plus the rest of the population is used in delineating the general electorates.

There are currently 7 Maori electorates, with one including all of South Island plus crossing the Cook Strait to include part of Wellington.

Mapping application of NZ electorates

In applying this system to the USA, I started with the 6 racial categories used by the census: White, Black or African American, Asian, American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN); Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NHOPI); and Some Other Race, as well as the Hispanic status.  I assumed that there was no general roll, or alternatively, that all voters chose the roll specific to their race.

On the US census, persons may classify themselves as belonging to any combination of the 6 racial categories.  Hispanic is an independent classification.  I have included all Hispanics, regardless of race, in the Hispanic classification.  Non-Hispanics were reduced to 6 single race classifications, and 3 mixed-race classifications: White-Black, White-AIAN, and White-Asian.  If persons who specified more than one race, included Some Other Race, then that was discarded.  Under this system, only those who were Some Other Race alone were placed on the Other race roll.  Combinations of 2 or more races were reduced to subsets of the combination with one less member.  That is, persons of 4 races, were redistributed equally among 4 3-race combinations.  This process was repeated until all persons were in one of the 5 single-race groups or 5 2-race combinations.

Class	2000	2010	Change
White	302	278	-24
Hispanic	55	71	+16
Black	53	54	+1
Asian	16	21	+5
AIAN	3	3	0
NHOPI	1	1	0
Other	1	1	0
White + Black	1	2	+1
White + AIAN	2	2	0
White + Asian	1	2	+1

[jimrtex]

White 2000 (302 representatives)


Delaware and District Columbia form a single district, as do Alaska and Hawaii.  Vermont is just short of the population for a single district, and Wyoming has about 2/3 of the population, but no neighbors to share the district with.

White 2010 (278 representatives)


24 representatives were lost: CA(4), NY(3), PA(2), OH(2), NJ(2), TX(1), FL(1), IL(1), MI(1), VA(1), MA(1), MN(1), KY(1), MD(1), MS(1), WV(1), with no states gaining.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Interesting that even the states that are growing the fastest (Texas, Florida) actually lost White representatives under this system.

[jimrtex]

Interesting that even the states that are growing the fastest (Texas, Florida) actually lost White representatives under this system.

A population would have to increase 9.9% just to main relative share.   The Texas Anglo population increased 4.0%.

MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD, OH, MI, IL, IA, KS, MS, LA, and CA had net losses in the Anglo population.

[jimrtex]

Hispanic 2000 (55 representatives)

There are 44 representatives from 9 states with one or more representatives, and 11 multi-state districts.

MA is 3/4 of New England.   Ct is 1/3 of North Atlantic.  PA is about 2/3 of Pennsylvania-Ohio.  MI is a little over 1/2 of MWI.  NC and VA have roughly equal shares of North Carolina-Virginia.  IN is 3/8 of Central, with TN and MO having about 1/5 each.  KS and OK have about 1/3 each of Great Plains.  UT has about 1/3 of Utah-North Plains, with MN about 1/4.  NV has about 4/7 of Nevada-Oregon.   WA has about 4/5 of Northwest.

Hispanic 2010 (71 representatives)

16 representatives were added.  The number of multi-state districts remain the same despite 5 states, WA, NV, GA, NC, and PA becoming single state districts.  Other gains were: TX(4), CA(3), FL(2), IL(1), AZ(1).

MA is about 9/10 of New England.  CT is 7/10 of North Atlantic.  MD is 2/3 of South Atlantic, with the other 1/3 in South Carolina.  VA is 9/10 of Virginias.  TN is 2/5 of Southeast and AL is about 1/4.  IN is slightly larger than OH in Indiana-Ohio.  MI is about 4/7 of Wisconsin-Michigan.  MO and LA are the largest in Mississippi Valley, though AR and IA are not far behind.  OK and KS are about 2/5 each of Great Plains.  UT is 1/2 of Utah-North Plains, with MN about 1/3.  OR is about 4/7 of Northwest.

[jimrtex]

Black 2000 (53 representatives)

46 of the 53 representatives are from single states, and 7 from multistate districts.  

Apportionment was done in three steps.  First the 435 districts were apportioned by racial group using Webster's method.  Then an apportionment of the 53 seats were done among the states entitled to 1.0 or more representatives, with the smaller states considered collectively, and finally the multi-state districts were created.  In this case, the multi-state area got an unlucky rounding (7 seats based on a raw entitlement of 7.63).  As a result the districts were somewhat large, and the odd shapes were used to better equalize population.

MA and CT each form about 1/2 of New England, with the other 4 states less than 1/10.  DC forms 3/5 of DC-DE-WV and DE about 1/4.  IN is about 3/5 of INKY.  MO is 9/10 of Missouri-Plains, and is almost entitled to a seat in its own right.  AR is about 3/5 of Southwest and OK about 1/3.  CO, AZ, and KS are each just over 1/5 of West, with NV just under 1/5.  WI is about 2/5 of Northwest, with WA and MN each at about 1/4.

Black 2000 (54 representatives)

Initially 46 of 54 representatives were apportioned to single state districts, and 8 from multistate districts.  Subsequently, Missouri and Indiana were created as single state districts.

There was no change in the apportionment of the single state districts.  Despite this, there was considerable change in the distribution and ranking of the states, with New York dropping from 1st to 4th, and Georgia advancing from 3rd to 1st.

2000: NY, TX, GA, FL, CA, IL NC, MD, LA, MI
2001: GA, TX, FL, NY, CA, NC, IL, MD, VA, LA

The 8th multi-state district was  created in the west, which permitted creation of more compact districts, with the old Northwest district that stretched from Wisconsin to Washington being split.  In addition Missouri (entitled to 0.982 representatives) was set off as its own district.  In the east, Kentucky was shifted to the DC-DE-WV grouping and Indiana set off as its own district.  This was primarily cause by the loss of black population in the District of Columbia (12% in absolute terms).

MA forms 1/2 and CT 2/5 of New England, with the other 4 states less than 1/9.  KY and DC each form a little over 1/3 of Kentucky-East, with DE at about 1/5.  WI forms 1/2 of Upper Mississippi, and MN just short of 1/4.  AR forms 3/5 of Arkansas-Oklahoma and OK 2/5.  AZ forms about 1/3 of West, with CO and KS around 1/4.   WA and NV each form about 1/3 of Northwest.

[muon2]

I found it interesting that IL got 3 black and 2 Hispanic seats in your 2010 division, despite the fact that IL has more Hispanics than blacks now. How close was IL to getting a third Hispanic seat, and who would be at a loss if they had?

[jimrtex]

I found it interesting that IL got 3 black and 2 Hispanic seats in your 2010 division, despite the fact that IL has more Hispanics than blacks now. How close was IL to getting a third Hispanic seat, and who would be at a loss if they had?

I think you swapped the 2010 and 2000 results.  Illinois gained a 3rd Hispanic seat.  Illinois is at some risk of losing its 3rd Black district in 2020.  As you may know, Illinois had a small loss in Black population, and its raw entitlement was 2.616.  With relatively small apportionments, States might get unlucky in the rounding.

Florida, Georgia, and Texas all went from just past 3.5 to past 4, and if that is repeated, they would be past 4.5.  Tennessee and Maryland are possible gainers.  While New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Mississippi would be most at risk of loss.

[jimrtex]

Asian 2000 (16 representatives)

8 of the 16 representatives are from single states, 6 from California and 2 from New York.   The other 8 representatives are from multistate districts.  Texas, New Jersey, Hawaii, Illinois, and Washington each have the population for more than 1/2 of a representative and form the core of their districts.  Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio are major centers in Midwest, while Florida and Georgia are major centers in the Southeast.

New England has about enough population for 4/7 a representative, too small to stand alone, but too large to be combined with New Jersey, thus the somewhat odd combination with Virginia and West Virginia.  Hawaii is paired with Arizona and Nevada because it is too large to pair with Washington.

VA and MA both form about 2/5 of New England-Virginia.  NJ forms about 2.3 of New Jersey-Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia, with MD about 3/10.  PA, MI, and OH form about 1/3, 1/4, and 1/5, respectively, of Midwest.  Illinois is 3/5 of Upper Mississippi with Minnesota about 1/5.  FL form 2/5, and GA 1/4 of Southeast.  TX is 4/5 of Texas-South Central.  WA is about 1/2 of NW, with OR and CO around 1/7.  HI is 3/4 of Hawaii-Southwest, with AZ and NV about 1/8 each.

Asian 2010 (21 representatives)

11 of the 21 representatives are from single states, 7 from California, 2 from New York, 1 from Texas and 1 New Jersey.  California gains one, and Texas and New Jersey gain their first.  For 2020, Illinois is a likely candidate for its own district, with Washington, Florida, and Georgia possibilities.  California and Texas will likely each gain another district.  10 of the districts are multistate districts, an increase of 2.

New England and Hawaii-Alaska are a bit underpopulated, but due to their isolation would be hard to combine with others.

MA is about 5/8 of New England (1/2 of an ideal district), and CT is about 1/4.  Both PA and MD are around 1/2 of Pennsylvania-Maryland, with minor contributions form DE and DC.  VA is 3/5 of Virginia-Carolinas, with NC around 3/10.  FL is 3/5 of Florida-Georgia, with GA the remaining 2/5.  MI is 1/3 of Midwest, and OH just over 1/4.  IL is 6/7 of Illinois-Missouri.  MN and NV are about 3/10 of North Central, with WI at 1/5.   AZ is 1/4 of SC, with CO at 1/5, and LA, KS, and OK around 1/10.  WA is 3/4 of Northwest, with Oregon about 2/5.  HI is 93% of Hawaii-Alaska and about 4/5 of the ideal district size.