Mitt Romney & Massachusetts

[HST1948]

 If I am correct, the last time that a Republican won a single county in the state was George H.W Bush in the 1988 presidential election. So, if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will he carry any counties or congressional districts in his "home" state of Massachusetts? and if so which one's?   

[tmthforu94]

Mitt Romney won't come close to winning Massachusetts, but I do think he'll hit 40%. I could see him possibly winning Plymouth County, maybe Worcester and a couple others in a landslide.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Probably Plymouth, yeah.

[Devils30]

maybe win a county or 2 but prolly not the state

[RIP Robert H Bork]

If I am correct, the last time that a Republican won a single county in the state was George H.W Bush in the 1988 presidential election. So, if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will he carry any counties or congressional districts in his "home" state of Massachusetts? and if so which one's?   

No. He left Mssachusetts after the 2006 election with a 65% disapproval rating and even in 2010, if I remember correctly, the MA Republican party had to prevent Romney from campaiging for Scott Brown.

[tmthforu94]

If I am correct, the last time that a Republican won a single county in the state was George H.W Bush in the 1988 presidential election. So, if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will he carry any counties or congressional districts in his "home" state of Massachusetts? and if so which one's?   

No. He left Mssachusetts after the 2006 election with a 65% disapproval rating and even in 2010, if I remember correctly, the MA Republican party had to prevent Romney from campaiging for Scott Brown.

First off, some polling did show Romney's approval in the mid-40's, so I think you're just taking the worst poll you can find from the end of his term and running with it. Part of the reason's Romney's approvals were so low is that he wasn't running for reelection, he was spending a lot of time out of state to prepare for his Presidential run, and it was overall just a bad year for Republicans.

A poll in late December 2010 shows Romney with a 40% favorably among Massachusetts voters. Not a great number, but much higher than anyone else who will face Obama. Polls has shown Romney to be breaking 40% against Obama, and if he does, he'd likely carry at least Plymouth County.

If Massachusetts doesn't like him so much, why did he win the Massachusetts Primary in 2008?

[Roemerista]

The Mass GOP is hardly Mass. I know very few people in MA that support Mitt, and no one who is excited about  him. I suspect he will get quite a bit less than Baker did in the gov race.

[Paul Kemp]

There's a reason Romney didn't run for re-election.

[tmthforu94]

There's a reason Romney didn't run for re-election.

Yeah, because he was gearing up for a Presidential run. Romney probably knew going into his first term that he wouldn't seek reelection.

[Mechaman]

There's a reason Romney didn't run for re-election.

Yeah, because he was gearing up for a Presidential run. Romney probably knew going into his first term that he wouldn't seek reelection.

"BlahblahblahRomneyinvincibleblahblahblahSexgodblahblah."

In other words his job performance was sucking because he cared more about his Presidential run than he did doing the job he had?
Yeah, that will go over perfectly with the people of Massachusetts:
"I did a bad job towards the end of my term because I was gearing up to run for a cooler office than this."
Yeah, I'm sure the understanding people of Massachusetts would cut him some slack.  It's so much easier to forgive a politician for sucking at the job if you knew he was ready to ditch your taxpaying ass than that he just sucked at it.
Makes perfect sense.

[tpfkaw]

He spent nearly the entire second half of his term out of state campaigning for president (his stump speech generally consisted of cracking jokes about what an awful state Massachusetts is), only coming back in order to expand state government more than any governor of any state ever.

It's not surprising that he ended his term the most unpopular governor of the state in living memory.  Nobody liked him.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There's a reason Romney didn't run for re-election.

Yeah, because he was gearing up for a Presidential run. Romney probably knew going into his first term that he wouldn't seek reelection.

So you basically admitted Romney cared only about getting a platform to launch his presidential run and wasted about half of his term pissing off his constituents in order to make better terms with out-of-Massachusetts Republican base.

That's exactly a man with commitment.

Whatever bad thing you can say about Bachmann, I can bet she didn't come to the office in 2007 with "oh, I'll just serve out three terms and then I will run for President" plan.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

If I am correct, the last time that a Republican won a single county in the state was George H.W Bush in the 1988 presidential election. So, if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will he carry any counties or congressional districts in his "home" state of Massachusetts? and if so which one's?   

No. He left Mssachusetts after the 2006 election with a 65% disapproval rating and even in 2010, if I remember correctly, the MA Republican party had to prevent Romney from campaiging for Scott Brown.

First off, some polling did show Romney's approval in the mid-40's, so I think you're just taking the worst poll you can find from the end of his term and running with it. Part of the reason's Romney's approvals were so low is that he wasn't running for reelection, he was spending a lot of time out of state to prepare for his Presidential run, and it was overall just a bad year for Republicans.

Well, first, I said quite clearly that that was his final approval/disapproval rating as governor. As far as your reason, I think you have it backwards; Romney didn't run for re-election because of his lousy approval rating, not the other way around.  Further, retiring from the office of Governor never helps a Presidential candidate. I recall that George W. Bush had his eyes on the White House in 1998, but he didn't leave the office of Governor until his election as President. Nor do I buy the excuse of it being a bad year for Republicans; most voters know how to separate local and federal politics, and as far as the 2006 gubernatorial election was concerned, the disapproval clearly was with Romney.

EDIT: What Kalwejt said. If, as you claim, Romney left Massachusetts after 1 term just to run for president, he's even worse than he would have been otherwise.

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That doesn't mean it will happen. Obama can always remind voters of Romney's governorship, and if Bay Staters didn't like it in 2006, they won't in 2012.

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Massachusetts Republicans != Massachusetts.

[tmthforu94]

If I am correct, the last time that a Republican won a single county in the state was George H.W Bush in the 1988 presidential election. So, if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will he carry any counties or congressional districts in his "home" state of Massachusetts? and if so which one's?   

No. He left Mssachusetts after the 2006 election with a 65% disapproval rating and even in 2010, if I remember correctly, the MA Republican party had to prevent Romney from campaiging for Scott Brown.

First off, some polling did show Romney's approval in the mid-40's, so I think you're just taking the worst poll you can find from the end of his term and running with it. Part of the reason's Romney's approvals were so low is that he wasn't running for reelection, he was spending a lot of time out of state to prepare for his Presidential run, and it was overall just a bad year for Republicans.

Well, first, I said quite clearly that that was his final approval/disapproval rating as governor. As far as your reason, I think you have it backwards; Romney didn't run for re-election because of his lousy approval rating, not the other way around.  Further, retiring from the office of Governor never helps a Presidential candidate. I recall that George W. Bush has his eyes on the White House in 1998, but he didn't leave the office of Governor until his election as President. Nor do I buy the excuse of it being a bad year for Republicans; most voters know how to separate local and federal politics, and as far as the 2006 gubernatorial election was concerned, the disapproval clearly was with Romney.

EDIT: What Kalwejt said. If, as you claim, Romney left Massachusetts after 1 term just to run for president, he's even worse than he would have been otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That doesn't mean it will happen. Obama can always remind voters of Romney's governorship, and if Bay Staters didn't like it in 2006, they won't in 2012.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Massachusetts Republicans != Massachusetts.

I personally disagree with your assessment that Romney didn't run for reelection due to low approvals, but neither of us really have any proof to that, as well as to what Romney's real intentions were, so I'll let that rest.

Many good politicians have lost because their party was facing a tough year - Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island is a good example of this. Democrats success in 2006 and 2008 was not only at the federal level, but at the state and local levels as well. We had a great State Rep candidate here in Indiana who lost in 2008, narrowly, then turned around in 2010 and won by 2010. The national mood has a heavy effect on local races.

I was never suggesting "Massachusetts Republicans != Massachusetts." But I think it shows he at least has a certain bit of popularity in the state if he can win the GOP primary there. 2012 polling has also shown him with massive leads over anyone else.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Further, retiring from the office of Governor never helps a Presidential candidate. I recall that George W. Bush has his eyes on the White House in 1998, but he didn't leave the office of Governor until his election as President.

I read somewhere that Clinton seriously considered retiring as Governor in 1990 in order to have more time to prepare for his presidential bid, but decided against it. He probably knew that's not good idea.

Of course there were former Governors who get elected, like Carter and Reagan. But Carter was term-limited in 1975 and Reagan, while technically permitted to run for third term, already served two, instead of one (and didn't spend half of his Governorship like Mitt did).

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

[tmthforu94]

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

Is that a state law? Biden did it in 2008.

[Mechaman]

Tmth, how would you feel if you are dating this girl for eight months and for no reason she starts treating you like crap for the last four months?  Later on after you two break up you find out that she treated you like crap because she was planning to ditch you for the coolest guy in school (you know the extremely nice and cool guy who doesn't deserve a bitch girlfriend).  Would you really stand by and just go "meh Johnny Giovanni is a really cool guy and it's okay you treated me like crap because you really wanted to go out with Johnny who is a nice guy"?

Because politically speaking that is what Mitt Romney did (at least according to Wormyguy, a resident of Massachusetts, said) to the residents of Massachusetts.  Tell me, why should Massachusetts approve of Mitt's relationship with America if he treated them like crap?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

Is that a state law? Biden did it in 2008.

I'd need to check that. Johnson in 1960, Bentsen in 1988, Lieberman in 2000 and Biden in 2008 all ran for both Vice Presidency and Senate at the same time.

However, running for both President and Senate at the same time would be pretty controversial and, thus, politically risky.

[tmthforu94]

If Massachusetts doesn't like him so much, why did he win the Massachusetts Primary in 2008?

A whopping 51.12% of Massachusetts Republicans. 48.88% of Massachusetts Republicans preferred another candidate than the guy who had been governor two years ago. Compare that to Mike Huckabee, who got 60% in his own state.

But let's look at the forum at large. I don't think there's one Massachusetts poster here who has a positive opinion of him, whether right-wing or left-wing. Wormyguy, Dallasfan, Moderate, Officepark, etc.

Let's also remember that at this time, the momentum was clearly in McCain's corner and a good majority of that 48% went to McCain. Romney was leading by over 30 points in a Rasmussen poll in late July. The only reason that went down was McCain victories in other states.

[Mechaman]

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

Is that a state law? Biden did it in 2008.

I'd need to check that. Johnson in 1960, Bentsen in 1988, Lieberman in 2000 and Biden in 2008 all ran for both Vice Presidency and Senate at the same time.

However, running for both President and Senate at the same time would be pretty controversial and, thus, politically risky.

^^^^
This.

And mind you that a lot states have their own laws in regard to election laws.  I remember when we were doing Americana my character (Scott Westman) couldn't run for re-election to the US Senate for Montana while also running for President because there was no part of Montana state law that allowed him to run for two offices at once.  Sure, that's a fictional example but I'm pretty sure other examples exist in real life.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I personally disagree with your assessment that Romney didn't run for reelection due to low approvals, but neither of us really have any proof to that, as well as to what Romney's real intentions were, so I'll let that rest.

Many good politicians have lost because their party was facing a tough year - Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island is a good example of this. Democrats success in 2006 and 2008 was not only at the federal level, but at the state and local levels as well. We had a great State Rep candidate here in Indiana who lost in 2008, narrowly, then turned around in 2010 and won by 2010. The national mood has a heavy effect on local races.

Correct, and Chafee was a Senator, not a Governor. The federal issues at the time had nothing to do with the 2006 gubernatorial election, and I doubt that Bush or the Iraq War were even mentioned during either party's campaign for Governor. Once again, the unpopularity was with Romney, and in the gubernatorial election, it was Romney and his governorship that the Democratic Party attacked.

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

Is that a state law? Biden did it in 2008.

(Disclaimer: I don't actually know this for certain) As far as I know, vice-presidential candidates do run for re-election to the Senate at the same time, but not presidential candidates. In Biden's case, he ran for president, dropped out, ran for Senate, and then became Obama's running mate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, outside of the governor's circle, can you imagine Hillary retiring in 2006 due to 2008 presidential bid? Edwards did retire in 2004 but because he couldn't for White House and reelection at the same time.

Is that a state law? Biden did it in 2008.

I'd need to check that. Johnson in 1960, Bentsen in 1988, Lieberman in 2000 and Biden in 2008 all ran for both Vice Presidency and Senate at the same time.

However, running for both President and Senate at the same time would be pretty controversial and, thus, politically risky.

^^^^
This.

And mind you that a lot states have their own laws in regard to election laws.  I remember when we were doing Americana my character (Scott Westman) couldn't run for re-election to the US Senate for Montana while also running for President because there was no part of Montana state law that allowed him to run for two offices at once.  Sure, that's a fictional example but I'm pretty sure other examples exist in real life.

We kind of repeated that in a continuation, when Jefferson Dent's seat was up for reelection in 1992 and he, instead of retiring, moved to the Governor's office in 1990.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, it's just a guess, but I'm pretty sure Kerry decided against running again in 2008 because of his seat being open this year.

[Vermin Supreme]

Mitt Romney was too focused on his presidential bid in 2008 to run reelection for governor. At the end of his governorship, Romney approval ratings were right down in the dump. Deval Patrick is more well approval by the people then Romney and when I talk to my Massachusetts natives about Patrick, they have strong negative reaction to him.


I would predict that Romney will win Plymouth and Worcester in 2012.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Also, it's just a guess, but I'm pretty sure Kerry decided against running again in 2008 because of his seat being open this year.

I agree with this, but I disagree with the reason. I think he just didn't want to risk losing a second time. (And, in my opinion, he wouldn't even get past the primary.)

Which I find a bit unfortunate, actually; the time when you could lose the presidency and then win a la Nixon is over; these days, you only get your one shot at the White House. Even if he were younger, I doubt McCain would run in 2012 for the same reason.