Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You mistake thinking the ALP is really about left and right... because in the end, they want a face that will argue their points and win them the election.

I mean, Gillard was installed by the right factions....

The Australian voting public is just as fickle as the US one... can the ALP win the next election... perhaps... but can the Coalition lose it? Absolutely. I think the ALP poll numbers will re-bound a little, as the carbon price issue has been slightly neutralised for some.

And Hugh is absolutely right, Abbott is the Libs Achilles's Heel - he's a reason why Rudd lost his mojo and his job - but he's also the reason they didn't win enough seats last year... people just don't like him... consider that there's about a 17-20% gap in Primary votes and about 16-18% TPP gap... yet Abbott is only JUST ahead of Gillard as preferred PM. He's an outstanding Opposition Leader, he goes for the jugular at every opportunity and will just be as negative as possible. But when you're in a minority government situation, the term 'Alternative PM' really matters.  And it seems to me that Gillard's big drop in popularity is more about disappointment than genuine dislike for most.

Consider this argument, I have been harassing friends relatively high up in the ALP for weeks over this... imagine Gillard making this comment...

"Under our carbon pricing arrangement, we have made sure that almost 80% of households will be fully compensated for any related price increases, in fact, with increased pensions, family assistance and tax cuts, many will be financially better off under this arrangement.

Tony Abbott says he will deliver those benefits and bring the Budget into surplus without either the super-profits mining tax or the carbon price on our biggest carbon emitters.

How?

As usual, he's making promises to the Australian people, without a clear plan as to how he's going to do it. He says he'll sack hard-working Australians in the public service, up to 12,000... but even that wouldn't even reach 5% of the money he'd need to keep all of his promises. Either he's confused in his maths, he's lying to us or we will see a bloodbath of vital services and programs cut... so I ask all Australians to ask Tony Abbott, how will you do this? and if you're not lying to us... what are you going to cut? What vital services will be on the chopping block? "

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

I can't see an election being called early (this has been my opinion since, well, since both sides were negotiating with the independents). It's not in Labor's best interests, it's not in the Greens' best interests, and it's certainly not in the best interests of the independents, who will either be unseated, or at the very least lose their balance of power position. A double dissolution requires the passage of legislation in one house, with the same legislation being blocked or unacceptably amended by the other house (and for this to happen with the same piece of legislation a couple of times). With a minority in both houses, I can't see anything passing one house but not the other - I suspect anything will almost certainly fail to pass both houses, or would pass both houses.

Exactly right - there's virtually no chance for an early-election. The Independents have made their beds and Andrew Wilkie who I think is a self-aggrandising fool, wouldn't dare handing Abbott Government, because his seat is a left-wing seat and he'd be out on his arse.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What I'm arguing isn't that Wilkie could trigger the election which would install the Abbott as PM.

Mind you, by locking himself into a rock-solid position he's shown his lack of political instinct and I think has guaranteed his losing however the election happens... in order to survive in politics (despite all of those 'liar and flip-flop' taunts) is to be flexible - and he's about as inflexible as it comes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree - they waste too much time trying to show how similar they are to the Coalition, when, considering Abbott is leader, the ALP's best chance is to show a strong contrast to them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

The point that both Hugh and I are making is that the ALP isn't toxic... I think people genuinely want a reason to support Gillard. They support Abbott out of frustration and the sense that the Government is directionless.

There is some genuine shift to the Coalition no doubt... but not as much as they think.

Plus, in Australia blow-out elections are rare, and 10%+ TPP vote margins are almost unheard of.

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic. 

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

Bob Brown isn't a Nick Clegg though. I don't see potential change voters voting for him over the Coalition. The Greens if anything make it more difficult for Labor to win against Abbott. Of course they could always take another chance, and bring Rudd back.

The Greens don't really make it too hard, the people who hated the Green still do - and the Greens' primary vote hasn't changed .

I can tell you 75% of ALP parliamentarians would rather lose than bring Rudd back... plus with how unpleasant the environment is... he'd probably rather wait once the next election is over with.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New Newspoll out today

Primary vote
ALP: 29 -
Coalition: 45 -4
Greens: 15 +3 (equals their PV record)

TPP
Coalition: 54 -3
ALP: 46 +3

Satisfaction

Gillard
Satisfied: 30+2
Dissatisfied: 61+1

Abbott
Satisfied: 34 -2
Disatisfied: 56 +3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.news.com.au/national/november-coup-plotted-on-julia-gillard-pressure-on-kevin-rudd-to-push-for-top-job/story-e6frfkvr-1226184111748

New story out today... now this is from a NewsCorp paper, which always makes me extremely unsure. Plus Gillard is in France for the G20 right now, so it adds more excitement.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What's the likely outcome here? Does Rudd have the balls to pull a Heseltine? Anyhoo, I don't see it salvaging Lab's prospects despite a dead cat's polling bounce.

You see, this is what Hugh and I have been arguing, the ALP's prospects while grim now, could rebound quite strongly, the ALP have been fighting the wrong fights, in the wrong way, for the wrong reasons... This week saw the first real cohesive attacks ON Abbott - the ALP can certainly win back some ground. This to me is their best chance, don't try to play Abbott on his territory and stop letting him direct the agenda - start being creative and start showing a contrast to Abbott, rather than how similar you are.

Chances are... if Rudd is going to try (which honestly, I find odd) he would need to do it soon, but after the Carbon and Mining Tax Bills are passed... because there are two alternatives.

a) If Gillard is able to gain some traction in the polls, and they aren't going to replace someone with whom they're frustrated, with someone they still hate, if there's a chance she could recover.

b) Rudd leaves it too late, if Gillard doesn't recover, chances are Rudd will go down with the ship. He's not going to try if he weren't sure he would win the next election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?

A bit, and the fact that Tony Abbott's hated too. The last few weeks have gone well for the government as well, not taking any bait from the Coalition, the Queen's visit for example.

I think it does reflect that idea of people wanting a reason to support Gillard.

Seriously? Qantas? She got tipped off three hours early that they were grounding flights, refused to call Joyce (who, let's face it, was only doing it so it would go before Fairwork Australia), didn't send I to Fairwork Australia and just generally did nothing, leaving it for the NSW an Victorian state  governments to refer it. If she'd acted in the three hours between finding out and when they were to be grounded, the entire crisis could have been averted. At the very least, she could have phoned Joyce and told him she'd refer it if he postponed the lockout until Monday morning - which would have prevented it. I think it was extremely poorly handled.

I disagree with this entirely. Joyce had planned the lockout for at least a week before it happened - Opposition members, including the Shadow Treasurer knew that it was coming... and did nothing (you'd think that Minority Government would have encouraged a bit of pro-activity). The Prime Minister was told was 2pm Saturday but keep in mind that Joyce said that he was wasn't asking the Government to do anything ... he did it as a courtesy. The Government had issued the request to FWA by 6:30pm that  night... 4.5 hours to get an emergency tribunal hearing organised is actually pretty impressive. And there's absolutely no evidence that Gillard or Albanese knew the grounding was coming... yet the Opposition did?

It was clearly a tactic from Joyce to get the Government to react - but there was no actual formal attempt to get the Government to intervene BEFORE. Which I find it all amusing... the Coalition would prefer none of FWA would exist... but this shows the FWA WORKS... but it was QANTAS's shock tactics that forced this to happen - when Joyce had plenty of options - for example... he could have asked FWA to intervene, he could have threatened the grounding (ie 24 hours warning).

Gillard came out of this looking relatively good, despite the Coalition attempts and Abbott and especially Hockey looked bad because it brought back the Libs biggest weak-spot. When Abbott and Hockey essentially defended Joyce's actions over the workers and the 75,000 stranded travellers - regardless of the reason - it looked REALLY bad and brought back memories of the WorkChoices issue. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For heaven's sake, why won't the Liberals throw Abbott on the dump? He's the weak link that might keep them from winning the next general election. I'm sure the party must have at least one competent and likable person.

Again... 'Achilles Heel' - Abbott's effectiveness with negativity is what puts them where they are. Without Abbott, you'd have to wonder how well they'd do.

But the ONLY real credible alternative for the Libs is Turnbull, who is pretty much on the wrong side on most of the key issues the Libs are now advocating. Turnbull is the only Lib I would vote for... which tells you something. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?

The rule is that you get one waiver post-coup before a long stay in opposition. Oz 1993, UK 1992, Canada 2004. That waiver was used last year. Among the many differences, Keating probably didn't have openly bubbling intraparty dissent to the point of detailed coup rumors.

I don't think you can put rules like that on it.

Plus, if Gillard gains traction the active dissent will quieten down - my view is that if Gillard can establish a lead or even makes it level-pegging... my guts says she'll be untouchable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Re: Smid and Polnut

Smid is almost never a total hack for the Liberals, but to suggest that Labor did worse out of it is just ridiculous. The Liberals were unorganised, hypocritical, and secretive about knowledge that could have helped prevent this well in advance.

I don't think it was a great moment in ALP leadership, but I do think the government handled it well enough in the circumstances, and I definitely think the Liberals completely missed the mark, as they are in the process of doing with Superannuation. I don't want to get too excited, but I get the feeling the Libs are getting incredibly frustrated with life.


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As far as Gillard's untouchability...way too early to say that yet, but I would say with a straight face that she is the more likely winner of the next election.

To be fair I did put caveats on that

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why hasn't anyone challenged Abbott? The Coalition has plenty of people who aren't... well as far right as him.

Because Abbott is the reason they nearly took down a first-term Government, and that Government got rid of a PM... the moderates put up with those right-wing nutbags because Abbott is an effective opposition leader. They know they can do well by appealing to the lowest common-denominator... nobody is better with that group than Abbott.

There are only 3 people who I see as being 'capable' of being leader, but each have their problems..

Malcolm Turnbull - a social liberal - considered a cultural elitist
Joe Hockey - tried before - a moderate - BUT is awful in interviews and has 'Beazley syndrome' - named after Kim Beazley, basically meaning that Hockey is probably a decent policy wonk and might be good at the job... but basically considered to be too 'nice'
Julie Bishop - Good parliamentary performer, a pragmatic moderate who will play right-wing ball... but she's not a leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Of course... but for me she seems to be a 'Jim Hacker-like' compromise candidate.