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Author Topic: Best McCain percentages in a minority-majority precincts  (Read 2727 times)
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« on: July 17, 2011, 10:36:37 pm »
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Most are probably some mostly Hispanic precinct in Texas, but I'm also curious about African-American precincts.
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2011, 12:49:36 am »
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You'll find a lot of majority Hispanic precincts where a large majority of the voters are still white (and Republican).

Of places where an actual majority of the voters are minorities, Hialeah instantly sprung to mind.
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2011, 07:40:41 pm »
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If "minority" includes all Hispanics--i.e. Cubans--then the answer to your question probably lies somewhere in greater metro Miami.
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2011, 04:05:04 pm »
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If "minority" includes all Hispanics--i.e. Cubans--then the answer to your question probably lies somewhere in greater metro Miami.

After a cursory glance, the highest McCain-voting Cuban precinct I found was a precinct in north Hialeah that was 93.9% Hispanic and 76.7% McCain (800+ voters). McCain also did well around University Park, Florida. If you lower the vote count, there is a precinct near The Hammocks with 47 voters that was 91.2% Hispanic and 93.6% McCain.

For non-Cubans, the Vietnamese put up some decent margins for McCain too. There is a precinct in Westminster, California (heart of Little Saigon) that was 62.8% Asian and 65.8% McCain (about 300 voters).
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2011, 11:27:27 am »
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For non-Cubans, the Vietnamese put up some decent margins for McCain too. There is a precinct in Westminster, California (heart of Little Saigon) that was 62.8% Asian and 65.8% McCain (about 300 voters).
In Arizona and Texas, there are a few areas with Mexican precincts with numbers like that... and ridiculous turnouts as those Mexicans are not citizens.
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2011, 12:32:42 pm »
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For non-Cubans, the Vietnamese put up some decent margins for McCain too. There is a precinct in Westminster, California (heart of Little Saigon) that was 62.8% Asian and 65.8% McCain (about 300 voters).
In Arizona and Texas, there are a few areas with Mexican precincts with numbers like that... and ridiculous turnouts as those Mexicans are not citizens.

I don't really count those, though. The Hispanics weren't the ones voting for McCain. Preferrably, we would have CVAP numbers to compare with the precinct results, but I don't think those are available.
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2011, 05:49:32 pm »
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Fivethirtyeight.com did a study on the non-black vote per county, assuming (for the study) equal turnout and 96% of blacks in every county voting for Obama. There were a few counties in the Deep South where Obama was projected to have gotten less than 0% of the non-black vote (and several less than 5%). Obviously, below zero is impossible, but those counties would have majority-black precincts for McCain.

BTW, where are you all getting the precinct demographics from - 2000 or 2010? I've found 2000 on the census website, but 2010 would be more accurate for the 2008 election. If those are from 2010, where did you find them?
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2011, 05:27:40 am »
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DRA.
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2011, 07:26:01 am »
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Fivethirtyeight.com did a study on the non-black vote per county, assuming (for the study) equal turnout and 96% of blacks in every county voting for Obama. There were a few counties in the Deep South where Obama was projected to have gotten less than 0% of the non-black vote (and several less than 5%). Obviously, below zero is impossible, but those counties would have majority-black precincts for McCain.

Almost certainly not with residential segregation being what it is. Turnout matters.
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2011, 12:53:30 pm »
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Fivethirtyeight.com did a study on the non-black vote per county, assuming (for the study) equal turnout and 96% of blacks in every county voting for Obama. There were a few counties in the Deep South where Obama was projected to have gotten less than 0% of the non-black vote (and several less than 5%). Obviously, below zero is impossible, but those counties would have majority-black precincts for McCain.

Almost certainly not with residential segregation being what it is. Turnout matters.
Oh, they exist. Because racially close precincts exist, and turnout matters in them too.

Of course, in urban areas, 50-55% Black translates into overwhelmingly Democratic. And even in rural areas, it frequently translates as solidly (say 60-70%) Democratic, though elsewhere racial and political shares match. Where it gets most interesting is probably the outer edge of suburbia.

From a cursory glance at East Central Georgia, where the DRA has presidential results:
Precinct 805, Richmond County. 50.2% Black, 55.8% McCain (Whites and Blacks are tied in VAP at 46.5%)
White Plains precinct, Greene County. 54.4% Black, 50.2% McCain. (Black majority even in VAP).
Two more McCain precincts with less than 50% White in Richmond and Burke Counties.

Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2011, 08:48:43 pm »
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precinct 4-1, West Feliciana Parish. 65.8% African American, 77% McCain

granted, the precinct's population includes Angola State Prison. For a better perspective of the voting population.. 22 non-voting age African Americans out of 248 non voting-age people.

There's also Precinct 54 in Terrebonne Parish, 55% Native-American, 60.8% McCain. 774 people, but only around 148 votes.
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2011, 10:47:15 pm »
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Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.

And what does that usually mean?

Sure enough...

http://www.dcor.state.ga.us/GDC/FacilityMap/html/dodge_state_prison.html

Quote
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...

So: this is interesting. First, checked out the GA Secretary of State in search of a typo, and the odd thing here is that this result is replicated across years and races - 91% for Chambliss's hopeless opponent, 89% for Kerry, etc. And the census race results are similar enough from 2000 to 2010 not to suggest wild error. So we have our new Atlas mystery. Google is tricky since the first series of hits for "Devereux Georgia" are for some sort of addiction treatment center in the suburbs of [Georgia edit (sorry) Atlanta], but a bit more sleuthing turns up this. (Which, if it is indeed the cause of a 90+ Obama vote among a community of non-transplant downscale rural white southern Baptists, is really quite amazing.)
« Last Edit: November 01, 2011, 09:22:54 am by The Great Pumpkin »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2011, 03:33:48 am »
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Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.

And what does that usually mean?

Sure enough...

http://www.dcor.state.ga.us/GDC/FacilityMap/html/dodge_state_prison.html

Quote
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...

So: this is interesting. First, checked out the GA Secretary of State in search of a typo, and the odd thing here is that this result is replicated across years and races - 91% for Chambliss's hopeless opponent, 89% for Kerry, etc. And the census race results are similar enough from 2000 to 2010 not to suggest wild error. So we have our new Atlas mystery. Google is tricky since the first series of hits for "Devereux Georgia" are for some sort of addiction treatment center in the suburbs of Georgia, but a bit more sleuthing turns up this. (Which, if it is indeed the cause of a 90+ Obama vote among a community of non-transplant downscale rural white southern Baptists, is really quite amazing.)
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2012, 02:23:38 pm »
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Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.

And what does that usually mean?

Sure enough...

http://www.dcor.state.ga.us/GDC/FacilityMap/html/dodge_state_prison.html

Quote
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...

So: this is interesting. First, checked out the GA Secretary of State in search of a typo, and the odd thing here is that this result is replicated across years and races - 91% for Chambliss's hopeless opponent, 89% for Kerry, etc. And the census race results are similar enough from 2000 to 2010 not to suggest wild error. So we have our new Atlas mystery. Google is tricky since the first series of hits for "Devereux Georgia" are for some sort of addiction treatment center in the suburbs of [Georgia edit (sorry) Atlanta], but a bit more sleuthing turns up this. (Which, if it is indeed the cause of a 90+ Obama vote among a community of non-transplant downscale rural white southern Baptists, is really quite amazing.)

That's quite amazing but it can't be it. At the same time they gave Kerry 89% of the vote, they also voted 82% to ban gay marriage.
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2012, 02:28:22 pm »
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Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.

And what does that usually mean?

Sure enough...

http://www.dcor.state.ga.us/GDC/FacilityMap/html/dodge_state_prison.html

Quote
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...

So: this is interesting. First, checked out the GA Secretary of State in search of a typo, and the odd thing here is that this result is replicated across years and races - 91% for Chambliss's hopeless opponent, 89% for Kerry, etc. And the census race results are similar enough from 2000 to 2010 not to suggest wild error. So we have our new Atlas mystery. Google is tricky since the first series of hits for "Devereux Georgia" are for some sort of addiction treatment center in the suburbs of [Georgia edit (sorry) Atlanta], but a bit more sleuthing turns up this. (Which, if it is indeed the cause of a 90+ Obama vote among a community of non-transplant downscale rural white southern Baptists, is really quite amazing.)

That's quite amazing but it can't be it. At the same time they gave Kerry 89% of the vote, they also voted 82% to ban gay marriage.

Occam's Razor says it's a rotten borough.

(Either that or some very unreconstructed Dixiecrats).
« Last Edit: January 18, 2012, 02:33:30 pm by Very Attractive Cynthia McKinney »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2012, 03:02:59 pm »
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Oh wow - Mullis precinct, Dodge County. 49.9% White, 71.2% McCain. Rural place; Black and Democratic vote shares mostly match very well in the surrounding precincts - and they're a lot whiter.

And what does that usually mean?

Sure enough...

http://www.dcor.state.ga.us/GDC/FacilityMap/html/dodge_state_prison.html

Quote
There's a matching oddity in the whitest precinct of heavily Black Hancock County, Devereux 1A: 51.9% Black, 97.2% Obama. Whoever said Black Belt Whites all vote Republican? Or maybe both are simply results of fraud...

So: this is interesting. First, checked out the GA Secretary of State in search of a typo, and the odd thing here is that this result is replicated across years and races - 91% for Chambliss's hopeless opponent, 89% for Kerry, etc. And the census race results are similar enough from 2000 to 2010 not to suggest wild error. So we have our new Atlas mystery. Google is tricky since the first series of hits for "Devereux Georgia" are for some sort of addiction treatment center in the suburbs of [Georgia edit (sorry) Atlanta], but a bit more sleuthing turns up this. (Which, if it is indeed the cause of a 90+ Obama vote among a community of non-transplant downscale rural white southern Baptists, is really quite amazing.)

That's quite amazing but it can't be it. At the same time they gave Kerry 89% of the vote, they also voted 82% to ban gay marriage.

Occam's Razor says it's a rotten borough.

(Either that or some very unreconstructed Dixiecrats).

It's also possible that the census missed a black neighborhood, or something.
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