PA Senate Race

[Keystone Phil]

Here's another thread we have to start up. Let's try to keep the PA Senate conversations/news (between PA forum members at least) to this thread.

And so we start off with some big news...

According to grassrootspa.com Barbara Hafer has told some top politicos that she is not interested in an '06 run for Senate.

I don't believe that but it's still something worth discussing. If Hafer doesn't run, Hoeffel's chances of running/winning the Dem nomination shoot up big time.

[Sam Spade]

This type of thread will going nowhere fast on a board like this. 

[Keystone Phil]

This type of thread will going nowhere fast on a board like this. 

What do you mean? IrishDem, danwxman and myself will be debating forever on this thread. It'll be a PA 13 rival! (By the way, for all those concerned about the PA 13 thread, don't worry. Debate will pick up around June and it'll be in full swing come this time next year.)

[Akno21]

This type of thread will going nowhere fast on a board like this. 

What do you mean? IrishDem, danwxman and myself will be debating forever on this thread. It'll be a PA 13 rival! (By the way, for all those concerned about the PA 13 thread, don't worry. Debate will pick up around June and it'll be in full swing come this time next year.)

I think that was sarcasam, Phil.

[Sam Spade]

This type of thread will going nowhere fast on a board like this. 

What do you mean? IrishDem, danwxman and myself will be debating forever on this thread. It'll be a PA 13 rival! (By the way, for all those concerned about the PA 13 thread, don't worry. Debate will pick up around June and it'll be in full swing come this time next year.)

Dude, it was sarcasm.  Notice the little smiley face there. 

[danwxman]

I wish there was somebody better then Hoeffel. One thing is for sure though....TONS of Democratic money is going to go into whoever runs against Santorum. He is target number one in 2006.

[Sam Spade]

I wish there was somebody better then Hoeffel. One thing is for sure though....TONS of Democratic money is going to go into whoever runs against Santorum. He is target number one in 2006.

If they run Hoeffel, Santorum will win, fairly easily for him, btw.  Hoeffel did not run a very good campaign against Specter this time around.

[danwxman]

I wish there was somebody better then Hoeffel. One thing is for sure though....TONS of Democratic money is going to go into whoever runs against Santorum. He is target number one in 2006.

If they run Hoeffel, Santorum will win, fairly easily for him, btw.  Hoeffel did not run a very good campaign against Specter this time around.

If Hoeffel runs against Santorum it will certainly be closer then his run against Spector. Let's just hope he can put together a campaign. But I just see Hoeffel as a very weak candidate just like Ron Klink who ran against Santorum in 2000.

[Keystone Phil]

I wish there was somebody better then Hoeffel. One thing is for sure though....TONS of Democratic money is going to go into whoever runs against Santorum. He is target number one in 2006.

If they run Hoeffel, Santorum will win, fairly easily for him, btw.  Hoeffel did not run a very good campaign against Specter this time around.

If Hoeffel runs against Santorum it will certainly be closer then his run against Spector. Let's just hope he can put together a campaign. But I just see Hoeffel as a very weak candidate just like Ron Klink who ran against Santorum in 2000.

Prediction for a Santorum-Hoeffel race

Santorum 53%   Hoeffel 47%

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

I wish there was somebody better then Hoeffel. One thing is for sure though....TONS of Democratic money is going to go into whoever runs against Santorum. He is target number one in 2006.

If they run Hoeffel, Santorum will win, fairly easily for him, btw.  Hoeffel did not run a very good campaign against Specter this time around.

If Hoeffel runs against Santorum it will certainly be closer then his run against Spector. Let's just hope he can put together a campaign. But I just see Hoeffel as a very weak candidate just like Ron Klink who ran against Santorum in 2000.

I think a lot of Dems that voted Specter respect Hoeffel and would vote for him under most other circumstances, but Specter had too much union support, $$$, and brings $$$$ to the state of PA.  Money talked in Specter-Hoeffel. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Santorum is about the only Republican that the Democrats have a reasonable shot at defeating in the Senate in 2006 based on information available at this time..

The key in Pennsylvania will be the turnout (Pennsylvania has been a close state for the parties for years, with the Democrats pulling out narrow wins in most statewide elections recently).

Given that a good GOTV drive takes a long time to organize, if Santorum can get Rowe to help him in this area, he'll probably win reelection.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum doesn't need Rove to win. I think something everyone is ignoring is the fact that Santorum is one of the most popular figures in the state. Conservative Dems will go for Santorum (along with conservative Republicans obviously) and that'll be enough for him to win. While moderate Republicans are less likely to support him this time, it won't be enough for the Dem to win.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Santorum doesn't need Rove to win. I think something everyone is ignoring is the fact that Santorum is one of the most popular figures in the state. Conservative Dems will go for Santorum (along with conservative Republicans obviously) and that'll be enough for him to win. While moderate Republicans are less likely to support him this time, it won't be enough for the Dem to win.

You kinda touched on it, but not really.  You are forgetting the liberal Republicans (RINOs) that went for Santorum in 2000 will not this time around.  Most of these are in Montgomery and Bucks counties.  Rendell will have high tunrout in these areas and Santorum is not at all popular in these areas.  Center City absolutely loathes Santorum as well.  Southeast Pennsylvania will have very high turnout against Santorum. 

The Archdiocese of Philadelphia, who covertly supports Santoomey-like Republicans, had much more credibilty in 2000 than now and likely 2006.  They also supported Bush as well.  You've seen the results of that in Toomey (who btw had his face plastered on the front page of the Catholic Standard and Times) getting his ass handed to him from SE Penn and Bush losing in heavily Catholic NE Philly handily.  Also remember that Allyson Schwatrtz a.k.a. "East Coast Nancy Pelosi", who had scores of pro-choice groups supporting her, won NE Philly by 23 points.  Santorum is in more trouble than you would like to think.

Keystone, you better hope that billionaire bastard Richard Mellon Scaife helps Santorum out west otherwise, Santorum may be finished.  Remember, my anaylsis in the Brown-Schwartz race was more right than even I expected! 

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum doesn't need Rove to win. I think something everyone is ignoring is the fact that Santorum is one of the most popular figures in the state. Conservative Dems will go for Santorum (along with conservative Republicans obviously) and that'll be enough for him to win. While moderate Republicans are less likely to support him this time, it won't be enough for the Dem to win.

You kinda touched on it, but not really.  You are forgetting the liberal Republicans (RINOs) that went for Santorum in 2000 will not this time around.  Most of these are in Montgomery and Bucks counties.  Rendell will have high tunrout in these areas and Santorum is not at all popular in these areas.  Center City absolutely loathes Santorum as well.  Southeast Pennsylvania will have very high turnout against Santorum.

I already pointed out that moderates would not vote for Santorum the way they did in 2000. I thought that if moderates would not vote for Santorum, RINOs wouldn't either.

The Archdiocese of Philadelphia, who covertly supports Santoomey-like Republicans, had much more credibilty in 2000 than now and likely 2006.  They also supported Bush as well.  You've seen the results of that in Toomey (who btw had his face plastered on the front page of the Catholic Standard and Times) getting his ass handed to him from SE Penn and Bush losing in heavily Catholic NE Philly handily.  Also remember that Allyson Schwatrtz a.k.a. "East Coast Nancy Pelosi", who had scores of pro-choice groups supporting her, won NE Philly by 23 points.  Santorum is in more trouble than you would like to think.

Of course Toomey was going to lose in SE PA. It's Specter's home region! As for Bush losing in heavily Catholic NE Philly, I can't believe you would actually use that as a sign for why Santorum would lose. Republican Presidential candidates always lose up here. I think we already discusses why I believe Schwartz won so I won't even go into that. My point is that it's obvious that Dems went with the straight Dem ticket this year. You have yet to prove why Santorum would lose. Unless he won NE Philly last time, you proved absolutley nothing in this section of your post.

Keystone, you better hope that billionaire bastard Richard Mellon Scaife helps Santorum out west otherwise, Santorum may be finished.  Remember, my anaylsis in the Brown-Schwartz race was more right than even I expected! 

Santorum may be finished. Right. You have yet to explain the high approval ratings/low disapproval numbers. I can't stand when people say "Santorum might be done this time!" and can't back it up. People like Santorum in this state. It's time people like you accepted that. And comparing your anaylsis of Brown-Schwartz to a 2006 PA Senate race it ridiculous. It's a whole new ball game. We're talking state wide now, IrishDem, not Center City.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Keystone, my point was Santorum is going to have to find new supporters.  He will lose many of his Southeast supporters in places like Montgomery County.  Their GOP organization is in shambles.  Montco carried Ricky Boy and got a lot of Gore crossovers.  It will be a close one.  Remember, the DSCC abandoned Klink after he was down 20 points in the polls. They will not do so this time.  He is the DSCC's #1 target in 2006.  Klink had virtually NO support from the national party and look how close he came.  People know Santorum is a prick and will get more votes to boot him than last time I guarantee that.

[Keystone Phil]

Keystone, my point was Santorum is going to have to find new supporters.  He will lose many of his Southeast supporters in places like Montgomery County.  Their GOP organization is in shambles.  Montco carried Ricky Boy and got a lot of Gore crossovers.  It will be a close one.  Remember, the DSCC abandoned Klink after he was down 20 points in the polls. They will not do so this time.  He is the DSCC's #1 target in 2006.  Klink had virtually NO support from the national party and look how close he came.  People know Santorum is a prick and will get more votes to boot him than last time I guarantee that.

"People know Santorum is a prick." No. See this is where you mix your personal opinions in with the facts. Fact is that Santorum has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. Fact is his disapproval numbers are lowest in the state.

Santorum will lose Montco, I will concede that. However, if Hafer is the nominee, he might not do so bad there. Why? He could use the fact that she's switched parties on the GOP to further her political career. Party loyalty would be a reason it would be close.

Santorum can also increase his numbers ("find new supporters") with conservative Dems. They will not go for Hoeffel or Hafer.

[Jake]

This discussion is meaningless unless the Dems can find a moderate. If they nominate Hoeffel or Hafer, who do you think the moderates will pick. The incumbent Conservative or the losing, liberal senate candidate who got his a$$ handed to him in 2004.

[bullmoose88]

Hi-Ho Hi-Ho Rick's gotta go.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Hi-Ho Hi-Ho Rick's gotta go.

Yes he will.  Wish more Republicans thought like you!

[Keystone Phil]

Hi-Ho Hi-Ho Rick's gotta go.

Wish more Republicans thought like you!

And I'm happy there will be a good amount of Democrats who think like me when deciding who to support for Senate. Re-Elect Rick 2006!

[bullmoose88]

Come on Schweiker.

Run Damnit.

[Keystone Phil]

Come on Schweiker.

Run Damnit.

No, no! Schweiker would be great as a Gubernatorial candidate!

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Come on Schweiker.

Run Damnit.

Bucks County bias getting you again.  Goddamnit, when is it going Dem?  For being a pro-choice, socially progressive county, they still love to elect these right wing toolboxes.  When will it stop? 

[Keystone Phil]

Come on Schweiker.

Run Damnit.

Bucks County bias getting you again.  Goddamnit, when is it going Dem?  For being a pro-choice, socially progressive county, they still love to elect these right wing toolboxes.  When will it stop? 

I wouldn't say Bucks is Pro Choice, BL. And if Schweiker ran for Governor and won the GOP nomination, he would steal the county from Rendell. Bucks went for Rendell by about 30 points in 2002. Imagine the turn around in a Schweiker-Rendell matchup.

[bullmoose88]

Come on Schweiker.

Run Damnit.

Bucks County bias getting you again.  Goddamnit, when is it going Dem?  For being a pro-choice, socially progressive county, they still love to elect these right wing toolboxes.  When will it stop? 

No no no.

Moderate Republican Bias. Not to mention Schweiker's from my home township too.

Schweiker 2006! (for either!)