Re: MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney 46% Obama 42%

[krazen1211]

http://www.freep.com/article/20110718/NEWS15/110718052/Romney-holds-onto-edge-over-Obama-Michigan-election-poll-shows?odyssey=tab

The poll showed 46% of likely voters either supporting or leaning toward supporting Romney, compared to 42% supporting or leaning toward supporting Obama, with 12% undecided. Romney is considered to be the presumptive frontrunner among the large field of Republicans running for the nomination to face the Democrat, Obama, next year.

Meanwhile the increase in favorability ratings Obama saw after the raid that killed al-Qaida head Osama bin Laden in May has disappeared. In the poll following that, Obama’s favorability was at 53%, compared to 40% unfavorable. The most recent poll showed his favorability at 47% and his unfavorability rating at the same number.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Any record on this pollster's accuracy?

[krazen1211]

Last October they polled Snyder up 20, Dingell up 17, and Amash up 9. That last was pretty far off.

[King]

In 2008, they had Obama leading MI by 13 a week before the election and he won by 17.  I would say they're fairly accurate.

But like polls in Georgia and Texas showing Obama only down by 1-2 points, it's a question whether the undecided voters are really undecided or just shy Republicans.  In states like Michigan and New Jersey, they'll almost always break for the Democrat.

[HST1948]

Isn't Michigan usually close until the final month(s) of the campaign?

[DS0816]

Isn't Michigan usually close until the final month(s) of the campaign?

No.

[Ben Romney]

Romney would win MI!!!!!!

[HST1948]

Isn't Michigan usually close until the final month(s) of the campaign?

No.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Michigan

A poll as late as mid September 2008 showed McCain leading by 3, another by 1.

In 2004 the last 3 polls averaged only a 3 point Kerry lead. 

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

In 2004 the last 3 polls averaged only a 3 point Kerry lead. 

Uh, Kerry won by 3 - https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=26&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[HST1948]

In 2004 the last 3 polls averaged only a 3 point Kerry lead. 

Uh, Kerry won by 3 - https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=26&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Right, I'm just saying that Michigan is usually a close state and the polling (in a non blowout year (not 2008)) usually swings back and forth between the Republican and Democrat before the Democrat takes a small lead a month or two before the election.

[Penelope]

Romney would win MI!!!!!!

Oh my god, there's never been a poll where Romney was leading in MI before!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tmthforu94]

PBrower will probably discount this because Obama isn't leading.

[krazen1211]

PBrower will probably discount this because Obama isn't leading.

It could be that all these polls r suspekt!?!?!

[Jasengle]

he will win MI

[Lief 🗽]

It's beginning to look like a landslide, folks.

[NHI]

Mitt will get Michigan.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yes, folks. A poll just outside the margin of error taken 16 months before an election is clear evidence that Obama is doomed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A poll as late as mid September 2008 showed McCain leading by 3, another by 1.

In 2004 the last 3 polls averaged only a 3 point Kerry lead. 

Early-to-mid September 2008 was McCain's peak, as he was enjoying a tremendous post-convention bump that put him out in front of Obama nationally. A poll showing McCain ahead by 3 in MI would not be weird during that time.

[HST1948]

A poll as late as mid September 2008 showed McCain leading by 3, another by 1.

In 2004 the last 3 polls averaged only a 3 point Kerry lead. 

Early-to-mid September 2008 was McCain's peak, as he was enjoying a tremendous post-convention bump that put him out in front of Obama nationally. A poll showing McCain ahead by 3 in MI would not be weird during that time.

Right, I'm just saying that polls in Michigan are usually tight until the latter moths of the campaign (ie. in 2008 throughout the summer most polls only showed a 1-4 point Obama lead in the state, with the exception of 2 polls which showed 7 and 8 point Obama leads).

And for God's sake why is it so exciting to people that Mitt is leading here.  It would be kind of embarrassing for Mitt if he lost a state that only went for Bush by 3 points and his father was the governor of for 6 years.

[TheGlobalizer]

Keep in mind that Mitt's father was the governor of MI.

[Gustaf]

It's to be expected that the Romney name carries some weight in Michigan. I'd be surprised if it didn't move Michigan towards the Republicans with Romney as a candidate.

Then again, I doubt it would be enough to actually carry it. We're still  a long way out.

[Heimdal]

An unemployment rate north of 9% and the fact that a Romney was governor in the good old days might actually carry us across the finish line. It is of course way too early to tell, but it is encouraging to see how Romney is expanding the playing field.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And for God's sake why is it so exciting to people that Mitt is leading here.  It would be kind of embarrassing for Mitt if he lost a state that only went for Bush by 3 points and his father was the governor of for 6 years.

Because it changes the standard electoral math.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am hoping a more conservative challenger gets the nomination because with high name ID Mitt Romney who will carry NH before MI is mainstream enough to carry some of the northern states like Obama must win states like NM, IA, and NH.

[Ben Romney]

a new map please!!!
MI is blue now!!!