Kalwejt - I'd be interested in seeing a map of which counties have never voted for one major party for President from 1960-2008 (i.e. all Democrat, all GOP, all Dem or 3rd party, all GOP or 3rd party, etc.)
I'll work on it.
It appears the only counties to go for a Senate GOP in 2008 and a Senate Dem in 2010 are:
Oregon – Coos, Jackson, Wasco, Gilliam, Tillamook, Yamhill, Polk, Marion, Clackamas
Alabama – Marengo
Georgia - Rockdale (Dem in general 2008, GOP in run-off 2008, Dem in 2010)
Kentucky – Robertson (GOP to tie)
Sadly, most of these have more to do with incumbency (Oregon), black turnout (Alabama and Georgia), and a statistical fluke (Kentucky), than with any leftward shift.
Does anyone else think there is anything else at work with the above counties? Perhaps Marengo, AL had whites go back Dem after Obama was off the ticket, since black turnout was already maxed in 2008.
Comparing Governors races from 2006 to 2010, the only counties that voted GOP in 2006 and Dem in 2010 are:
Colorado: Crowley and Jackson (both were barely Dem due to Republican split in 2010)
South Dakota: Ziebach, Dewey, Corson, Day, Roberts
Texas: Harris, Culberson, Bexar, Trinity, Kleberg, Cameron, Falls (Ind. to Dem), (Dallas is incorrect)
Arkansas: Saline, Lonoke, Polk, Sebastian, Crawford, Pope, Madison, Newton, Searcy, Benton, Carroll, Boone, Marion, Baxter
Minnesota: Nicollet, Clay
Maryland: Baltimore County
Alabama: Butler, Montgomery, Henry, Jefferson, Chambers
Florida: Franklin, Liberty, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie
Georgia: Bibb, Brooks, Burke, Chatham, Early, Jefferson, McIntosh, Muscogee, Peach, Rockdale, Sumter, Warren, Washington
South Carolina: Colleton, Charleston, Kershaw, Darlington, Florence
Connecticut: Hartford, New Haven
Rhode Island: Washington (Rep. to Ind.), Bristol (Rep. to Ind.)
Vermont: Bennington, Addison, Chittenden, Windsor, Washington, Orange
Most of these counties in in states where the candidate or incumbency changed (HI, AR, VT, RI, FL, etc.), does anyone think any of the others could be trending left?