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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
dporceddu (D-AUS)MapProfile 10-20 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Firefly (D-LA)MapProfile 11-05 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
rosin (I-DNK)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brown73 (D-VA)MapProfile 06-08 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Angry_Weasel (D-CO)MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
boyohio02 (O-OH)Map 10-11 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brandon.herren (I-CA)Map 10-27 22 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
franzl (D-DEU)MapProfile 10-30 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
HockeyDude (D-NJ)MapProfile 10-30 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
Izixs (D-NH)MapProfile 11-02 4 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 5
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-06 15 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
theprezmex (D-MEX)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +65 244 (+65) 294 (-65) 0 (0) 0
wjvenner (R-VA)Map 11-06 1 R +102 281 (+102) 257 (-102) 0 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +69 248 (+69) 290 (-69) 0 (0) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
texasgurl24 (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
kylesammin (R-PA)Map 11-06 11 R +116 295 (+116) 243 (-116) 0 (0) 0
redefeatbush004 (D-MT)Map 11-06 13 R +75 254 (+75) 284 (-75) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Angry_Weasel (D-CO)
by Angry_Weasel on 2014-10-24 @ 21:36:43
MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
MOPolitico (I-MO)
by MOPolitico on 2014-09-22 @ 11:25:44
MapProfile 08-04 4 R +44 223 (+44) 315 (-44) 0 (0) 1
Americanadian (D-ON)
by Flo on 2013-10-18 @ 17:39:27
Map 09-08 8 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 7
MilesC56 (D-VA)
by MilesC56 on 2013-08-06 @ 14:21:43
MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by Ickey415 on 2013-05-23 @ 12:40:59
MapProfile 11-05 111 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-24 @ 02:40:13
MapProfile 11-06 9 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 9
thornestorm (G-CA)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-02 @ 23:02:43
Map 08-12 9 R +11 190 (+11) 348 (-11) 0 (0) 11
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-18 @ 15:13:37
MapProfile 11-06 28 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 4
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by WhyteRain on 2012-11-15 @ 11:13:05
MapProfile 11-03 1 R +168 347 (+168) 191 (-168) 0 (0) 16
CR (--MO)
by CR on 2012-11-13 @ 23:08:58
Map 11-04 25 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 18491 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: July 20, 2011, 08:57:49 pm »

Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2012 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Enjoy,
Dave

Compiled Prediction Map
« Last Edit: September 09, 2011, 10:48:32 am by Dave Leip »Logged
Warner for President '16
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2011, 10:23:48 pm »
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Cheesy  You're awesome.
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Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2011, 10:38:01 pm »
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Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2011, 03:22:00 am »
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Cheesy  You're awesome.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Dave Leip
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2011, 06:04:02 am »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2011, 12:13:04 pm »
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One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! Smiley It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. Wink\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2011, 04:11:39 pm »
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Making my map for if the election were held today; I'll wait until later for my final prediction.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2011, 05:54:52 pm »
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I love you, Dave!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2011, 06:37:03 pm »
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Thank you Dave! Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2011, 07:08:09 pm »
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Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.

Cool.

All hail Dave!
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2011, 10:32:58 pm »

One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! Smiley It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. Wink\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as

Hi - I don't see that - what browser/os are you using?

Also, I noticed that comments were disabled for everyone - I have removed the disable.

Enjoy,
Dave
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2011, 12:07:55 pm »
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I was using Firefox. I'll try Internet Explorer and see if it works.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2011, 12:17:35 pm »
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And on the 20th day of July, He returned.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2011, 12:25:00 pm by Dick Whitman »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2011, 08:07:11 am »
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How do I get my prediction to show up here?
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2011, 08:24:45 am »
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Well, my prediction map is pretty easy to imagine, since I start with the 2004 results.  So here it is:

Give Obama all of the states won by Kerry in 2004, then subtract these six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.

That will give Obama 191 electoral votes; the other 347 will go to the Republican.

As far as I can see, that's the most optimistic (for the GOP) prediction at this site.
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2011, 01:51:37 am »
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In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2011, 12:35:38 pm »
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Come down to NV,CO, and OH.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2011, 03:13:14 pm »
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Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... Roll Eyes

Some people really don't think.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2012, 08:21:20 pm »
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I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2012, 01:45:59 pm »
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Man some of these predictions make me sad.

Obama winning Arkansas?
Republicans winning Maine 2?

Really?
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17:20   bore   the point of atlasia is to achieve things which you can then use as pick up lines
WhyteRain
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2012, 08:38:30 am »
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In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
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R2D2
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2012, 03:16:49 pm »
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I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.

Please, extrapolate.
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 12:47:47 pm »
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In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
What evidence do you have that Romney will win OR, MN, and/or ME? I can see NH, PA, and maybe WI, but unless Europe collapses, Romney won't win in a landslide (or at all).
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2012, 01:42:06 am »
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I think I'll start doing my commentary on which forum predictions are most susceptible to change again.

As of 8 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
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People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. Khaled Hosseini
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Ernest
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2012, 11:22:49 pm »
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As of 9 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 13 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes (NC) to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 19 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 18 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 9 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 4 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 8 changes (-3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 8 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
South Carolina: 8 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nevada: 9 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 13 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 18 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 19 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
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People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. Khaled Hosseini
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