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| | |-+  2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
dporceddu (D-AUS)MapProfile 10-20 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Firefly (D-LA)MapProfile 11-05 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
rosin (I-DNK)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brown73 (D-VA)MapProfile 06-08 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Angry_Weasel (D-WY)MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
boyohio02 (O-OH)Map 10-11 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brandon.herren (D-CA)Map 10-27 22 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
franzl (D-DEU)MapProfile 10-30 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
HockeyDude (D-NJ)MapProfile 10-30 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
Izixs (D-NH)MapProfile 11-02 4 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 5
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-06 15 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
theprezmex (D-MEX)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +65 244 (+65) 294 (-65) 0 (0) 0
wjvenner (R-VA)Map 11-06 1 R +102 281 (+102) 257 (-102) 0 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +69 248 (+69) 290 (-69) 0 (0) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-LA)MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
texasgurl24 (D-TX)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
kylesammin (R-PA)Map 11-06 11 R +116 295 (+116) 243 (-116) 0 (0) 0
redefeatbush004 (D-MT)Map 11-06 13 R +75 254 (+75) 284 (-75) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Americanadian (D-ON)
by Flo on 2013-10-18 @ 17:39:27
Map 09-08 8 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 7
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by MilesC56 on 2013-08-06 @ 14:21:43
MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by Ickey415 on 2013-05-23 @ 12:40:59
MapProfile 11-05 111 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
Angry_Weasel (D-WY)
by JamesGatz711 on 2013-02-03 @ 02:07:32
MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-24 @ 02:40:13
MapProfile 11-06 9 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 9
thornestorm (G-CA)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-02 @ 23:02:43
Map 08-12 9 R +11 190 (+11) 348 (-11) 0 (0) 11
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-18 @ 15:13:37
MapProfile 11-06 28 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 4
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by WhyteRain on 2012-11-15 @ 11:13:05
MapProfile 11-03 1 R +168 347 (+168) 191 (-168) 0 (0) 16
CR (--MO)
by CR on 2012-11-13 @ 23:08:58
Map 11-04 25 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
Ernest (I-SC)
by Ernest on 2012-11-13 @ 11:23:09
MapProfile 11-05 48 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 14901 times)
True Federalist
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« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2012, 11:25:44 pm »
Ignore

Florida changed from 40% R to 50% R since my last post.

As of 10 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 12 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 1 change (+6) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 20 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (+2) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (+1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 5 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 5 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 5 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 5 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Missouri: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D

Yeah!  I managed to crack Dave's code and get access to the CD results for Maine and Nebraska

Nebraska 1: 6 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R.
Nebraska 2: 16 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2012, 12:47:30 pm by True Federalist »Logged

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« Reply #26 on: June 11, 2012, 11:10:30 pm »
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As of 12 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 17 changes (+5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 3 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 23 changes (+3) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+11) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 20 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 7 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 5 changes (-1) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 4 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 3 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 4 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
North Dakota: 7 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 17 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

The large number of changes for the predictions of Nebraska 1 make me wonder if I had made a mistake and it was actually Lean R as of the last time I checked, but there is no easy way to go back and recheck that, especially since the change in Nebraska 2 was in the opposite political direction.  Anyway, I am certain it is Lean R now.
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2012, 03:00:58 pm »
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Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... Roll Eyes

Some people really don't think.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?fips=39&action=statepred&submit=Go
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« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2012, 09:49:59 am »
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As of 17 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 5 days have clearly seen the prediction sentiment tilt in favor of Romney, tho not by a huge amount.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 22 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (NC) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 10 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+3) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 10 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 11 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nebraska 2: 22 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


Colorado now requires 27 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D, up 10 from 5 days ago.  This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 64 changes needed to flip the state from 50% D to 40%D narrows to under 5%.

Ohio now requires 25 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D, up 8 from 5 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 29 changes needed to flip the state from 40% D to 30% D narrows to under 5%.
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« Reply #29 on: June 25, 2012, 01:55:58 pm »
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As of 25 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 8 days have seen little change in sentiment, but once the Obamacare ruling is released I suspect there may be change, so I decided to go ahead and post an update now.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 14 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 13 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 6 changes (+3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+4) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 11 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 11 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 14 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D


Missouri now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

Nebraska 2 now requires 25 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.
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« Reply #30 on: June 26, 2012, 04:56:00 pm »
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It would be nice if there were "Reset all to blank" and "Reset all" buttons for predictions.
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« Reply #31 on: July 01, 2012, 09:50:43 pm »
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As of 1 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

The past 6 days have seen little change in sentiment, despite the Obamacare ruling.  Given the paucity of new polling, I suspect that may be the reason and people are generally waiting for data.

Nebraska 2 has returned to the list after being gone 1 time as as Ohio after being gone 2 time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (NC) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 1 change (-4) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 12 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 11 changes (-3) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 14 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (-2 or more) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 changes (-5) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 12 changes (+1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 12 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 12 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 14 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


New Mexico now requires 25 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 3 from 6 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.
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« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2012, 09:18:41 pm »
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As of 2 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

Two changes to the prediction map since yesterday.  Both Nebraska 1 and South Carolina have switched from Lean R to Strong R.  That change is why I'm posting again so soon.  Also New Mexico returns to the list after a brief absence.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 24 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 15 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 14 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 14 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 15 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 24 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
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« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2012, 11:51:49 pm »
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As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.
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« Reply #34 on: July 28, 2012, 12:54:06 am »
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As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?
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« Reply #35 on: July 28, 2012, 01:05:33 am »
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Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?

They'll be counted in November.  I'll grant that tracking the fluctuations in the predictions is a rather introspective bit of navel gazing, which is why I don't do updates every day.
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« Reply #36 on: August 01, 2012, 07:00:05 pm »
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I think romeny will do good in south,   obama will get california i believe.
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« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2012, 10:50:38 pm »
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As of 1 August these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 26 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 511 predictions) to change.

New Mexico returns to the list as a result of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans.  North Carolina shows up for the first time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 1 change (-4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 4 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes (-11) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 3 changes (-2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
North Dakota: 16 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes (-6) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nevada: 3 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Nebraska 1: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Ohio: 151 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Mexico: 17 changes  to go from Strong D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R



Nebraska 2 now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.
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« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2012, 01:55:23 pm »
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It's been two months since I last looked at these.  but most notably, Florida which two months ago had a collective prediction pf 50%R had 30%R yesterday and a 30%D today.  It's not been a good couple of months for Romney.
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« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2012, 10:45:11 am »

Preliminary scores for the 2012 Presidential Predictions have been posted.
Enjoy,
Dave
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