2012 Presidential Predictions (General)

[True Federalist]

Florida changed from 40% R to 50% R since my last post.

As of 10 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 12 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 1 change (+6) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 20 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (+2) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (+1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 5 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 5 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 5 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 5 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Missouri: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Yeah!  I managed to crack Dave's code and get access to the CD results for Maine and Nebraska

Nebraska 1: 6 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R.
Nebraska 2: 16 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R.

[True Federalist]

As of 12 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 17 changes (+5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 3 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 23 changes (+3) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+11) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 20 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 7 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 5 changes (-1) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 4 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 3 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 4 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
North Dakota: 7 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 17 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

The large number of changes for the predictions of Nebraska 1 make me wonder if I had made a mistake and it was actually Lean R as of the last time I checked, but there is no easy way to go back and recheck that, especially since the change in Nebraska 2 was in the opposite political direction.  Anyway, I am certain it is Lean R now.

[豚FLY]

Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%...

Some people really don't think.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?fips=39&action=statepred&submit=Go

[True Federalist]

As of 17 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 5 days have clearly seen the prediction sentiment tilt in favor of Romney, tho not by a huge amount.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 22 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (NC) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 10 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+3) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 10 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 11 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nebraska 2: 22 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

Colorado now requires 27 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D, up 10 from 5 days ago.  This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 64 changes needed to flip the state from 50% D to 40%D narrows to under 5%.

Ohio now requires 25 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D, up 8 from 5 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 29 changes needed to flip the state from 40% D to 30% D narrows to under 5%.

[True Federalist]

As of 25 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 8 days have seen little change in sentiment, but once the Obamacare ruling is released I suspect there may be change, so I decided to go ahead and post an update now.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 14 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 13 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 6 changes (+3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+4) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 11 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 11 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 14 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D

Missouri now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

Nebraska 2 now requires 25 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

[Odysseus]

It would be nice if there were "Reset all to blank" and "Reset all" buttons for predictions.

[True Federalist]

As of 1 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

The past 6 days have seen little change in sentiment, despite the Obamacare ruling.  Given the paucity of new polling, I suspect that may be the reason and people are generally waiting for data.

Nebraska 2 has returned to the list after being gone 1 time as as Ohio after being gone 2 time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (NC) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 1 change (-4) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 12 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 11 changes (-3) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 14 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (-2 or more) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 changes (-5) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 12 changes (+1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 12 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 12 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 14 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

New Mexico now requires 25 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 3 from 6 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

[True Federalist]

As of 2 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

Two changes to the prediction map since yesterday.  Both Nebraska 1 and South Carolina have switched from Lean R to Strong R.  That change is why I'm posting again so soon.  Also New Mexico returns to the list after a brief absence.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 24 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 15 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 14 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 14 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 15 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 24 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D

[True Federalist]

As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?

[True Federalist]

Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?

They'll be counted in November.  I'll grant that tracking the fluctuations in the predictions is a rather introspective bit of navel gazing, which is why I don't do updates every day.

[ask_not]

I think romeny will do good in south,   obama will get california i believe.

[True Federalist]

As of 1 August these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 26 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 511 predictions) to change.

New Mexico returns to the list as a result of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans.  North Carolina shows up for the first time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 1 change (-4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 4 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes (-11) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 3 changes (-2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
North Dakota: 16 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes (-6) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nevada: 3 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Nebraska 1: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Ohio: 151 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Mexico: 17 changes  to go from Strong D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R


Nebraska 2 now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

[True Federalist]

It's been two months since I last looked at these.  but most notably, Florida which two months ago had a collective prediction pf 50%R had 30%R yesterday and a 30%D today.  It's not been a good couple of months for Romney.

[Dave Leip]

Preliminary scores for the 2012 Presidential Predictions have been posted.
Enjoy,
Dave