As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.
Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.
Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D
Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.
Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?