Gerrymandering Canada

[DL]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election. A new seat could be created in Hamilton without having to negatively impact Welland etc...

Someone with time on their hands ought to look at which ridings are the most overpopulated and try to project where these new seats are likely to be.

[Holmes]

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election.

How many seats is Northern Ontario projected to gain? One?

[Hatman 🍁]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election. A new seat could be created in Hamilton without having to negatively impact Welland etc...

Someone with time on their hands ought to look at which ridings are the most overpopulated and try to project where these new seats are likely to be.

I will be doing this. You will note I have the census release date listed on my blog in anticipation of a redistribution project.

Unfortunately, Welland is going to be affected with redistribution, and its marginal status can only mean the NDP will suffer. I'm not sure were the riding can be shored up outside the area. Then again, a smaller Welland riding might be ok (losing Wainfleet would be great).

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Secondly, and this is merely an expansion on Teddy's thoughts earlier, a gerrymander may make it harder for one party to win a majority, but if they win by a reasonable margin, their majority will be much bigger because the other party will win more seats on a thinner margin and have fewer safe seats. Those central Saskatchewan seats might theoretically favour the NDP in an average election (8-0, or 7-1) but if the NDP performs worse than average, those results flip the other way around. The fewer safe seats can then make it difficult for the "natural" governing party to rebuild following a poor electoral showing, with fewer choices for the front bench giving them less credibility as the alternative government.

At the risk of sounding clichéd, it's that whole "Chinese symbol for crisis being the symbols for opportunity and threat" thing... A gerrymander may make it easier for a party to retain government, but if they lose, they're more likely to lose big. It may make it slightly harder for the other party to form government, but when they do, they will probably have a bigger majority and thus make it harder for the other party to claw its way back and a stronger mandate to implement policy - potentially giving them greater legitimacy in the eyes of the voters and making it easier for that party to retain government once it has won.

In short, a gerrymander is in some respects self-balancing, and only beneficial to one party over the short-term, in the longer term it makes no difference.

As you can see from my map, Niagara West-Glanbrook wouldn't be affected much. 4 riding can easily be done in Hamilton, although they wont look as gerrymandered as mine. One of them will probably be Conservative, as Hamilton East-Stoney Creek will likely shift east and southward becoming more Tory while the new Hamilton riding will be NDP.

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8b289f2c3d734afe

Insane. Many of those ridings would not be NDP.

[adma]

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8b289f2c3d734afe

Looks like a shattered windshield.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I call this map
http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8c034b18f4c565bc
Teddy's ritalin hasn't kicked in yet cause he just woke up oh yea and there's some swear words in there
dot jpg

[adma]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election. A new seat could be created in Hamilton without having to negatively impact Welland etc...

Someone with time on their hands ought to look at which ridings are the most overpopulated and try to project where these new seats are likely to be.

I will be doing this. You will note I have the census release date listed on my blog in anticipation of a redistribution project.

Unfortunately, Welland is going to be affected with redistribution, and its marginal status can only mean the NDP will suffer. I'm not sure were the riding can be shored up outside the area. Then again, a smaller Welland riding might be ok (losing Wainfleet would be great).

Though remember that, Wainfleet aside, a reconfigured Niagara West-Glanbrook could just as well annex elsewhere and become Niagara West-Haldimand.  Otherwise, I reckon most of the critical "affected with redistribution" in Welland has been done in the past and it might be surprisingly stable now, with a lot of the potential annexable neighbouring portions "NDP-swingable"--at this point, redistribution might as well have less of an effect on future NDP fortunes than MPP Peter Kormos' retirement...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm issuing a new challenge to anyone who thinks they are bold enough to take it on.

Canada has decided to join the United States for some reason. You've been picked to draw some new Congressional boundaries. Since ridings are smaller than Congressional districts, there will be a number of ridings in each district. You are instructed to use ridings whole.

Your challenge is to gerrymander ridings so that specific parties are most easily able to win them.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba have two Districts each.
Alberta has 6
British Columbia has 7
Quebec has 13
Ontario has 21

This means each district should consist of...
7 ridings in SK or MB
4 or 5 in AB
4 or 5 in BC
5 or 6 in QC
5 in Ontario (with a single district being allowed to have 6)

[Hatman 🍁]

I call this map
http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8c034b18f4c565bc
Teddy's ritalin hasn't kicked in yet cause he just woke up oh yea and there's some swear words in there
dot jpg

Im afraid that none of those disticts have the appropriate amount of people in them.

I'm issuing a new challenge to anyone who thinks they are bold enough to take it on.

Canada has decided to join the United States for some reason. You've been picked to draw some new Congressional boundaries. Since ridings are smaller than Congressional districts, there will be a number of ridings in each district. You are instructed to use ridings whole.

Your challenge is to gerrymander ridings so that specific parties are most easily able to win them.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba have two Districts each.
Alberta has 6
British Columbia has 7
Quebec has 13
Ontario has 21

This means each district should consist of...
7 ridings in SK or MB
4 or 5 in AB
4 or 5 in BC
5 or 6 in QC
5 in Ontario (with a single district being allowed to have 6)

Hmmm. I know you want whole ridings, but it that wasn't a rule, it would be cool to gerrymander 1 NDP and 1 Tory District in Saskatchewan

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Okay fine, whole ridings are NOT a rule anymore. Try your best.

[CultureKing]

These maps have been too kind. I want to see some Noth Carolina Gerrmandering action North of the Border!

[Antonio the Sixth]

These maps have been too kind. I want to see some Noth Carolina Gerrmandering action North of the Border!

^^^^

[adma]

I don't know how that's logistically possible, unless you string a necklace of lower-class urban nabes and reserves together for a "First Nations" seat out West...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or make the likes of Caernarfon Boroughs legal.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

We could never have NC style gerrymandering because of the way our population is distributed. Quebec is the only place with the proper distribution, but it's voting population is too homogeneous. Toronto is too "squished in", Saskatchewan is not populated enough, etc etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

We could never have NC style gerrymandering because of the way our population is distributed. Quebec is the only place with the proper distribution, but it's voting population is too homogeneous. Toronto is too "squished in", Saskatchewan is not populated enough, etc etc.

I just realized gerrymandering 1 NDP and 1 Cons district in Sask. would be near impossible. Best I could do would be to make a competitive district by connecting the north, central Saskatoon, central Regina and some of the smaller cities together into one district.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Filaments my friend.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Hatman 🍁]

More than Thornhill?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes, there are a lot of jewish people along Bathurst street in Toronto.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why are Jews in Canada so conservative?

[MaxQue]

Why are Jews in Canada so conservative?

They were very supportive of the Liberal Party before 2006-2008.
Mainly, Conservative Party is very pro-Israel (more than the current US government), while Liberal is more moderated and have a wing which is not supportive of Israel (well, they are centrists, so they are always in the middle of the road).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Why are Jews in Canada so conservative?

Max is right. Jews used to vote enmasse for the Liberals. It's only in the past few years that they've switched to Harper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Makes no sense to look at things in isolation. Liberal support has collapsed amongst pretty much all 'immigrant' communities over the past couple of elections, especially further out into the suburbs. Which is extremely significant as such communities have been one of their main electoral bulwarks since the 1950s and after Trudeau became their main source of strength. The process has been more extreme with Jewish voters though; of course the Tories have been wooing them in a serious way for longer than other minorities and, also, they're a more affluent group overall. Suspect that Israel is a factor for some (especially the more mainstream Orthodox) but generally issues like that are overrated.

[DL]

Also, the Conservatives in Canada don't seem to have been taken over (or at least are not as having been taken over) by lunatic fringe religious nutbars like the GOP in the US - so people feel safer voting Conservative in canada than they ever would voting for todays's Republicans in the US

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberals used to stand for left-wing bleeding heartism and pro-quebecism under Trudeau.

Mulroney came in and stole away the pro-quebecism. Then his party died.

Chretien, then moulded the Liberals to stand for very moderate and centrist Conservatism.

Then when the Conservative party came together, the Liberals stood for not-being-the-conservative-party

Then Canadians were like
"but we LIKE the conservative party"

meanwhile the NDP now stands for left-wing bleeding heartism and pro-quebecism.

And now the Liberals are trying to figure out WTF they stand for.