Will F.D. People
bgrieser
Rookie
Posts: 78
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« on: December 13, 2004, 12:02:47 PM » |
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« edited: December 13, 2004, 12:04:30 PM by Will F.D. People »
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Inspired by Silent Hunter's analysis of the election, I wanted to present my analysis of the election as if it were a hand of Texas Hold 'Em (a popular poker variant).
Shuffle up and deal (Just after the primaries):
George W. Bush is in the Big Blind, John Kerry in the small blind, and Ralph Nader on the button. Nader is first to act and looks at 7-2 offsuit, the worst starting hand in Texas Hold' Em. He pushes his small stack all in.
Next is John Kerry, who has picked up J of diamonds-J of clubs -- the Band of Brothers. He goes all in.
George W. Bush looks at A-K of spades -- the power of the incumbency. He quickly calls. He has Kerry covered in chips; if he wins this hand, the whole thing is over.
Before the flop, Kerry has a slight edge with his pair of Jacks over Bush's high cards. Bush is going to need some help to win.
The Flop (Conventions)
The flop comes A of clubs, 8 of spades, and 9 of diamonds. This is a huge flop for George W. Bush. He has taken the lead in this hand with a pair of aces. Kerry is going to need another Jack to get back in this hand.
The Turn (The debates)
The 10 of hearts comes off the deck for the turn. This makes the board A-8-9-10. This is not enough to put him in the lead, but it is still a great card for Kerry. He now can win with a Jack for three of a kind, or a Queen or a 7 will give him a straight.
The River (Closing weeks)
Kerry needs a Jack, Queen, or a 7 or he is out. The river comes -- another 10! The board is now A-8-9-10-10. This helps both candidates, turning both of their pairs into two pair, but Bush's Aces over 10s is better than Kerry's Jacks over 10s. Bush wins the hand, knocking out Kerry and Nader.
Analysis
Kerry needed a third Jack to join his band of Brothers. But the missing Jacks (the Swift Boat Veterans) just would not come on board. Still Kerry picked up more outs on the turn, but not enough.
Kerry misplayed some earlier hands, losing a lot of chips to Howard Dean before knocking him out. And he picked a strange table-mate in John Edwards. As they say in poker, "If you think long, you think wrong".
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