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Author Topic: A Possible Obama vs. Romney Map?  (Read 8208 times)
mondale84
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« on: July 23, 2011, 02:11:01 am »
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Is this a possible map for the general?

Obama vs. Romney



Obama: 277
Romney: 261

I know there are a few strange things. Noticeably Ohio going for Obama and Pennsylvania going for Romney. But I figure it's possible given the current polling. I would think Arizona would be the deciding state and though I think it's possible (and perhaps likely) that it would vote for Romney in the above scenario...it may just perhaps pick the winner...let me know your thoughts...
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2011, 02:15:51 am »
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Even though Nevada is a heavily Mormon state I think it would be more likely to go for Obama than Arizona.

And I don't know about Iowa.  Romney skipping Iowa primaries is kind of like flipping a middle finger at Iowa.
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2011, 02:45:37 am »
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No not really, no. MI wouldn't go for Romney before WI or OH. PA and IA are't going to go for Romney with OH and NC (especially) for Obama. Also AZ is not ready to go for a Democrat unless Obama performs better than 08 by a substantial degree, when the Hispanic population gets higher...maybe. The Kerry states that you have Romney winning, would probably imply a larger npv percent for Romney, he'd probably win the Western swing states VA and NC if he nabs both PA and MI.

Here's a map, for a close race.... What I think will happen with about the same unemployment, no major third party challenges.

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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2011, 04:58:30 am »
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Romney: 327
Obama: 211
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2011, 07:07:19 am »
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I wonder what the chances are of Romney winning Maine.
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2011, 07:38:20 am »
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I wonder what the chances are of Romney winning Maine.

Probably about the same as those of President Obama winning Tennessee -- only in an electoral blowout.
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2011, 11:43:23 am »
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Guys, can we stop with this "Nevada and Colorado and etc" are heavily Mormon states nonsense? First of all, no, they're not. 11% of the Nevadan population is Mormon. Colorado's is like 3% if I remember correctly. Second of all, these Mormons already vote in higher proportions than other religious groups, and they already vote heavily Republican. Mitt Romney is not going to get some gigantic Mormon bump in the Southwest.
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2011, 11:48:31 am »
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Even though Nevada is a heavily Mormon state I think it would be more likely to go for Obama than Arizona.

And I don't know about Iowa.  Romney skipping Iowa primaries is kind of like flipping a middle finger at Iowa.
First off, you must be referring to the Iowa caucus, not the Iowa primary. Mitt Romney isn't skipping the caucus, he's just skipping the straw poll, along with all other straw polls across the country.
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2011, 11:56:23 am »
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No not really, no. MI wouldn't go for Romney before WI or OH. PA and IA are't going to go for Romney with OH and NC (especially) for Obama. Also AZ is not ready to go for a Democrat unless Obama performs better than 08 by a substantial degree, when the Hispanic population gets higher...maybe. The Kerry states that you have Romney winning, would probably imply a larger npv percent for Romney, he'd probably win the Western swing states VA and NC if he nabs both PA and MI.

Here's a map, for a close race.... What I think will happen with about the same unemployment, no major third party challenges.


Ohio and Pennsylvania tend to vote in tandem; I can see an Obama win in Ohio but loss in Pennsylvania if both states go by a few tenths of a percent.  

Michigan may very well flip for Romney if the economy and unemployment continues to worsen.  Wisconsin would obviously be close, by residual anger at Governor Walker (especially if he does something else stupid) could be enough to keep that state in Obama's column.

Demographic shifts could allow Obama to hold onto Virginia and even North Carolina (though the second one would have to be coupled with depressed conservative turnout, which is likely if the primaries turn into a protracted battle with Bachmann or Perry).  

11% is a sizable Mormon population in Nevada when you consider they will likely make up about 1/5 of the states voters (think; voter turnout).  The real swing factor, IMO, will be the economy.  Nevada already has the worst unemployment situation and housing crises in the country; I don't see Obama doing well there as is.

Arizona and Iowa are the two states I can't easily explain.  You could say the Hispanic vote turned against Romney, but then how did he win Nevada?  Maybe if Nevada and Arizona were each one by only a few tenths of a percent like Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Iowa, I don't see Romney having much appeal in at all.  But hey, I could be wrong.

Over all, I would say the map is plausible but not probable.
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2011, 12:23:36 pm »
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I think this is a fairly likely map for a close Romney win. I'd probably switch Nevada and New Hampshire but otherwise it looks right to me.

I know there are a half dozen polls out their saying the opposite, but I don't think there's any chance whatsoever of Romney winning PA and losing OH. OH and PA don't really vote in tandom anymore; PA votes for the Democrat unless it's a landslide and OH usually votes for whoever wins. It may be possible for Romney to win OH and PA (and probably MI too at that point) and have the election still be close, but OH is a more Republican state than the others mentioned. Detroit and Philly are bigger Dem vote sinks than Cleveland. That's why in a nutshell. Kasich may be unpopular, but so is ever other governor in the lower Midwest. The Rust Belt is angry at everyone right now and will be for a long time because our economy has been in shambles and bleeding jobs for 50 years. I doubt many people who weren't already going to vote for Obama anyway will have there mind changed by SB5 (Note: I am neither endorsing nor condemning SB5; there are parts I like and parts I dislike).

Oh, by the way, Obama isn't going to win Indiana unless the Republican has an epic meldown or unemployment is under 6%.

Virginia seems to be experiencing a sort of "reversion to the mean" since 2008 by electing Bob McDonell and McDonell remaining popular. Of course, Obama could still win VA but I don't think he's more likely to than any of the states colored red. The same goes for NC.

Colorado may be lost for the Republicans for a long time. There wasn't much of a 2010 resurgence there and I'm starting to doubt Romney can win it unless the election is a blowout. Nevada may be the same position as Colorado, but I think that's a little more uncertain.
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2011, 06:35:36 pm »
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I'm giving GA to Obama not because I think he's the favourite there, but because my guts say he'll beat romney there:

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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2011, 06:49:05 pm »
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It won't be 2008 forever.
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2011, 07:13:36 pm »
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I think this is the max Romney could achieve.

Battleground states will be Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida

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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2011, 07:59:36 pm »
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Assuming he gets the nomination, which is not even a sure thing for him, this is the map I see for him at this point.
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2011, 11:32:05 pm »
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If Obama loses MI and PA, he probably also loses OH.
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2011, 01:06:44 am »
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Is this a possible map for the general?

Obama vs. Romney

Obama: 277
Romney: 261

I know there are a few strange things. Noticeably Ohio going for Obama and Pennsylvania going for Romney. But I figure it's possible given the current polling. I would think Arizona would be the deciding state and though I think it's possible (and perhaps likely) that it would vote for Romney in the above scenario...it may just perhaps pick the winner...let me know your thoughts...

Flip Arizona and I think you are spot on.

Romney 272
Obama 266
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2011, 02:33:18 am »
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Nevada may be the same position as Colorado, but I think that's a little more uncertain.
I give Romney the edge in NV in a close race because of the very poor economy, otherwise it would lean D.

But I don't think this race is going to be that close, my intuition - at least- makes me think it will be decisive.
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2011, 01:28:58 pm »
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Possibly something like this ?



Obama wins 271-267.
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2011, 04:15:16 pm »
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Economy at >9.1% and Romney sweeps through the primaries with very little competition.
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2011, 06:29:03 pm »
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Unemployment around 8.3% vs. Romney: Obama runs a great campaign and wins: 279-259
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2011, 11:16:44 am »
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This is what I have it at right now:



Obama(D-IL)/Biden(D-DE): 272
Romney(R-NH)/(TBN): 266
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2011, 09:23:19 pm »
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Wow, everyone on here seems to think Obama could win Ohio while losing PA and MI. I know the polls seem to say that at the moment, but there really is no plausible scenario where that will happen. I think a lot of people are taking the polls too seriously at this point.
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2011, 09:38:49 pm »
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Why do some here think Romney will win Michigan?  His dad was governor there more than forty years ago, and every time he goes there, he gets hammered over his opposition to the auto bailouts.  How, exactly, does he win the state?
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« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2011, 02:20:28 am »
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Is this a possible map for the general?

No.
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« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2011, 03:40:12 pm »
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All and all, it's not a bad prediction. A couple of things to consider:

In 2009 Republicans took firm control of Virginia state government. In fact every Republican running for statewide office garnered at least 60% of the vote. What's more, President Obama's poll numbers remain lackluster in the state. I think we can move it safely into the Republican column.

Ohio will be a fight (as per usual) but Republicans made historic gains in the industrial Midwest in 2010, winning Congressional, Senate, and Gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. There's an obvious trend emerging here, potentially a realignment. If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, he stands a strong chance at taking Michigan (his native state which his father ran). What's more with high unemployment and low approval numbers, Ohio is starting look bad for the President. Even if he wins Pennsylvania (which I suspect he will) I don't see how he wins re-election without these two states.
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