What will happen to the Asian markets in the first hour of trading today?
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  What will happen to the Asian markets in the first hour of trading today?
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Question: What will happen to the Asian markets in the first hour of trading today?
#1
Up
 
#2
Down by less than .5%
 
#3
Down by .5%-1%
 
#4
Down by 1%-2%
 
#5
Down by 2%-5%
 
#6
Down by more than 5%
 
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Author Topic: What will happen to the Asian markets in the first hour of trading today?  (Read 2789 times)
Torie
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« on: July 24, 2011, 03:19:40 PM »

Given all the hype about the Asian markets tanking in an alleged panic over the slugfest and finger pointing in DC, what do you think will happen today in the first hour of trading? I think next to nothing will happen myself. I think it is hype. I think the markets are being reassured that one way or another, the deficit will shrink, even if dead political bodies are strewn all the way up and down Pennsylvania Ave, leading right into the White House. What do you think?
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Sbane
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2011, 03:21:10 PM »

Asian markets are pretty volatile anyways. Wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a good amount. I am sure Washington will pass at least a half ass plan, but who really knows.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2011, 03:32:23 PM »

Asian markets are pretty volatile anyways. Wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a good amount. I am sure Washington will pass at least a half ass plan, but who really knows.

I picked option 2 myself. Down by less than .5%.  And that is because the Asian markets were up by more than that on Friday mostly.
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anvi
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2011, 03:43:51 PM »

I don't make predictions of this kind because I don't know enough or follow closely enough to make them.  I do suspect, however, that the two biggest debt-holders, China and Japan, will likely not move much yet.  U.S. bonds are still seen as safer than European ones, given all the unrest there.  China, earlier this year, switched a lot of its Treasury holdings from short-term to longer-term ones.  Japan pulled back its holdings a little after the earthquake in March, but they've ticked up again slightly, and I suspect, though don't know for sure, that their recent buying has been in longer-term holdings too. Besides, talks in Washington are pretty constant now, and Asian governments are probably getting some calls from Washington these days filled with reassurances not to worry too much.   I don't see why there should be that much movement tomorrow, but every day that passes as we approach August 2nd without a deal will make people more and more jittery.  
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2011, 03:52:50 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2011, 05:02:57 PM by Beet »

The Persian Gulf markets were open over the weekend and saw mild changes. I don't think the immediate reaction of the markets is as significant as what investors will think will happen in the medium term. That's all I'll say for now...
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2011, 03:54:20 PM »

Down by .5%-1%.  The key is that there is talk of downgrading the US credit rating from AAA to AA+.  That is independent of the debt ceiling deal (or lack thereof).
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opebo
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2011, 05:42:33 PM »

...I think the markets are being reassured that one way or another, the deficit will shrink, even if dead political bodies are strewn all the way up and down Pennsylvania Ave, leading right into the White House. What do you think?

What utter nonsense - the markets are not pleased by the 'deficit shrinking'.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2011, 05:46:56 PM »

Options 2 and 3 seem the most likely to me.
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Marston
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2011, 05:52:44 PM »

Probably a small drop. Nothing catastrophic.

 
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2011, 07:01:54 PM »

I don't think the Asian Markets matter as much as the US markets. I'll be watching them tomorrow morning.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2011, 07:07:34 PM »

Dow futures are now -103.  Gold opened higher but has pulled back a bit to +13.90.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2011, 07:11:35 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2011, 07:13:33 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Dow futures are now -103.  Gold opened higher but has pulled back a bit to +13.90.

Well, neither of those are a percent, so not too exciting.

The markets must expect some sort of deal. Which will probably involve Obama caving. From his preemptively caved position, that is.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2011, 07:12:30 PM »

Nikkei is down 66 at 8:10 EDT, more than a 0.5% drop.
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2011, 07:15:15 PM »

Dow futures are now -103.  Gold opened higher but has pulled back a bit to +13.90.

Well, neither of those are a percent, so not too exciting.

Just reporting, not commenting.

I said the Nikkei would be down 0.5%-1.0%; that happened ten minutes in, but it is not near a 1% drop.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2011, 07:27:25 PM »

Nikkei is down about 0.7%, off its low.  Gold is up about 0.7% off its high.  A minor and orderly retreat, so far.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2011, 07:32:09 PM »

At the half hour, Nikkei is down 0.67.
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2011, 07:45:20 PM »

NAS Futures are getting hit.  -25.50, or about 1.2%.  Dow Futures are at -110.  Both are off lows.

Orderly retreat.
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2011, 08:03:34 PM »

At the one hour mark, the Nikkei is down 0.56%.  Dow futures are off 106; NAS futures are off 23.50.  AU up 11.40.
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2011, 08:30:03 PM »

Now the Nikkei is down 0.55%.  There has been some fluctuation, but it has been an orderly retreat.  No sell off at this point.
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