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| | |-+  Pew has Republicans gaining with Young, Low-income Voters, especially whites
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Author Topic: Pew has Republicans gaining with Young, Low-income Voters, especially whites  (Read 755 times)
Dgov
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« on: July 23, 2011, 01:59:44 pm »
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http://people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/

This is a poll of Partisan Identification + Lean Identification rather than direct voting preferences, but is still interesting to look at.  

Basic summary:

Millennial Whites are now roughly as Republican as their elders at +11R, representing an 18-point shift from 2008 where they were D + 7.

Overall, Millennials are still the most Democratic group, but by less than half the margin from 2008, D+13 vs D+28.

Poor (<$30,000) Whites are also now Republican-leaning, going from D+15 in 2008 to R+4 in 2011.

Overall, Poor voters are still Democratic, but went from D+34 to D+22.  GOP is now tied with middle-income voters and leads by 5 with upper-income ones.

Regionally, the GOP gained the most (overall) in the Midwest and West, going from D+13 to R+1 in the former and D+15 to D+3 in the latter.  Democrats still hold a big edge in the Northeast, and hold a small edge in the South.

Republicans gained roughly equally (+9) across all White Christian groups except Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.

The only group Republicans lost ground with is Hispanics, with their Dem advantage growing from D+38 to D+42.  Interestingly, both parties lost identification with Hispanics; Republicans just lost more.  However, the 2010 exit polls suggests that while Hispanics may not like calling themselves Republicans, they're still willing to give the GOP a decent chunk of their vote.

And Finally, this means that the Democrat's identification edge overall has dropped from D+12 to D+4.  Most of these gains came gradually from 2009-2010, and the totals have been roughly stable since January 2011.

EDIT:  The other interesting thing is that all these gains come from Independents saying they lean Republican rather than self-identifying more as Republicans.  The number that call themselves full Republicans is unchanged from 2008 (28%), but the number that identify as lean-Republican went from 11% to 16%.  The number of Hard-Democrats went from 38% to 34%, and the number of lean-Democrats stayed flat.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2011, 03:51:00 pm by Dgov »Logged

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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2011, 02:03:48 pm »
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You mean people affected by the economy are moving towards the opposition party? THIS IS SHOCKING
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2011, 02:04:57 pm »
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Is there a gender gap between both party's? I see more females on Dem sites then guys and guys FAR more then females on GOP sites.
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Dgov
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2011, 02:08:00 pm »
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Is there a gender gap between both party's? I see more females on Dem sites then guys and guys FAR more then females on GOP sites.

Yeah, Women are about 16 Points more Democratic than Men are(D+12 vs R+4), though that's down from 19 points (D+21 vs D+2) in 2008.
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2011, 02:14:51 pm »
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Is there a gender gap between both party's? I see more females on Dem sites then guys and guys FAR more then females on GOP sites.

Yeah, Women are about 16 Points more Democratic than Men are(D+12 vs R+4), though that's down from 19 points (D+21 vs D+2) in 2008.

I would guess the Dems need to ignore guns and try win this group but we need the South and that won't happen for a very very very long time to come. I wonder if this is because it's the single women vote, since married women tend to lean towards the Republican. One of the weirdest swing I have ever seen was women going to Gerald Ford in 1976 to Jimmy Carter in 1980. Can anyone explain this swing to me?
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2011, 03:34:14 pm »
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Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.
  This is the number that strikes terror in Dem hearts.  It flips key Midwestern states.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2011, 03:50:30 pm »
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Wow, forgot to mention this, but the other interesting thing is that all these gains come from Independents saying they lean Republican rather than self-identifying more as Republicans.  The number that call themselves full Republicans is unchanged from 2008 (28%), but the number that identify as lean-Republican went from 11% to 16%.  The number of Hard-Democrats went from 38% to 34%, and the number of lean-Democrats stayed flat.
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2011, 07:04:29 pm »
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Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.
  This is the number that strikes terror in Dem hearts.  It flips key Midwestern states.

If this is the case, would this make the Northeast states such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island more closer?
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2011, 09:57:39 pm »
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Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.
  This is the number that strikes terror in Dem hearts.  It flips key Midwestern states.

If this is the case, would this make the Northeast states such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island more closer?

My perception is that RI, the most Catholic state in the nation, is trending GOP.  But neither of course will flip. The region has a lot of CINO's.  Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2011, 11:16:10 pm »
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Any Catholics that move towards the GOP are white ones, notice that Hispanics became more Democratic. Is there trouble brewing in the southwest and maybe even Texas for Republicans? The problem for the GOP is that any Republican electoral strategy to prevent any sort of "amnesty" for illegals in order to shore up their numbers only sets them back further with Latinos. Any sort of platform to win them over again at Bush-level numbers would require a non-xenophobic platform that at least supports the DREAM Act, which would never be tolerated by the GOP in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas etc.

It should be surprising to no one that the Democrats are struggling with working class whites, especially in the "Heartland".
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2011, 11:22:55 pm »
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Well unemployment is kind of high among young people. The stimulus was too watered down, so no surprise that the unemployed young aren't as enthusiastic about Obama as they used to be. This is all pretty predictable.
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2011, 01:30:22 am »
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Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.

I think that's just a side effect of losing working class whites.  In some states it won't matter because Dems already rack up huge margins, but the Catholic vote could be the difference in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, etc.
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2011, 08:55:24 am »
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But it's a year out, none of these trends may hold in the long run, which is why the GOP playing such hard ball on economics can backfire on them. The Ryan Plan alone is enough to stop any trends like these in their tracks.
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2011, 10:20:59 pm »
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But it's among registered voters.  It's always been liberals who can motivate their young voters to actually GET OUT AND VOTE.... which is the important part.
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