Pew has Republicans gaining with Young, Low-income Voters, especially whites (user search)
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  Pew has Republicans gaining with Young, Low-income Voters, especially whites (search mode)
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Author Topic: Pew has Republicans gaining with Young, Low-income Voters, especially whites  (Read 1963 times)
Dgov
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Posts: 1,558
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« on: July 23, 2011, 01:59:44 PM »
« edited: July 23, 2011, 03:51:00 PM by Dgov »

http://people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/

This is a poll of Partisan Identification + Lean Identification rather than direct voting preferences, but is still interesting to look at.  

Basic summary:

Millennial Whites are now roughly as Republican as their elders at +11R, representing an 18-point shift from 2008 where they were D + 7.

Overall, Millennials are still the most Democratic group, but by less than half the margin from 2008, D+13 vs D+28.

Poor (<$30,000) Whites are also now Republican-leaning, going from D+15 in 2008 to R+4 in 2011.

Overall, Poor voters are still Democratic, but went from D+34 to D+22.  GOP is now tied with middle-income voters and leads by 5 with upper-income ones.

Regionally, the GOP gained the most (overall) in the Midwest and West, going from D+13 to R+1 in the former and D+15 to D+3 in the latter.  Democrats still hold a big edge in the Northeast, and hold a small edge in the South.

Republicans gained roughly equally (+9) across all White Christian groups except Catholics, where they flipped the Democrat's D+8 edge to R+10.

The only group Republicans lost ground with is Hispanics, with their Dem advantage growing from D+38 to D+42.  Interestingly, both parties lost identification with Hispanics; Republicans just lost more.  However, the 2010 exit polls suggests that while Hispanics may not like calling themselves Republicans, they're still willing to give the GOP a decent chunk of their vote.

And Finally, this means that the Democrat's identification edge overall has dropped from D+12 to D+4.  Most of these gains came gradually from 2009-2010, and the totals have been roughly stable since January 2011.

EDIT:  The other interesting thing is that all these gains come from Independents saying they lean Republican rather than self-identifying more as Republicans.  The number that call themselves full Republicans is unchanged from 2008 (28%), but the number that identify as lean-Republican went from 11% to 16%.  The number of Hard-Democrats went from 38% to 34%, and the number of lean-Democrats stayed flat.
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Dgov
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Posts: 1,558
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2011, 02:08:00 PM »

Is there a gender gap between both party's? I see more females on Dem sites then guys and guys FAR more then females on GOP sites.

Yeah, Women are about 16 Points more Democratic than Men are(D+12 vs R+4), though that's down from 19 points (D+21 vs D+2) in 2008.
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Dgov
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Posts: 1,558
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2011, 03:50:30 PM »

Wow, forgot to mention this, but the other interesting thing is that all these gains come from Independents saying they lean Republican rather than self-identifying more as Republicans.  The number that call themselves full Republicans is unchanged from 2008 (28%), but the number that identify as lean-Republican went from 11% to 16%.  The number of Hard-Democrats went from 38% to 34%, and the number of lean-Democrats stayed flat.
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