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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV
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Author Topic: 2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV  (Read 9714 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #75 on: September 11, 2011, 03:32:26 am »
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In the State Senate, 22 seats have only Republicans running, 8 seats have only Democrats running, and 9 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The Senate is currently 22-17 Republican.
Oh wow.
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« Reply #76 on: September 20, 2011, 06:02:52 pm »
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Joseph Cao's Attorney General bid was short-lived; he's dropped out already.
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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: September 20, 2011, 06:37:50 pm »
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Thats a shame.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #78 on: September 22, 2011, 05:53:25 pm »
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With less than two weeks to go, it looks like West Virginia may be the one competitive race this year. Both the RGA and DGA are pumping money into the race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #79 on: September 23, 2011, 04:11:16 am »
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Early voting in West Virginia so far is:

59% Democratic
33% Republican

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickHereToSeeDailyUpdatedEarlyVotingand.aspx
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Miles
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« Reply #80 on: September 23, 2011, 04:50:13 am »
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Pretty similar to the overall partisan registration numbers (56-28 Democratic).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #81 on: September 23, 2011, 07:06:58 am »
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It also doesn't tell us much because Maloney's going to need to win at least a quarter of Democrats to win the election, so who knows if they're voting for him or not.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #82 on: September 23, 2011, 09:09:35 am »
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BTW, early voting in the 2010 election was:

54% Democratic
36% Republican

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickheretoseedailyupdatedEarlyVotingandAbsenteeBallotNumbers.aspx
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #83 on: September 26, 2011, 09:35:21 am »
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With this week still to go, Democrats remain ahead by 58-34 in WV early voting.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #84 on: September 27, 2011, 11:00:21 am »
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Back to 59-33 today.

If it stays that way, Tomblin would already get around 47% only from Democrats alone ... Wink
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« Reply #85 on: September 27, 2011, 04:57:22 pm »
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Back to 59-33 today.

If it stays that way, Tomblin would already get around 47% only from Democrats alone ... Wink

And this winning 0% of the indep. and republican vote ^^
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #86 on: September 27, 2011, 08:32:58 pm »
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Are Tomblin and Maloney the only ones on the ballot?
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« Reply #87 on: September 27, 2011, 08:51:57 pm »
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There's a Mountain (aka Green) Party candidate, an independent, and a guy running on something called American Third Position.
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« Reply #88 on: September 28, 2011, 03:49:49 pm »
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There's a Mountain (aka Green) Party candidate, an independent, and a guy running on something called American Third Position.

Yes, a crazy, a dreamer and a NAZI.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Tender Branson
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« Reply #89 on: September 29, 2011, 11:29:21 am »
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Still about 58-34 today. 3 days of early voting remain. I'll post the final numbers on Monday.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #90 on: September 30, 2011, 08:40:20 am »
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More than 40.000 early votes are now in, Democrats remain ahead by 57% to 34%.

2 days are still remaining and final early turnout could be between 50.000 and 60.000

What turnout can we expect alltogether ? About 300.000-400.000 ?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #91 on: September 30, 2011, 03:35:22 pm »
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What were the early vote totals last year?

PPP will be doing a final poll of WV this weekend.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #92 on: October 01, 2011, 12:32:47 am »
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What were the early vote totals last year?

PPP will be doing a final poll of WV this weekend.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #93 on: October 01, 2011, 12:36:32 am »
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I think a 56-43 Tomblin win looks realistic now.

Let's see what PPP says.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #94 on: October 01, 2011, 07:30:56 am »
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I was more interested in the totals, but that link gives them (~108,000), so I'm going to guess turnout will be between 300,000 and 350,000.
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Meeker
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« Reply #95 on: October 02, 2011, 04:20:26 pm »
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Based upon the reliable Meeker standard of "the-feeling-I-got-from-phonebanking-and-doorknocking-this-weekend" I think we'll be fine.
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rbt48
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« Reply #96 on: October 02, 2011, 11:01:11 pm »
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If Bill Maloney's WV ads are much different than along the lines of "Why wait until 2012; Let's send Obama a message now," he is missing the boat.  Properly marketed, in a state with the political climate of WV, that approach should have brought him to victory.
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redcommander
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« Reply #97 on: October 02, 2011, 11:29:33 pm »
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I'm going to say right now the race is a toss up, and really could go either way. There's been a huge absence of polling compared to NY-9.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #98 on: October 03, 2011, 12:54:38 am »
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PPP twitters that their upcoming poll will show a "competetive race" ...

Hard to imagine with these early voting numbers, but let's see. After all, the polls last year also heavily underestimated the Democrat in WV.
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Torie
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« Reply #99 on: October 03, 2011, 08:43:56 am »
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Doesn't WV have a heavy Dem registration edge, and if so, how can the registration numbers of those who voted mean very much unless the early vote is disproportionately Dem?  In a word, isn't WV packed with DINO's these days? Isn't it a bit like NY-09? Yes, I understand that the DINO effect might be more muted for state races as compared to federal ones.
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