2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Meeker]

There was another thread on this but it was for some reason locked.

Anyways, the Mississppi primary is next Tuesday.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You forgot WV!

I made separate threads for KY and WV long ago but the races are so lacking in news that it's rather pointless. I think each thread has maybe three or four pages of posts. And to think those are the hot 2011 gubernatorial elections. LA and MS are complete snorefests.

[Meeker]

You forgot WV!

I made separate threads for KY and WV long ago but the races are so lacking in news that it's rather pointless. I think each thread has maybe three or four pages of posts. And to think those are the hot 2011 gubernatorial elections. LA and MS are complete snorefests.

Oops - you're right. Added WV.

I feel there's an outside chance of an upset in WV but it's kind of difficult to tell when there's absolutely no news about it anywhere.

Democrats also managed to get a "candidate" in Louisiana - this chick - but probably more appealing is the potential candidacy of State Senator Rob Marionneaux. He will still lose of course.

[RogueBeaver]

Marionneaux is not running, since none of his prerequisite conditions can be fulfilled. In the Legislature, obstructionists in both parties will be washed away by a Mansionista tide, that's for sure.

[Brandon H]

I'm surprised Jindal has launched his 2016 Presidential Campaign yet. I'll probably vote for someone else just for the hell of it.

[Meeker]

The two Democrats running in Mississippi are actually pretty decent candidates. Of course they'll still lose because it's Mississippi and Barack Obama is the President but it's nice to see us giving it a go.

www.luckettforgovernor.com
www.johnnydupree.com

A tad unclear who will win the primary - Luckett has raised more money but DuPree seems to be getting more newspaper endorsements and is black.

[Tender Branson]

I think DuPree wins the primary with 54%.

And then he loses to Phil Bryant by 62-37.

[Harry]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

[Tender Branson]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

I think Bryant wins the GOP primary with 67% of the vote.

[Harry]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

I think Bryant wins the GOP primary with 67% of the vote.

Yeah, I predict Bryant wins without a runoff too.  I'll say he gets 59% of the vote (which is essentially a number out of a hat).

[Tender Branson]

For which Democrat are you voting, Harry ?

[Rockefeller]

I'll be voting for Bryant, but I expect a run-off.

I look around my neck of the woods (Northeast MS) I see a lot more Dave Dennis and Ron Williams signs and bumper stickers than I do Bryant.  I think Williams hurts Dennis more than anyone else, they are both Tea Party-esque businessmen from the Gulf Coast.  I think when the results come in, it'll be around 48-39-8 favoring Bryant.  This means a run-off between Bryant and Dennis, which I would rate as a tossup. 

On the Democratic side, I think Luckett will beat DuPree handily.  Luckett has flooded Mississippi televisions with ads over the past week or so, DuPree's been keeping a low profile.  However, like Harry said, it all comes down to Black turnout which can be a big "?".

However, I will say one thing.  If the race comes down to Dennis and Luckett, I'll be voting for Luckett.   

[Rockefeller]

Up to the minute returns for MS state elections can be found at:

www.wcbi.com

With about 4% of the polling places reporting, in the GOP primary Dave Dennis leads Phil Bryant by less than 100 votes.  DuPree is leading Luckett 45-39 with 5% reporting.

I have no idea which precints they're talking about being closed.

Its too early to say anything for sure, but I think the GOP primary is shaping up to be bitterly close.  Ron Williams may prove a spoiler for Dave Dennis. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the AP link. Damn, they're slow.

[Rockefeller]

I hope that Luckett's able to come back and at least make this competitive. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Checking back in... DuPree's dropped below 50%, while Bryant has jumped up to 58%. Bryant's probably clear of the runoff zone; Dennis has only managed to win two counties (Hancock and Harrison), and despite the charmingly parochial voting patterns present in the Deep South that can upend things quickly, I don't think he has a shot. I have no idea what's left on the Democratic side, but odds are DuPree ends up in a runoff with Luckett.

[Meeker]

AP called it for Bryant and a runoff on the Dem side... DuPree currently leads 45-38 but I think there's some Luckett-friendly areas in the Northern part of the state still to come in so that may drop.

Tate Reeves won the Lt. Governor primary and faces no opposition in the general election, so expect him to be elected Governor in 2019.

[rbt48]

Reeves is pretty young: 35 or 36.  Perhaps he'd try for Thad Cochran's Senate seat when it becomes open due to retirement instead of running for Governor.

Looking at the Democratic Governorship primary vote, you can really pick out the racial makeup of the counties in Mississippi pretty easily.

[Harry]

Yeah, I predict Bryant wins without a runoff too.  I'll say he gets 59% of the vote (which is essentially a number out of a hat).

Gotta be proud of that prediction.  Didn't see the Democratic runoff coming though.  I never would have dreamed the two joke candidates would combine for 17% of the vote.

The Democratic runoff will have virtually no turnout, and that's bad news for DuPree.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2244094181

^^^This guy made it to double-digits in the Democratic primary.

[Harry]

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2244094181

^^^This guy made it to double-digits in the Democratic primary.

Lot of True Blood fans in the state.

[Tender Branson]

DEM Primary (96% in):

DuPree, Johnny           Dem      159,745      43% - Runoff
Luckett, Bill                  Dem      146,220      40% - Runoff
Compton, William        Dem         35,864      10%
Shaw, Guy                   Dem        27,166        7%

GOP Primary (94% in):

Bryant, Phil                  GOP       163,071      59%
Dennis, Dave               GOP         71,486      26%
Williams, Ron               GOP         24,563        9%
Holliday, Hudson          GOP         12,908       5%
Broadwater, James      GOP           3,412       1%

So, who do you think will win the DEM run-off ?

I thought there were only DuPree and Luckett in the race ...

[Tender Branson]

When is this run-off happening btw ?

[Meeker]

When is this run-off happening btw ?

August 23rd. Given the closeness of the candidates in this round, the race's low-profile and the unpredictable voter turnouts associated with runoff elections, I don't think anyone can say with certainty who will win.

[Kevinstat]

Tate Reeves won the Lt. Governor primary and faces no opposition in the general election, so expect him to be elected Governor in 2019.

There were a couple Reform Party candidates according to Politics1.com.  That party actually seems to still show some signs of life in Mississippi, from the lists of candidates for constitutional officers there.