2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Tender Branson]

The predicted outcome of this election won't be too hard:

Whites (64%): Bryant 90%, DuPree 9%, Others 1%
Blacks (32%): DuPree 95%, Bryant 4%, Others 1%
Others (4%): DuPree 65%, Bryant 34%, Others 1%

Total: 60.2% Bryant, 38.8% DuPree, 1.0% Others

+/- 3%

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought blacks were around 38% of Mississippi's population.

[Tender Branson]

I thought blacks were around 38% of Mississippi's population.

Yeah, but their turnout is always lower than that of the Whites, so they make up only 30-34% in the end.

[7,052,770]

Haley and Kirk never topped 58%, so I doubt Phil Bryant will either (not that it matters).

I'll still to Bryant winning 55-44 until I see something to change my mind.

[Meeker]

Do you think African-American turnout will be noticeably higher than 2003 or 2007?

[Tender Branson]

Do you think African-American turnout will be noticeably higher than 2003 or 2007?

What was African American turnout in 2003 or 2007 ?

I don`t think there were any exit polls, right ?

Or does the MS Secretary of State keep track of turnout by race ?

[Meeker]

Mississippi keeps records of voter registration by race and they keep voting records. So it could be accessed somehow. Might not be online though.

[RogueBeaver]

It would be neat to see republicans win all four of the contests. I really want Kentucky.

All the incumbents will win, and Williams' campaign is reaching Gingrich levels of pathetic.

[7,052,770]

It would be neat to see republicans win all four of the contests. I really want Kentucky.

It would be neat to see democrats win all four of the contests. I really want Mississippi.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A couple previews of PPP's Kentucky polling on Twitter:

"Libertarian candidate for State Treasurer in Kentucky polling at 16%- that says something about voter disgust right now."

"There's evidence within our Kentucky poll that Republican voters may stay home because of their weak Gov candidate. Helps down ballot Dems"

"Independents in Kentucky: Beshear leads Williams by 26, Romney leads Obama by 25."

[RogueBeaver]

As expected, Marionneaux will not challenge Jindal. So Hollis it is.

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/09/louisiana_senator_rob_marionne.html

[minionofmidas]

Primary and runoff maps to compare:



The grey county in the latter map was tied.

Second map is closer to being a racial map than the first, but still not actually a racial map.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

PPP teasing a single-digit race in WV:
http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/statuses/111133156794572800

[Tender Branson]

The guys from PPP seemed to have smoked something in the past month.

First the close NV poll when everything is pointing in the opposite direction and now this, when every poll has Tomblin with high approvals and 15-point leads.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Have there been any public polls of WV since the last time PPP looked at it?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rumor has it that former Congressman Cleo Fields is going to jump into the Louisiana gubernatorial election tomorrow (when the filing deadline is). He'd certainly be a better candidate than that Tara Hollis woman, but the map would still end up looking like this:



Democrats currently don't have a single candidate for any of the other statewide offices up in Louisiana. I think that Caroline Fayard woman is going to be a Secretary of State candidate, but I haven't heard of any others.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, that rumor turned out false. Jindal drew a bunch of nobody challengers, Caroline Fayard opted out of the Secretary of State race, and Democrats only filed in two of the six downballot statewide races.

In the State Senate, 22 seats have only Republicans running, 8 seats have only Democrats running, and 9 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The Senate is currently 22-17 Republican.

The House has 46 seats with only Republicans running (well, 45, plus one incumbent independent who has a Republican challenger), 31 seats have only Democrats running, and 28 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The House is currently 54-46 Republican with 4 independents (two are retiring, one is running as a Republican) and one vacant seat.

Hooray for competition...

[Meeker]

The Louisiana Democratic Party might as well not even exist. The two Democrats who did file for statewide races weren't recruited by the party; they're just random people who decided to run for office as a Democrat.

Absolutely pathetic.

[RogueBeaver]

LA: They're waiting for Mitch Landrieu to run against either Dardenne or JNK (Scalise is most likely going to boot Mary in '14) in '15.

[Miles]

(Scalise is most likely going to boot Mary in '14) in '15.

No one is gonna boot Mary in 2014.

Don't underestimate her.

[Talleyrand]

(Scalise is most likely going to boot Mary in '14) in '15.

No one is gonna boot Mary in 2014.

Don't underestimate her.

Even if she loses in the end, I highly doubt she'll go down like Blanche Lincoln.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Scalise would be a pretty poor candidate, but I'm not sure if Landrieu could survive even a poor opponent at this point, given how severely the state has shifted to the Republicans in the past few years.

[Miles]

The jungle primary will be back for 2014 as well; that will add an interesting dynamic.

[minionofmidas]

In the State Senate, 22 seats have only Republicans running, 8 seats have only Democrats running, and 9 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The Senate is currently 22-17 Republican.

Oh wow.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Joseph Cao's Attorney General bid was short-lived; he's dropped out already.