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| | |-+  2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV
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Author Topic: 2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV  (Read 9993 times)
Niemeyerite
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« Reply #125 on: October 04, 2011, 03:39:14 am »
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I say 51-46% Tomblin
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« Reply #126 on: October 04, 2011, 08:16:10 am »
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I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy?  Smiley

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Dem coalfield turnout in the early voting was quite good.  More populated areas was so-so.

Btw, Dems say that this race is between 4-6 points.  GOP says 1-3 points and closing.  My guess is like 51-46, 51-47, 52-47 or 52-46, or something like that because of the early voting numbers.  But who knows.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #127 on: October 04, 2011, 08:19:22 am »
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I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy?  Smiley

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Dem coalfield turnout in the early voting was quite good.  More populated areas was so-so.

Btw, Dems say that this race is between 4-6 points.  GOP says 1-3 points and closing.  My guess is like 51-46, 51-47, 52-47 or 52-46, or something like that because of the early voting numbers.  But who knows.

Yeah, I will slightly correct my prediction and say:

52.4% Tomblin
44.9% Maloney
  2.7% Others

There are 3 Indies and history has shown that Indies are doing quite well in WV.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #128 on: October 04, 2011, 02:53:46 pm »
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When are the polls closing again in WV ?

2am ?
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redcommander
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« Reply #129 on: October 04, 2011, 03:01:44 pm »
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When are the polls closing again in WV ?

2am ?

7:30 EST
4:30 PST
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #130 on: October 04, 2011, 03:03:28 pm »
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When are the polls closing again in WV ?

2am ?

7:30 EST
4:30 PST

Thx.

So, plus 6 hours - this is 1:30am for me then.
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« Reply #131 on: October 04, 2011, 04:09:56 pm »
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Here are a few articles from RealClearPolitics about this race in West Virginia:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/03/tomblin_and_maloney_in_tight_wva_governors_race.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/us-usa-campaign-westvirginia-idUSTRE79310C20111004
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« Reply #132 on: October 13, 2011, 06:56:23 pm »
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Fundraising numbers from Kentucky. Democrats have huge money leads for Governor, AG, Secretary of State, and Auditor. Treasurer is about even, and the Republican has a huge money lead for Agriculture Commissioner.
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« Reply #133 on: October 15, 2011, 11:36:04 am »
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LA: Jindal at 57%, no one above 5%, 29% undecided. Somewhere in the 70s if that holds.
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« Reply #134 on: October 18, 2011, 09:29:53 am »
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The Democratic candidate for Ag Commissioner in Kentucky is some humor writer; he's not a serious candidate.

I think it's possible for Democrats to win every statewide office besides that one though. SoS will probably be the closest one.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #135 on: October 22, 2011, 07:49:50 am »
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So, anyone care to predict Jindal's percentage tonight?
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« Reply #136 on: October 22, 2011, 09:21:37 am »
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The Democratic candidate for Ag Commissioner in Kentucky is some humor writer; he's not a serious candidate.

I think it's possible for Democrats to win every statewide office besides that one though. SoS will probably be the closest one.
http://www.bobfarmer.com/

Endorsed. (Yes, I have the correct Bob Farmer.)

And Braun has him leading by more than some of the other downballot races!
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« Reply #137 on: October 22, 2011, 10:45:25 am »
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So, anyone care to predict Jindal's percentage tonight?

Hard to say, but it will probably be around 70% with the undecideds factored in (+/- 5%).
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Miles
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« Reply #138 on: October 22, 2011, 11:33:13 am »
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So, anyone care to predict Jindal's percentage tonight?

Hard to say, but it will probably be around 70% with the undecideds factored in (+/- 5%).

On Red Racing Horses, they're saying his ceiling should be at 65%. I think I agree. Myself, I'll predict a bit higher, maybe 68%.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1244/louisiana-elections-preview
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« Reply #139 on: October 22, 2011, 10:17:38 pm »
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So, anyone care to predict Jindal's percentage tonight?

I said 65 and he's between 65 and 70.
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Miles
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« Reply #140 on: October 23, 2011, 11:36:46 am »
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So, anyone care to predict Jindal's percentage tonight?

I said 65 and he's between 65 and 70.

I predicted 68%, but its looks like its settling at 66%.
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« Reply #141 on: October 26, 2011, 07:57:01 pm »
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The MS governor's race has been bizarrely silent.  4 years ago, Eaves and Barbour were both running ads and slinging mud.  This year, nothing.  26 (the personhood amendment) is getting a lot of press, ads, etc., and there's been a bit of action in the AG race, but that's it.
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« Reply #142 on: November 08, 2011, 07:02:08 pm »
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KY is reporting:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/33652/48939/en/summary.html
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/KY_Governor_1108.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Second result seems to be faster. Beshear is winning 56-31-13 with about 10% in. All the downballot Dems except for Farmer are leading, though Hollenbach is only up 50-44.
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Miles
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« Reply #143 on: November 08, 2011, 07:40:16 pm »
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Shock!! 'Called for Beshear.

With 51% in, its 58-32-11 Beshear.
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Miles
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« Reply #144 on: November 08, 2011, 07:55:59 pm »
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With 56% in, Grimes is dominating 64-36 and the AP just called it for her.

She's definitely Senatorial material in 2014 or 2016; I see a ton of potential with her.
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Meeker
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« Reply #145 on: November 09, 2011, 01:23:33 pm »
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Galbraith actually beat Williams in a few counties.
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« Reply #146 on: November 10, 2011, 08:10:20 pm »
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I haven't followed the WV race but how did Tomblin win while barely winning Kanawha? Actually, I think the initial results showed it being Republican.
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« Reply #147 on: November 10, 2011, 08:22:16 pm »
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I haven't followed the WV race but how did Tomblin win while barely winning Kanawha? Actually, I think the initial results showed it being Republican.
He won the 3rd with like 67% of the vote and managed to get upper 40s in 1st and low fourties in 2nd.
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« Reply #148 on: November 10, 2011, 08:23:36 pm »
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I haven't followed the WV race but how did Tomblin win while barely winning Kanawha? Actually, I think the initial results showed it being Republican.
He won the 3rd with like 67% of the vote and managed to get upper 40s in 1st and low fourties in 2nd.

Was it a regional appeal and/or was Tomblin economically liberal and socially conservative?
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« Reply #149 on: November 10, 2011, 08:26:20 pm »
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I haven't followed the WV race but how did Tomblin win while barely winning Kanawha? Actually, I think the initial results showed it being Republican.
He won the 3rd with like 67% of the vote and managed to get upper 40s in 1st and low fourties in 2nd.

Was it a regional appeal and/or was Tomblin economically liberal and socially conservative?
Regional appeal and I'm sure he is economically liberal as he comes from coal country. Much of his lead comes from the fact that he won his home county with 90+% of the vote.

I don't know if he is socially conservative, but I don't why he wouldn't be.
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So it goes. heya.
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