2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Torie]

Doesn't WV have a heavy Dem registration edge, and if so, how can the registration numbers of those who voted mean very much unless the early vote is disproportionately Dem?  In a word, isn't WV packed with DINO's these days? Isn't it a bit like NY-09? Yes, I understand that the DINO effect might be more muted for state races as compared to federal ones.

[Torie]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

[Torie]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

It's what PPP used (55-35-10).

As for the Democratic percentage Maloney will get: I don't see him getting twice the share that Raese got last year. And there's a good chunk of Independents undecided, I guess there's a split.

OK, but Manchin was a very strong candidate, and Raese a weak one.  Unless you think that gap is replicated this time, that is not how I would analyze it. Also the environment has deteriorated for Dems in WV since 2010 into the absolute disaster zone. We shall see.

[Torie]

So all the Democrats are predicting a Tomblin victory and all the Republicans a Maloney victory. Shocking.

Actually I was smart enough to make no prediction, because I have no idea.   And give Phil "credit." See the post immediately above.

[Torie]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

[Torie]

OK, a turnout issue. That makes particular sense in a special election. Thanks.