2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[7,052,770]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

[7,052,770]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

I think Bryant wins the GOP primary with 67% of the vote.

Yeah, I predict Bryant wins without a runoff too.  I'll say he gets 59% of the vote (which is essentially a number out of a hat).

[7,052,770]

Yeah, I predict Bryant wins without a runoff too.  I'll say he gets 59% of the vote (which is essentially a number out of a hat).

Gotta be proud of that prediction.  Didn't see the Democratic runoff coming though.  I never would have dreamed the two joke candidates would combine for 17% of the vote.

The Democratic runoff will have virtually no turnout, and that's bad news for DuPree.

[7,052,770]

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2244094181

^^^This guy made it to double-digits in the Democratic primary.

Lot of True Blood fans in the state.

[7,052,770]

On the other hand, 386,000 voted in the Democratic primary to 279,000 in the Republican primary, thanks to superconservative sheriffs and county officials running as Democrats.  The people who wanted to vote for them voted in the Democratic primary but surely won't be voting in the governor runoff.
I highly doubt many of those voted for DuPree.  Some of them probably voted against the black guy, or against the liberal, or just randomly (a possible explanation of how the two joke candidates combined for 17%).

I wouldn't be shocked either way, but I'm going to predict a DuPree victory in the runoff.

[7,052,770]

After looking it up, Guy Shaw did win his home county, but I still have no idea who the hell he is.  No website, no information on the Internet at all.

[7,052,770]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win, due to white conservative Republicans not voting in the Democratic runoffs, which I think will have a bigger effect than a traditionally low black turnout.

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked with even a 20-point win by either candidate.  It's all a shot in the dark.

[7,052,770]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win

I'm on fire

[7,052,770]

I'm guessing it's a reference to Medgar Evers' brother in 1971, but I thought he was an Independent.

[7,052,770]

Supposedly Bryant and Barbour don't really get along.  To the point that Barbour wouldn't mind seeing Bryant lose.  It won't really matter, but don't expect to see Barbour out campaigning for Bryant.

[7,052,770]

Haley and Kirk never topped 58%, so I doubt Phil Bryant will either (not that it matters).

I'll still to Bryant winning 55-44 until I see something to change my mind.

[7,052,770]

It would be neat to see republicans win all four of the contests. I really want Kentucky.

It would be neat to see democrats win all four of the contests. I really want Mississippi.

[7,052,770]

The MS governor's race has been bizarrely silent.  4 years ago, Eaves and Barbour were both running ads and slinging mud.  This year, nothing.  26 (the personhood amendment) is getting a lot of press, ads, etc., and there's been a bit of action in the AG race, but that's it.