The Man from California 1972

[NHI]

A New Timeline: Hubert Humphrey, narrowly defeats Richard Nixon in 1968. The Presidency is already mared in controversy, due to the closeness of the election. Pres. Humphrey attempts to end the Vietnam War, but finds himself escalating it, while dealing with social unrest at home.

With America coming apart at the seams Pres. Humphrey announces that he will not run for reelection, earning him the nickname, "LBJ, Junior". With Vice-President Muskie announcing that he will succeed him, the Democratic Party scrambles to find another candidate as insiders fear Muskie will be tainted from the Humphrey Administration, and the quest begins for a new candidate.

1968 Map:

D: 273: 41.15%
R: 248: 42.95%
I:   17:  14.50%

With the Democrats searching for a new candidate, the Republicans Field began to take shape, with three  top tier candidates.
Frontrunners: George Romney
Dark horse:   Gerald Ford
and: Ronald Reagan.






Polling: Republicans
Romney: 45%
Reagan:   21%
Ford:        14%
Agnew:     12%
Other:      8%

Polling: Democrats

Muskie: 22%
Kennedy: 20%
Jackson: 19%
McCarthy: 15%
McGovern: 12%
Sandford:   6%
Lindsay:     1%

More to come... The Republican Announcements and Primaries.

[NHI]

The Republicans:



Ronald Reagan announced his campaign for President in the fall of 1971, promising, "to bring about common sense solution in the White House, and to make this country believe in itself once again. We still are a force for good, the light of the world, the hope of the earth, and we will reaffirm that next November."

Gerald Ford soon followed, though considered a dark horse, due to his lack of name recognition, most pundits assumed he would surpass Reagan in the polls and could take on frontrunner George Romney, who announced his campaign for President right before the Iowa Caucus in December.

A few others fell into line, most saw the race as between: Reagan, Romney and Ford, with the strong possibility of Ford knocking Reagan and out early.

On the Democratic Side a plethora of candidate announced:

As expected Ed Muskie announced his candidate in his home state of Maine. Along with Muskie came George McGovern, Henry Jackson, Birch Bayh, Walter Mondale, and Shirley Chisholm.

The big heavyweight Ted Kennedy announced he would not run, but did not close the door on the Vice-Presidency. With Kennedy bowing out the democratic establishment who did not want to back Muskie looked for another candidate. With McGovern gaining traction, they turned their focus to Walter Mondale.

However, Mondale's campaign had a tough time getting off the ground and as the Iowa caucus approached, many worried that he would not be the best candidate.

Iowa Caucus:
McGovern: 36%
Muskie:     22%
Bayh:        19%
Mondale:    15%
Other:         8%

Following Iowa a shocking surprise came, as Ted Kennedy who had declared that he would not run announced, just a month before the New Hampshire primary, that he had reconsidered and would run for President.

The race instantly became:
Kennedy: 44%
Muskie:    22%
McGovern: 18%

Following Iowa, Walter Mondale, joined a crop of candidates who dropped out and supported Ted Kennedy.

On the Republican side, Gerald Ford pulled a surprise win in Iowa, and set himself up as the frontrunner for New Hampshire.

Iowa:

Ford: 39%
Romney: 34%
Reagan:  21%
Other:     6%

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Pretty cool, though a couple things:
1) I don't think Gerald Ford would run. His ambition was never to be President, but to be Speaker.
2) When did Conally switch to the Republicans? In real life, he switched in 1973, and that was due to him working for Nixon. He actually supported HHH in 1968 and headed Democrats for Nixon in 1972.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Not to mention that some of the results in the south would be unlikely (Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida).

[NHI]

I Fixed with Connally, I had forgotten he switched. Thanks for catching that.

NH:

With Gerald Ford leading in some polls in New Hampshire and Reagan polling a distant third, most pundits predicated the Granite State would be his waterloo. However, Reagan pulled an unexpected upset over Ford and Romney and took first place in the primary, with Romney coming in a distant second.



Reagan: 51%
Romney: 29%
Ford:       14%

Red: Reagan
Blue: Ford
Green: Romney

On the Democratic side, things were not going as well. In shocking upset, Ed Muskie went onto narrowly beat Ted Kennedy in New Hampshire.

Muskie: 39%
Kennedy: 37%
McGovern: 15%

Muskie's win threw the Democratic Party into disarray, as many expected the sudden entrance of Kennedy would allow him to secure the nomination. Many attributed Kennedy's involvement in Chapaquidick as the reason for his loss in New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, going into Florida Reagan trounced Ford and Romney easily.

FL:

Reagan: 55%
Romney: 22%
Ford:       19%

On the Democratic Side, McGovern proved to still have the fire in his campaign and managed to upset Kennedy and Muskie.

FL:

McGovern: 43%
Kennedy:   29%
Muskie:      21%

While it was becoming clear that Reagan would most likely be the nominee, it was still unsure on the Democratic side. Kennedy campaigned heavily in Illinois, hoping to trounce Muskie and McGovern. Despite losing in all polls Kennedy defeated Muskie and McGovern.

IL:

Kennedy: 44%
McGovern: 30%
Muskie:      20%

[NHI]

Heading into the Wisconsin Primary Romney ended his campaign, after suffering a defeat in Illinois,  and announced his support for Ronald Reagan. Reagan and Ford headed in dead even, but Ford managed to eek out a win over Reagan.

IL:
Reagan: 50%
Ford:      30%
Romney: 25%



WI:
Ford: 50%
Reagan: 47%

On the Democratic Side, Ted Kennedy scored another victory over his opponents.

WI:
Kennedy: 48%
McGovern: 40%
Muskie:      10%

Most polling indicated a close race, but Reagan seemed to fare the worse.



Kennedy vs. Ford:

R: 45%
D: 44%

Kennedy vs. Reagan:

D: 47%
R: 39%

Muskie vs. Ford:

R: 47%
D: 40%

Reagan vs. Muskie:

R: 47%
D: 44%

Reagan vs. McGovern:

R: 49%
D: 39%

Ford vs. McGovern:

R: 49%
D: 39%


Ted Kennedy scored another victory on April 25, in the Massachusetts Primary.

MA:

Kennedy: 62%
McGovern: 21%
Muskie:     10%

On the Republican side Ford defeated Reagan again.

MA:

Ford: 51%
Reagan: 48%

On May 2nd Reagan and Ford headed into a three state contest, and many saw it as Reagan's last stand. A poll indicated that Republicans were evenly split on who would be the better nominee.

Reagan: 47%
Ford:      47%

On May 2nd, Reagan trounced Ford in Indiana, Washington,DC and Ohio, then went on two days later to defeat him in Tennessee and then North Carolina.

On the Democratic Side, the results were divided. Kennedy carried Washington, DC and Ohio, but McGovern carried Indiana. Muskie ended his campaign, but would not announce his support for a candidate.

At the same time Pres. Humphrey announced his intentions to begin a drawdown in Vietnam, something that came to a shock to many.




Following his defeats Gerald Ford ended his campaign and announced his support for Ronald Reagan, announcing that he will be the next President of the United States. Many saw this him positioning himself for the Vice-Presidency, but Ford denied it, sighting he was interested in the Speakership.

McGovern and Kennedy would battle out the remainder of the primaries, with them evenly splitting the results, proving there to be no winner. The two headed into the the convention to make their case...

[NHI]

Ronald Reagan announced his pick of George Romney for the Vice-President, to great a response from the Convention. Both were nominated overwhelmingly. "Let's make America great again. Let us defeat this menace in Vietnam once and fall, stop inflation, and see that America remains as shinning city on a hill. For I want it to be that way, you want it to be that way. America is that, and I am going to fight for it."

On the Democratic side McGovern and Kennedy went into their convention, making their case



The majority of the delegates favored Kennedy's nomination and many suspected he'd get it on the first ballot.

Kennedy: 1,729
McGovern: 525
Muskie:      382
Mondale:   152
Jackson:      78
Sandford: 67
McCarthy: 34
Mills:         25
Hays:        13
Chisholm:  6
Humprhey:  1



Kennedy won on the first ballot and selected McGovern as his running mate, which seemed to unite the division in the party. In his acceptance speech, Kennedy proclaimed that, "the American Dream will be revivied under new leadership, new direction and we won't let the republicans take that from us, and we won't let them take it from America!"

In a head-to-head matchup against Kennedy, Reagan still trailed.

Kennedy: 48%
Reagan:   44%



In the midsts of the campaign Reagan offered to debate Kennedy, but he refused.



When asked, most people were still skeptical of a President Ronald Reagan, do to some of his aggressive statements regarding the Soviet Union and Nuclear weaponry. Kennedy played on that and tried to paint Reagan as a trigger happy cowboy.

Going into election day Kennedy still led Reagan.

D: 47%
R: 45%

Election Night 1972:

Good Evening, and welcome to Election Night 1972. The two candidates Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and Edward Kennedy for the Democrats, compete amid a war in Vietnam and domestic uncertainty at home.

We are able to make our first projections of the night for Gov. Reagan. The states of Tennesse, Kentucky and Georiga have gone for Gov. Reagan tonight.

R: 31
D:   0

And we can now project the state of West Virginia for Sen. Kennedy now.

WV:

D: 51%
R: 48%

R: 31
D:  6

Gov. Reagan now leads in the electoral count, but we still have many states to project winners, and states that are undecided at this moment, so we'll see as the night goes along. Will Ted Kennedy be able to survive the Democratic Malaise and win the Presidency, or will the underdog Ronald Reagan upset the last of the Kennedy brothers.