Bernie Sanders says Obama needs primaried?

[anvi]

I think that was rather predictable.  The hard left of the Democratic party hate the president, think he is a traitor and practically a third-term Bush '43, and they want to get somebody like Kucinich or Sanders himself to primary Obama.  This is not that last time we'll see a call for a Dem primary challenger this year, and who knows?  Someone might step up just to make the liberal case.

[anvi]

The thing is, thinking through it for a few moments, a liberal primary challenger to Obama would get so massively overwhelmed in the early states that running such a challenge would actually hurt the liberals' case.  Only about 20% of Iowa voters identify themselves as liberal, New Hampshire Democrats are pretty famously moderate, Nevada Democrats, many of them Hispanic, are not going to turn away from a president who put a Latino woman on the Supreme Court and at least supported the Dream Act, though he didn't pass it, and South Carolina Democrats, with a big African American base, are going to stick with Obama too.  

I think, if the liberals wanted to make their case, they should do something like host a kind of public "summit" with Obama, where they could air their grievances and try to pin him down on some commitments, instead.  Running a primary challenger who would only get destroyed with elemental fury in the early states would not do much to advance their agenda.  And, besides, eating your young is not a good way to stay in power; Jimmy Carter could relate a few stories about that.

[anvi]

Well, Lyndon, whether one prefers the word "hate" or "displeased," if they prefer to stay at home rather than go to the polls next year, Obama will be toast.  They want to air their grievances, in any case.  I'm just saying that holding a "summit" where they would get to do that would be a better idea than running a primary challenger.

[anvi]

Well, Lyndon, whether one prefers the word "hate" or "displeased," if they prefer to stay at home rather than go to the polls next year, Obama will be toast.   They want to air their grievances, in any case.  I'm just saying that holding a "summit" where they would get to do that would be a better idea than running a primary challenger.

I really think that will be the #1 decider in the election anvikshiki.......We can have lots of fun making ev maps and such showing every pub candidate vs. Obama.....but all those projections are useless if a Dem turnout is in the tank.

Agreed, Gramps.  I don't know exactly where independents will be next fall, but my money is on independent support for Obama definitely being down from last time, and other demographics may be slightly down too.  If liberal turnout is lackluster, and with unemployment still high and the whole spectrum of the GOP fired up to oust him, it's hard to see how Obama can win. 

[anvi]

What percentage of voters who voted for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012 do you think?  Just asking. I actually know someone who did that.

Good question.  Some of that cross-section of voters were probably conservative Democrats who were worried about security in 2004 and then swung back in 2008.  Obviously, some of that population must have been self-identified independents, with some shape of a default persuasion, too.  Probably most of the first group of conservative Dems will stick with Obama in 2012.  But, since the economy and not security will be the most important issue next year, I'd venture a guess that, as long as the GOP nominee isn't a nutter, maybe somewhere around a half of the independents in this group will either vote for the GOP nominee or sit the election out.  The independents in this cross-section are a bigger group, so their votes or abstentions will have more of an impact.