Clinton/Lynch vs. Romney/Perry

[NHI]

New Timeline coming:

Pres. Obama announces in September of 2011 that he will not run for reelection. His announcement is seen as a blow to the Democrats. With Vice President Biden staying out of the race, Hillary Clinton becomes the heir apparent for the nomination. After much reluctance she decides to enter the race in January of 2012, a month before the New Hampshire Primary. She steps down as Secretary of State and is replaced by John Kerry.

There is a minor primary challenge from Bernie Sanders and Russ Feingold, but Clinton crushes them in Iowa, then in New Hampshire. She goes onto easily claim the nomination and selects Gov. John Lynch of New Hampshire as her running mate.

On the Republican side, after brief challenge from Rick Perry in Iowa, Mitt Romney goes onto win the nomination and chooses Perry as his VP candidate.

Clinton and Romney goes into the race neck and neck.

Romney: 46%
Clinton:   46%

Coming soon.

[NHI]

Clinton vs. Romney: Projected Map

Light Red: Lean Clinton
Light Blue: Lean Romney
Dark Red:  Strong Clinton
Dark Blue: Strong Romney
Gray:         Tossup

Key States:

NH:
D: 49%
R: 45%

FL:
R: 48%
D: 47%

OH:
R: 48%
D: 48%

CO:
R: 50%
D: 46%

NV:
R: 50%
D: 45%

MI:
D: 48%
R: 47%


Clinton and Romney hit the campaign trail.

At the Democratic Convention Clinton made her case, while she sighted some of Pres. Obama's accomplishments, such as Health Care, she largely remained focused on her own agenda and what she would do as President. Notably absent from the event was Pres. Obama, who originally planned to nominate Sec. Clinton, but at the last minute withdrew and gave a televised speech from Oval Office.

Many saw this as Clinton trying to distance herself from the President as she went up against Mitt Romney.



While there existed some dissatisfaction with the Democrats, the GOP was entirely united coming out of the convention. Tea Party members were more comfortable with Romney, with Perry on the ticket.

In Romney's acceptance speech he delivered a volley of attacks on the Obama Administration, while silently picking at Clinton.
"We may have a new candidate, but the policies will not be new. It will be nothing more than a continuation of the policies that got us into the mess we're in now. We don't need more of Barack Obama's politics, we don't need a new democrat in the form of Hillary Clinton, we need a new President and a new party, and my friends I ask for the chance for me to be that President."

Polling:
Clinton vs. Romney:
Romney: 48%
Clinton:   46%

Revised Projection:

R: 228
D: 206

As of September the Democrats were dealt another blow. Prior to the conventions the unemployment rate had been hovering at around 9%, in July it had dipped to 8.9%, but following the conventions it had spiked back up to 9.1%.


"Enough is enough," Romney stated. "Unemployment keeps going up, not down. I look forward to making my case against Sec. Clinton in our first debate in Nevada."

Polling:
Romney vs. Clinton

R: 49%
D: 46%

More to come...

[NHI]

In the first Presidential Debate, which was moderated by Brian Williams had Romney attacking Clinton on the economy. She rebuffed Romney's attacks by saying that she was not in office.

"I'm not the incumbent President, Mitt. I know you wanted to run against Pres. Obama, but I'm not Pres. Obama. I'm Hillary Clinton and I'm running for President of the United States."

The respone brought a massive applause from the audience, but Romney responded with a counter attack.

"I am well aware that you are not Pres. Obama, Madame Secretary, but you are running on the same policies that have made this recession worse. With unemployment at 9.1%, we don't need a new President with the same old policies, we need a new President with new policies and Madame Secretary I am running to be that President."



The debate was seen by most as a draw between Clinton and Romney.


Romney headed to New Hampshire following the debate and continued promoting his plan on how to get the American economy going.

[NHI]

The second debate which focused on foreign policy resulted in a Clinton victory. The third debate was in a town hall format was seen as a Romney victory. In it he seemed to channel Ronald Reagan and echoed the phrase, "Are you better off then you were four years ago?"



Polling:
Romney vs. Clinton:

R: 48%
D: 47%

Romney wrapped up the final few weeks of campaign by visiting the key swingstates. Clinton, depite being behind in most polls ran with an incumbent feel and believed the American people would side in with her.

Polling:
Who do you trust more to deal with the economy?
Romney: 55%
Clinton:   43%

Who do you trust more to deal with foreign policy?
Clinton: 59%
Romney: 38%

Who do you believe would be the better President?
Romney: 48%
Clinton:   48%

....
Election Night 2012:

Brian Williams: Good Evening, and welcome to NBC's Election Night coverage. I'm Brian Williams, along with our political coverage team. Tonight is certainly going to be an interesting night, which ever way it goes. Most polls indicate a dead even race between former Governor Mitt Romney and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.



Williams: We project Gov. Romney the winner in the states of Georiga, South Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana. As for Sec. Clinton we project the state of Vermont.

Romney: 44
Clinton:    3

[NHI]

Williams: We now bring in David Gregory to discuss what is going on, well not much is going on, but enlighten us David.

Gregory: Looking at the map, Romney seems to be doing better than expected in the south, which is probably attributed to Perry's presence on the ticket. Now looking at some exit polling, Romney seems to be doing well across the spectrum.

When asked do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?
Yes: 36%
No: 63%

What is the most important issue in this election?
The economy: 65%

Is the country headed in the right direction?
Yes: 30%
No:  69%

Do you approve of Sec. Hillary Clinton? (Democrats)
Yes: 79%
No:  19%

Do you approve of Sec. Hillary Clinton? (Republicans)
Yes: 35%
No:  63%

Do you approve of Gov. Mitt Romney? (Democrats)
Yes: 33%
No:  65%

Do you approve of Gov. Mitt Romney? (Republicans)
Yes: 79%
No:  19%

Do you approve of Gov. Mitt Romney? (Tea Party affiliated)
Yes: 68%
No:  30%

Williams: We are coming up on the eight o'clock hour and we have projections to make. We'll start first in the Northeast. We project that the state of Maine will go for Hillary Clinton. We project, Massachusetts, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, The District of Columbia and Illinois.

We project for Gov. Romney the states of: Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma.

R: 82
D: 75

Gregory: There you have it, Mitt Romney will a slight leader of Mrs. Clinton, but we have along way to go.

Williams: Let us look at the state of Ohio, because no state has been more fought over than this one here.

Gregory: Yes, It is Romney with a thin lead, but it is narrow so we cannot project a winner.

OH:
Romney: 49.4% (2,741,698)
Clinton:  49.0% (2,716,199)

FL:
Romney: 50.0% (3,572,657)
Clinton:  49.2%  (3,515,494)

NH:
Clinton: 50.9%   (286,806)
Romney: 48.3% (274,311)

We can make a projection for Sec. Clinton, we project that she will carry the state of New Hampshire.

Romney: 82
Clinton:  79

[NHI]

Williams: As we went to break we projected Sec. Clinton the winner in the state of New Hampshire, and we can now project Mitt Romney the winner in Missouri.

Gregory: As we know Gov. Romney and his family is in Massachusetts, watching the results with their family, and we have just learned that Gov. Perry and his family have landed at Logan and will be heading over to watch the results at a nearby hotel.

Romney: 92
Clinton:   79

Williams: We're now going to go to White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, Chuck how are things going at the White House?

Todd: The President has had a quiet day. He had a brief conference this morning on the economy, then headed to Chicago with Mrs. Obama and cast their votes, and our watching the results in the family quarters of the White House.

Williams: What states are they looking at?

Todd: Well, the President as you know did not do much campaigning. He did no events with Sec. Clinton, presumably in her effort to distance herself from him. For presently the President's approval rating stands at 40%, which is not terrible, but Clinton is aware of his unpopularity.

Williams: Now one has to wonder how things would be tonight if it was the President vs. Gov. Romney?

Todd: I think, judging by his approval ratings we'd see a much quicker race, in favor of Pres-- Gov. Romney. With a handful of states still outstanding, Sec. Clinton is clearly doing better than expected.

Williams: Thank you Chuck. Chuck Todd at the White House, now back to David Gregory, and we have some results on some senate races we've been watching.

Gregory: In Virginia we projected that George Allen has defeated Tim Kaine.

VA:
R: 51%
D: 47%

This is shocking, for Kaine was leading in most polls up until a few days ago, and it seems that Allen managed to close the gap.

In Massachusetts, Scott Brown has been elected to his own six year term. He has defeated challenger Mike Capuano, easily.

MA:
R: 54%
D: 43%

Williams: Hold it for a moment David, we have a projection to make in North Carolina. We project when all the votes are counted, Gov. Romney will be carry the state of North Carolina.

NC:
R: 53%
D: 44%

Romney: 107 (20,933,041)
Clinton:    79  (17,628,377)

Williams: David, your thoughts. North Carolina, site of the Democrat's convention.

Gregory: Well, it wasn't likely to go back to the Democrats, but the Clinton camp thought they could carry it, but Romney outspent her 3-1 in the state.

Williams: Probably, having Perry on the ticket helped as well.

Gregory: I think so.

Williams: Well it is now nine o'clock on the east coast and we have more states to call.

Clinton:
New York
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Wisconsin

Romney:
Louisiana
Texas
Nebraska
Kansas
South Dakota
Wyoming
Colorado

Romney: 179
Clinton:   132

Williams: It is still Gov. Romney with a lead, but it is the major battleground states that we are still waiting on, for they will decide who will occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the next four years.

We do have another projection to make, Sec. Clinton will carry her old home state of Arkansas.

AR:
D: 49.6%
R: 49.0%

Romney: 179
Clinton:   138

Williams: With Mrs. Clinton being able to take Arkansas, is this a sign, David Gregory?

Gregory: It maybe Brian. She led narrowly throughout the race, but her husband was a popular governor in the state, so I can see why she did carry it, but it is closer than I would have predicted.

Williams: We can also project that Maine Senator, Olympia Snowe has been reelected. She survived two primary challenges, and a three person race with Tea Party candidate: Scott D' Amboise

ME:
R: 52%
T: 32%
D: 15%

Williams: We do have another major projection to make. A little over an hour after the polls have closed, we now project that Sec. Clinton will carry the state of Pennsylvania.

PA:
Clinton: 52%
Romney: 47%

An important state to go tonight, and it stays Democratic again.

Romney: 179
Clinton:   158

Williams: We now go to our correspondent Lester Holt at the Romney campaign. How is the feeling, knowing that the Keystone State has gone for Clinton?

Holt: Well, Brian Gov. Romney expected to carry this state and, --

Williams: Please hold on Lester, NBC can now project that Gov. Romney will carry the state of Virginia.

VA:
Romney: 52%
Clinton:  46%

Romney: 192
Clinton:   158

More to come...

[NHI]

10:00

Williams: We project that Gov. Romney has carried the states of: Montana, and Utah.

Romney: 212
Clinton:   163

Gregory: We need to interject now that Gov. Romney has carried the state of Ohio. Ohio has gone for Romney.

OH:
Romney: 53%
Clinton:   46%

Romney: 230
Clinton:   163

Williams: We cannot overstate the importance of this state. Both candidates campaigned heavily in the state, and while a few hours ago we thought the tide was turning it seems things are falling in line for Gov. Romney.

Gregory: Despite a lead in some polls, Brian Gov. Romney ran like the underdog throughout this entire campaign. From the primary and through the general election.

Williams: We are now looking at footage from inside Romney Headquarters, where the news just broke over Ohio. Let's go to Lester Holt,



Holt: Brian, the crowd is elated. Ohio was the state they've been waiting for and it has gone for Mitt Romney. There is a growing feeling in the room that if things keep going their way Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States, but those closer to Romney are a bit more reserved.

Williams: Thank you Lester. Now looking to the state of Florida. Gov. Romney holds a narrow lead over Sec. Clinton, but it is still too close to call.

FL:
Romney: 50.1%
Clinton:   49.0%

[tmthforu94]

Interesting scenario. Despite Clinton's popularity, I honestly can't see her winning this when Obama's approval rating is at 36%, thought.

[NHI]

Williams: Welcome back, and as we went to break we projected Florida for Gov. Romney and we cannot underscore the importance of this state. It was the decider in 2000, it went for Pres. Obama in 2008 and tonight it goes for Mitt Romney.

Romney: 259
Clinton:   163

Williams: So, Mr. Gregory, looking at the map and seeing that Gov. Romney is just shy of the number needed to be elected President, can Sec. Hillary Clinton pull out a win?

Gregory: If we play around with the map and give North Dakota to him, that brings his total to 262 electoral votes. Then adding Idaho and its four, then Alaska's three. That would bring him to 269.

Williams: So not plausible.

Gregory: At this stage Mrs. Clinton needs a miracle.



Williams: Well, we're not getting word from the AP that they are calling Nevada for Mitt Romney. Now looking at our projections and the raw data we feel comfortable to project Nevada for Mr. Romney tonight.

Romney: 265
Clinton:   163

Williams: Well, it is ten minutes to eleven and we are ready to make a projection that many of you probably saw as inevitable, but NBC now projects based on a win in the state of Michigan that Gov. Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States.

Mitt Romney Elected

Romney: 281
Clinton:   163

Final Results:

Romney: 297
Clinton:  241

Mitt Romney: 64,246,857 50.05%
Hillary Clinton: 62,806,280 48.93%