Rasmussen: Obama 41%, Paul 37% (Paul wins 18-29 year olds, indies)

[AUH2O Libertarian]

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The poll is from last month so I don't know why they just released it yesterday.

I can't post the link because I don't have enough posts, so just go to rasmussen dot com and follow it with:
 
/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_41_ron_paul_37


Rasmussen's Other Polls To-date for reference:

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Some interesting crosstaps:

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Paul would need to shore up conservatives and Republicans in the general.  He'd probably have to pick a Southern conservative (Governor Haley, possibly) to do so.

What I find most interesting though is that he actually BEATS Obama with the under 30 crowd.  Other than Romney, none of the other GOP contenders even come close.

[tmthforu94]

Some weird things I noticed:

- Palin winning among Independents and not getting smashed

- Paul winning the Youth (Not against Paul, I just don't see any Republican beating Obama here)


I actually think Paul could defeat Obama if things fell into place.

I think the Romney vs. Obama numbers look somewhat legitimate, which is also a nice sign. I think it shows how much trouble our nation is in when Sarah Palin is performing better than Jon Huntsman.

[AUH2O Libertarian]

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I don't think either is too surprising, actually.

As a young person, I can confirm that Paul is VERY popular amongst kids my age (in college).  Young voters are his base.  He's kind of a cult icon amongst college students - even those that don't care at all about politics know about Ron Paul.  "Ron Paul 2012" is only graffitied on almost every bathroom stall and desk on my campus.  And Obama's novelty has wore off - he's seen as just another war President.  We still like him MUCH better than typical socially conservative Republicans, that's for sure.

As to the first point, I think people make the mistake in thinking that all independents fit in some nice little spectrum between center right Mitt Romney and center left Hillary Clinton.  In fact I think most independents are sick of both parties and attracted to candidates that aren't seen as being simply party shills.  That's why independents like everyone from Nader and Kucinich to Buchanan and Paul.  Indies I think are less looking for someone "moderate" and more looking for someone different and principled.

Some additional data:

Women: Paul loses women to Obama 31% to 46%

Paul's worst demographic is 'income under $20K' which Obama picks up 57% to 18%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some weird things I noticed:

- Palin winning among Independents and not getting smashed

- Paul winning the Youth (Not against Paul, I just don't see any Republican beating Obama here)


I actually think Paul could defeat Obama if things fell into place.

I think the Romney vs. Obama numbers look somewhat legitimate, which is also a nice sign. I think it shows how much trouble our nation is in when Sarah Palin is performing better than Jon Huntsman.

Which is why I'm calling BS.... Palin would NOT win among independents... and more importantly, most college Paul supporters don't really know much about what Paul genuinely believes, or appreciate the effect - all they know is that he wants to legalise pot and cut defense spending...

I'm serious - I'd be really curious to know what knowledge young Paul supporters have of his wider policy platform...

[ajc0918]

Some weird things I noticed:

- Palin winning among Independents and not getting smashed

- Paul winning the Youth (Not against Paul, I just don't see any Republican beating Obama here)


I actually think Paul could defeat Obama if things fell into place.

I think the Romney vs. Obama numbers look somewhat legitimate, which is also a nice sign. I think it shows how much trouble our nation is in when Sarah Palin is performing better than Jon Huntsman.

Which is why I'm calling BS.... Palin would NOT win among independents... and more importantly, most college Paul supporters don't really know much about what Paul genuinely believes, or appreciate the effect - all they know is that he wants to legalise pot and cut defense spending...

I'm serious - I'd be really curious to know what knowledge young Paul supporters have of his wider policy platform...

As if most college supporters knew what Obama stood for, and "Change" doesn't count.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The kids love hearing about the gold standard.

[AUH2O Libertarian]

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Oops - I thought you said Paul winning indies, not Palin.  That is surprising, actually.

As for Paul, most know darn well what he stands for - ending our overseas empire, tightening monetary policy significantly, raining in out of control entitlements which we have no hope of ever seeing anyways, and yes, ending the failed war on drugs.

"End the Fed" and "End the Failed Drug War" are definitely more substantive than "Hope and Change".

[King]

I don't think anyone can deny that Paul would do better than a lot of these nutjob GOP candidates in the general. But he ain't coming close to sniffing the nomination.

[Torie]

Pretty disturbing.  The asylum is becoming more and more like an island of sanity by comparison.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Some weird things I noticed:

- Palin winning among Independents and not getting smashed

- Paul winning the Youth (Not against Paul, I just don't see any Republican beating Obama here)


I actually think Paul could defeat Obama if things fell into place.

I think the Romney vs. Obama numbers look somewhat legitimate, which is also a nice sign. I think it shows how much trouble our nation is in when Sarah Palin is performing better than Jon Huntsman.

Which is why I'm calling BS.... Palin would NOT win among independents... and more importantly, most college Paul supporters don't really know much about what Paul genuinely believes, or appreciate the effect - all they know is that he wants to legalise pot and cut defense spending...

I'm serious - I'd be really curious to know what knowledge young Paul supporters have of his wider policy platform...

As if most college supporters knew what Obama stood for, and "Change" doesn't count.

He stood for an end to Bush-era imperialism, crony capitalism, a failed health care system and backwards social policy that still defended DOMA/DADT. As if anyone only voted for Obama based on his slogans and logo, sure there might be a few cultural Democrats or trend hoppers but I'd say the youth grasped his platform pretty well.

Of course he hasn't achieved any of the above, which is part of why his approval ratings have crashed so hard among the youth. They haven't become any more conservative, they've just become disillusioned with Obama.

[DrScholl]

Another Rasmussen poll, next.

[Chaddyr23]

I've yet to meet anyone among my age group that's fawning over Paul. I'm slacking it seems

[Username MechaRFK]

I've yet to meet anyone among my age group that's fawning over Paul. I'm slacking it seems

Shocking. And this is besides the internet.

[Reluctant Republican]

I think Paul would perform better against Obama then Bachmann would. I have my doubts that either could win, but really comes down to the economy.

For many college aged voters, the only thing they really care about with Paul is that he wants to end the wars. I would count myself in this group. His economic platform is actually of much less importance to me.( Though auditing the Fed would be nice) And besides, I figure he'll really get little passed due to Congress. But if he can reduce our presence overseas and work to end the drug war, we'll save billions, which is my primary concern.

[Meeker]

What folks need to understand about Paul's public perception is that he's the only one who's been contributing to it. No one - beyond a few swipes in the Republican presidential debate - bothers to attack him because he's irrelevant. So he's had free reign to define himself.

If under some twilight zone scenario he actually became the Republican nominee the Obama campaign and the entire Democratic establishment would spend nine months doing nothing but trying to destroy him. He'd quickly go from an anti-war, anti-establishment, smaller-government proponent to the nutcase who wants to make massive cuts to the defense budget, abolish social security and Medicare, repeal the Civil Rights Act, and who wouldn't've launched the operation to kill bin Laden.

[Reluctant Republican]

What folks need to understand about Paul's public perception is that he's the only one who's been contributing to it. No one - beyond a few swipes in the Republican presidential debate - bothers to attack him because he's irrelevant. So he's had free reign to define himself.

If under some twilight zone scenario he actually became the Republican nominee the Obama campaign and the entire Democratic establishment would spend nine months doing nothing but trying to destroy him. He'd quickly go from an anti-war, anti-establishment, smaller-government proponent to the nutcase who wants to make massive cuts to the defense budget, abolish social security and Medicare, repeal the Civil Rights Act, and who wouldn't've launched the operation to kill bin Laden.

Oh I know, which is part of the reason I'm not sure he could win. If he managed to get the nomination, I'd give him about a 10% chance of victory. Especially since it would not surprise me if more hawkish Republicans formed a third party to run under if he got the nod. At the very least there would be a lot of Republicans staying home. And given that even I cringe when he's giving a debate answer sometimes, given his tendency to sometimes make little sense when he talks.

I recognize it's a pipe dream. But given this will quite possibly be his last hurrah, I'm inclined to go down with the ship. :-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

If any evidence was required (really?) that polls at this stage are really nothing more than boredom-relief exercises for political junkies who probably should be out getting laid then.... well, I give you exhibit A.

[TheGlobalizer]

I'd gladly watch a Paul/Obama election even if it meant 4 more years of Obama.  It'd be a laugh riot.

[nhmagic]

What folks need to understand about Paul's public perception is that he's the only one who's been contributing to it. No one - beyond a few swipes in the Republican presidential debate - bothers to attack him because he's irrelevant. So he's had free reign to define himself.

If under some twilight zone scenario he actually became the Republican nominee the Obama campaign and the entire Democratic establishment would spend nine months doing nothing but trying to destroy him. He'd quickly go from an anti-war, anti-establishment, smaller-government proponent to the nutcase who wants to make massive cuts to the defense budget, abolish social security and Medicare, repeal the Civil Rights Act, and who wouldn't've launched the operation to kill bin Laden.

First, dems will and do say that about any republican (save the defense stuff).  Second, the republican establishment would be helping the dems attack Paul if he won the nomination.  The globalists would stop at nothing to preserve their power.  The best way to get someone like Paul in the white house is to infiltrate one of the parties (preferrably the republican party), pretend that you're one of them and then flip on a dime as soon as you win the election.

[Zarn]

What folks need to understand about Paul's public perception is that he's the only one who's been contributing to it. No one - beyond a few swipes in the Republican presidential debate - bothers to attack him because he's irrelevant. So he's had free reign to define himself.

If under some twilight zone scenario he actually became the Republican nominee the Obama campaign and the entire Democratic establishment would spend nine months doing nothing but trying to destroy him. He'd quickly go from an anti-war, anti-establishment, smaller-government proponent to the nutcase who wants to make massive cuts to the defense budget, abolish social security and Medicare, repeal the Civil Rights Act, and who wouldn't've launched the operation to kill bin Laden.

First, dems will and do say that about any republican (save the defense stuff).  Second, the republican establishment would be helping the dems attack Paul if he won the nomination.  The globalists would stop at nothing to preserve their power.  The best way to get someone like Paul in the white house is to infiltrate one of the parties (preferrably the republican party), pretend that you're one of them and then flip on a dime as soon as you win the election.

Also need to avoid assassination...

Yes, there are many who want their power; however, there may be some who are honorable enough to help build Paul's image. I honestly think someone like DeMint would actually get Paul's back, should he win the nomination. As much as I don't like her, Palin would back him in a heartbeat. I cannot see Huntsman refusing to support him. Newt and Bachmann are starting to play copycat with him. Who cares what Giuliani thinks. He is going to get some endorsements.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Rasmussen is a highly unreliable polling firm that is skewed to favor the conservative viewpoint.  Palin's numbers here pretty much confirm that, since every other poll shows Obama dunking her.

But I will admit.  Of all the Republicans running in 2012, I'd prefer Paul.

[Nichlemn]

Most people who know a lot about Paul approve of him, whereas to the rest he's basically Generic R. However, many of the latter would defect once they found out about his views. Paul would probably do the worst of any Republican who has been polled.