Does the Debt Deal help or hurt Obama in 2012?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

It seems the hard left is infuriated......does that mean they'll stay away from the voting booth in 2012?  Maybe.

[Mr. Morden]

Compared to what?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Compared to what?

Well, people will take into account his leadership, or lack thereof, will they not?  I'm reading a lot of HE CAVED quotes from real muricans.   Do you not feel he had any fallout from the December Bush Tax Cuts cave?

These things add up.......so does this hurt or help?  Move this to Lunar's board if you don't want it here, btw.

[Mr. Morden]

Compared to what?

Well, people will take into account his leadership, or lack thereof, will they not?  I'm reading a lot of HE CAVED quotes from real muricans.   Do you not feel he had any fallout from the December Bush Tax Cuts cave?

These things add up.......so does this hurt or help.

No, I mean help or hurt compared to what scenario?  If you say something "helped" or "hurt", then you're asking about whether he's better off in the scenario where the deal happens vs. the scenario where the deal doesn't happen.  I'm asking what that latter scenario looks like.  Is he helped or hurt relative to a scenario where he gets a better deal, or helped or hurt relative to a scenario where there is no deal, and the US defaults?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Compared to what?

Well, people will take into account his leadership, or lack thereof, will they not?  I'm reading a lot of HE CAVED quotes from real muricans.   Do you not feel he had any fallout from the December Bush Tax Cuts cave?

These things add up.......so does this hurt or help.

No, I mean help or hurt compared to what scenario?  If you say something "helped" or "hurt", then you're asking about whether he's better off in the scenario where the deal happens vs. the scenario where the deal doesn't happen.  I'm asking what that latter scenario looks like.  Is he helped or hurt relative to a scenario where he gets a better deal, or helped or hurt relative to a scenario where there is no deal, and the US defaults?

I think the questions you pose, from a political standpoint, stand alone.  You're welcome to answer it anyway you want.  From your response, perhaps you think  he's helped by the fact a default didn't occur.  I say not necessarily true, people might be happy the default did NOT occur, and he could still suffer politically by supporting a deal that sucks for his party.

[J. J.]

Compared to what?

Well, people will take into account his leadership, or lack thereof, will they not?  I'm reading a lot of HE CAVED quotes from real muricans.   Do you not feel he had any fallout from the December Bush Tax Cuts cave?

These things add up.......so does this hurt or help?  Move this to Lunar's board if you don't want it here, btw.

If the credit ratings are lowered, this is an Obamanomics disaster.  Other than that, a minor loss because he looked weak through half of this.  (His initial position was actually good.)

If the economy improves, a minor plus.

[Paul Kemp]

No one will care about it over a year from now.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This whole episode has badly hurt Obama.  The guy is so amateurist.

Obama had a condescending attitude the whole time, telling the Tea Party to "Eat your peas!"...well, in the end, the Tea Party controlled the lunch menu and told Obama to "Eat sh*t!"

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I think Conyers' reaction might means he understands my question.  There can be negative consequences for signing a sh**t deal, along with negative consequences for not signing one. 

[krazen1211]

When has anyone cared about infuriating the hard left? It is more important to get this out of the news.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy is so amateurist.

So was your English teacher apparently.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The guy is so amateurist.

So was your English teacher apparently.

no, my Mr. Spell and Mrs. Grammar are just out of town giving another Plastic Corrosion Awareness seminar.

[Lief 🗽]

It'll hurt him. That was the point. Everything the Republicans do they do to make it harder for Obama to get re-elected. That's all they care about. How is it not obvious?

[memphis]

It'll hurt him. That was the point. Everything the Republicans do they do to make it harder for Obama to get re-elected. That's all they care about. How is it not obvious?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Obama needs a remdial class in negotiating. You don't start out with offering a fair compromise, especially when your opponent is as aggresive and ugly as the GOP has been lately. He should have said a clean debt hike or nothing from the outset.

[nhmagic]

Obama looked like a two year old when he went on national television to deliver a partisan attack on republicans.  The big sticking point in his speech was "It's not fair!".  Regardless of what ideology you maintain, he looked like a little kid screaming about not getting cookies.

I think people watch that behavior and legitimately say to themselves: This is a leader?

The fact is that Obama never wanted a deal.  Rather he wanted the republicans to fold.  There were secret talks with Boehner and Reid, but Obama never put a plan down on paper for the people and their representatives to debate.  Then he got out and played the disingenuous Mediscare game.  He let Boehner pass not one, but two bills before Reid even got the democrats plan out the gate.  If he wanted to have a compromise he should have taken a risk and put something out there.  Of course, he didn't want a compromise.  You have to have something of your own to be able to compromise.  He wanted his way. 

[Bull Moose Base]

The effect in 2012 will depend on what upshot of Super Congress is and where it leaves the debate heading into the thick of the presidential, and mostly on what happens with the economy and how it helps frame the debate on that.  Obama has argued it makes it easier to push for more jobs bills.  Unlikely the Republicans will make it easier but it may help Obama frame the debate more favorably to himself.

In the short-term, liberal anger at Obama will probably drop his Gallup # into 30s.  But I'm skeptical that will have as much relevance a year plus from now. 

[Torie]

Marginally hurt I would think for process reasons. Obama is perceived as somewhat AWOL and disengaged from the budget process with his lack of a plan and all, and rather ineffective political posturing, and I suspect that will undermine him with critical swing voters.

[Paul Kemp]

Marginally hurt I would think for process reasons. Obama is perceived as somewhat AWOL and disengaged from the budget process with his lack of a plan and all, and rather ineffective political posturing, and I suspect that will undermine him with critical swing voters.

"Critical swing voters" aren't going to care what he did in August 2011. They're going to care about October 2012.

Anyone that thinks this whole ordeal will have some major effect on the election is kidding themselves. Will the results of this debt deal affect the election? It's possible but the struggle to get here will be completely forgotten by the voting public by then.

[Bull Moose Base]

Marginally hurt I would think for process reasons. Obama is perceived as somewhat AWOL and disengaged from the budget process with his lack of a plan and all, and rather ineffective political posturing, and I suspect that will undermine him with critical swing voters.

"Critical swing voters" aren't going to care what he did in August 2011. They're going to care about October 2012.

Anyone that thinks this whole ordeal will have some major effect on the election is kidding themselves. Will the results of this debt deal affect the election? It's possible but the struggle to get here will be completely forgotten by the voting public by then.

You're optimistic if you think voters will remember October 2012 by November 2012.

[Paul Kemp]

Marginally hurt I would think for process reasons. Obama is perceived as somewhat AWOL and disengaged from the budget process with his lack of a plan and all, and rather ineffective political posturing, and I suspect that will undermine him with critical swing voters.

"Critical swing voters" aren't going to care what he did in August 2011. They're going to care about October 2012.

Anyone that thinks this whole ordeal will have some major effect on the election is kidding themselves. Will the results of this debt deal affect the election? It's possible but the struggle to get here will be completely forgotten by the voting public by then.

You're optimistic if you think voters will remember October 2012 by November 2012.

heh I was giving them the benefit of the doubt on that one.

Either way, American politics is a "what have you done for me lately?" business.

[anvi]

I tend to agree with Joementum in that we don't know yet; wither the deal hurts or helps Obama in 2012 will depend on how the rest of the process plays out; it looks bad now, but it still could turn out well for him given the process the deal lays out. 

I tend to think the election will be mostly about unemployment and economic recovery.  But I do agree that the turnout rate of the left may very well be the most decisive factor.  If the GOP nominates a recognizable human being, independents lean slightly right and the left is apathetic, Obama will lose.  Still a lot of "if"s in there, and nobody can tell the future, so we don't know yet.

[exopolitician]

I don't think it has an effect either way. I'm more concerned about how he is going to push any jobs legislation through Congress, which at least now finally we can focus on it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yep, it's too soon to determine the impact on Obama next November.

However, my personal view is that the real losers in the long-term will be the Tea Party.

They will try to claim this as some kind of victory re: spending cuts and no increased taxation... but I think the fact that they were sidelined and made pretty impotent could have one of two end results

a) the TP goes all 'Single White Female' on the establishment GOP and threatens to primary every one - they overplay their hand and become an best an irrelevancy and at worst (read: best for me) a joke.

b) the TP caucus starts to dissolve and a few hardcore members remain - and their political force diminishes with it.

[King]

About as much as Bin Whathisname.

[Bacon King]

It seems the hard left is infuriated......does that mean they'll stay away from the voting booth in 2012?  Maybe.

Of course not. No matter how badly Obama plays Moderate Hero and irritates the left, they'll still all come around and support him when they realize it's either him or [insert conservative Republican here]; everybody still remembers 2000.