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Author Topic: PA-Quinnipiac: Romney leads a weak Obama, Santorum barely trails  (Read 1733 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 02, 2011, 05:14:51 am »

The protracted slugfest over raising the national debt limit leaves President Barack Obama with a 54 - 43 percent disapproval among Pennsylvania voters, but he scores better than Republicans or Democrats in Congress, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected. Matching the president against possible Republican challengers shows:

44% Romney
42% Obama

45% Obama
43% Santorum

47% Obama
39% Bachmann

45% Obama
39% Perry

A June 15 Quinnipiac University survey showed Obama topping Romney 47 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania and leading Santorum 49 - 38 percent.

From July 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,358 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 532 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1630

Obama vs. Romney

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2011, 05:24:14 am »

Obama and Romney each get 39% among Independents and Romney is doing only slightly better with Republicans than Obama with Democrats.

So this means that the sample must be very even between Democrats and Republicans.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2011, 05:27:28 am »
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Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2011, 09:27:06 am »
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Look at those Santorum numbers, my friends.  Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2011, 09:31:35 am »
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Look at those Santorum numbers, my friends.  Smiley

Yeah, he's losing in his home state.  Whoop...
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2011, 09:33:07 am »
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Look at those Santorum numbers, my friends.  Smiley

Yeah, he's losing in his home state.  Whoop...

Just barely  Wink
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2011, 10:26:15 am »

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2011, 10:30:20 am »
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Another showing for Republican candidates that shows them at the floor of their party's vote. The poll has Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2011, 10:47:58 am »

I think the NV numbers from PPP today or tomorrow won't be nice either ...
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2011, 11:05:50 am »
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Well it certainly put the Obama landslide 300 electoral vote victory out of the question. Obama isn't gonna win more than 280. I expect him to win PA, but it is gonna be close either way.
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2011, 11:17:17 am »
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This forces me to change PA from lean Dem to toss up. However with the nasty debate out of the way I suspect that O is going to reach basement numbers for a little bit in some states. If the ceiling was the excuse of not having new jobs these numbers will change.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2011, 11:35:43 am »
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Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.

Certainly not? Please stop commenting on politics. Thanks.
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2011, 11:44:12 am »

PA is probably still trending a bit away from Obama and closer to voting like the nation.

I wouldn't be surprised if Virginia had a slightly bigger margin for Obama than PA has.
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« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2011, 11:51:20 am »
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And Obama still wins the EC on your map when you give him the safe D gray states (VT, NY, CT, MD, DE, DC, IL, and HI)
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« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2011, 12:04:19 pm »
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Look at those Santorum numbers, my friends.  Smiley

Congrats Phil.
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« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2011, 12:42:50 pm »
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Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Bachmann






Obama vs. Palin



Obama vs. Perry




Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons




DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Christie -- New Jersey
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled) 
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)
Huntsman -- Utah (but I show him in Idaho)
Roemer -- Louisiana

...Budget squabbles are messy, especially when politics are polarized and times are hard. They make nobody look good.

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama

Pennsylvania really can't be more R than it was in 2010, can it?
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« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2011, 01:01:40 pm »
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Could Obama be so unpopular in PA that even someone like Rick Santorum is within the margin of error? If so, that doesn't bode well for his reelection prospects. Seeing the Democrats try to do electoral math without PA would be interesting.
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« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2011, 01:26:06 pm »
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Could Obama be so unpopular in PA that even someone like Rick Santorum is within the margin of error? If so, that doesn't bode well for his reelection prospects. Seeing the Democrats try to do electoral math without PA would be interesting.

Budgetary squabble with Congress? Santorum gets to stay on the sideline and make cheap shots.

One bit of electoral math is interesting. If D-voting Pennsylvanians are moving to such states as Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia then that could reduce the net Democratic vote overall. PPP did studies of baseball loyalties in North Carolina and Virginia and found lots of Phillies fans. Most of those are from southeastern Pennsylvania.  
« Last Edit: August 02, 2011, 03:43:37 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2011, 01:42:01 pm »

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama

Pennsylvania really can't be more R than it was in 2010, can it?

Interestingly, 2010 wasn't the most unfavorable exit poll sample:

2010: 40% DEM, 37% GOP
2008: 44% DEM, 37% GOP
2006: 43% DEM, 38% GOP
2004: 41% DEM, 39% GOP
2000: 40% DEM, 40% GOP
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« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2011, 04:07:24 pm »
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Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.

Certainly not? Please stop commenting on politics. Thanks.

I think that's more advice you need to take yourself, my post wasn't even addressing you.
 
If Allegheny County didn't vote for Bush in 2004, which is the best Republican showing in the state since 1988, it's not flipping in 2012. Reagan and Bush 42 didn't win it, not even Nixon won it. It's not like it's an off the wall prediction. So please, be quiet.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2011, 04:10:22 pm by DrScholl »Logged
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« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2011, 04:18:31 pm »
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Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.

Certainly not? Please stop commenting on politics. Thanks.

I think that's more advice you need to take yourself, my post wasn't even addressing you.
 
If Allegheny County didn't vote for Bush in 2004, which is the best Republican showing in the state since 1988, it's not flipping in 2012. Reagan and Bush 42 didn't win it, not even Nixon won it. It's not like it's an off the wall prediction. So please, be quiet.

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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2011, 04:28:10 pm »
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Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.

Certainly not? Please stop commenting on politics. Thanks.

I think that's more advice you need to take yourself, my post wasn't even addressing you.
 
If Allegheny County didn't vote for Bush in 2004, which is the best Republican showing in the state since 1988, it's not flipping in 2012. Reagan and Bush 42 didn't win it, not even Nixon won it. It's not like it's an off the wall prediction. So please, be quiet.



I looked it up, my mistake, he didn't win it 1968, though. That was a win in a landslide, which kind of makes the point that Republican won't win it in 2012 even more clear, since a nearly 50 state landslide isn't in the cards for anyone on the ballot.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2011, 04:31:03 pm by DrScholl »Logged
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2011, 04:51:14 pm »
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Alright, point taken. I was just rebutting the claim that not even Nixon won it.
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2011, 05:01:56 pm »
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Romney winning Allegheny County, which would certainly not happen.

Certainly not? Please stop commenting on politics. Thanks.

I think that's more advice you need to take yourself, my post wasn't even addressing you.

This is a political discussion forum. Your point was made. It doesn't have to be made to me for me to respond.
 
Quote
If Allegheny County didn't vote for Bush in 2004, which is the best Republican showing in the state since 1988, it's not flipping in 2012. Reagan and Bush 42 didn't win it, not even Nixon won it. It's not like it's an off the wall prediction. So please, be quiet.

Maybe you haven't noticed but we have an incumbent President that isn't popular at all in this state and a bad economy. The fact that Bush didn't win it in 2004 has absolutely nothing to do with 2012 since the economy didn't suck in 2004.

You have proven yourself to be one of the biggest jackasses around here.
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« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2011, 05:07:30 pm »
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Maybe you haven't noticed but we have an incumbent President that isn't popular at all in this state and a bad economy. The fact that Bush didn't win it in 2004 has absolutely nothing to do with 2012 since the economy didn't suck in 2004.

You have proven yourself to be one of the biggest jackasses around here.

What is with the name calling? You are getting angry over absolutely nothing. If any of the Republicans win Pennsylvania, Allegheny County still wouldn't be in the column, even Carter carried it when he was defeated as an unpopular incumbent. I guess it's ridiculous to say Philadelphia County won't flip either.
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