PA-Quinnipiac: Romney leads a weak Obama, Santorum barely trails

[Tender Branson]

The protracted slugfest over raising the national debt limit leaves President Barack Obama with a 54 - 43 percent disapproval among Pennsylvania voters, but he scores better than Republicans or Democrats in Congress, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected. Matching the president against possible Republican challengers shows:

44% Romney
42% Obama

45% Obama
43% Santorum

47% Obama
39% Bachmann

45% Obama
39% Perry

A June 15 Quinnipiac University survey showed Obama topping Romney 47 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania and leading Santorum 49 - 38 percent.

From July 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,358 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 532 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1630

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

Obama and Romney each get 39% among Independents and Romney is doing only slightly better with Republicans than Obama with Democrats.

So this means that the sample must be very even between Democrats and Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama

[Tender Branson]

I think the NV numbers from PPP today or tomorrow won't be nice either ...

[Tender Branson]

PA is probably still trending a bit away from Obama and closer to voting like the nation.

I wouldn't be surprised if Virginia had a slightly bigger margin for Obama than PA has.

[Tender Branson]

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama

Pennsylvania really can't be more R than it was in 2010, can it?

Interestingly, 2010 wasn't the most unfavorable exit poll sample:

2010: 40% DEM, 37% GOP
2008: 44% DEM, 37% GOP
2006: 43% DEM, 38% GOP
2004: 41% DEM, 39% GOP
2000: 40% DEM, 40% GOP