PA-Quinnipiac: Romney leads a weak Obama, Santorum barely trails

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Christie -- New Jersey
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled) 
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)
Huntsman -- Utah (but I show him in Idaho)
Roemer -- Louisiana

...Budget squabbles are messy, especially when politics are polarized and times are hard. They make nobody look good.

Wow. The change from June is pretty remarkable.

Well, I know it doesn't matter really, but adjusted to 2010 exit poll data it is:

44.0% Obama
43.6% Romney

2008 exit poll:

45.6% Obama
42.4% Romney

2006 exit poll:

44.9% Obama
43.2% Romney

2004 exit poll:

44.2% Romney
43.7% Obama

2000 exit poll:

45.0% Romney
43.0% Obama

Pennsylvania really can't be more R than it was in 2010, can it?

[pbrower2a]

Could Obama be so unpopular in PA that even someone like Rick Santorum is within the margin of error? If so, that doesn't bode well for his reelection prospects. Seeing the Democrats try to do electoral math without PA would be interesting.

Budgetary squabble with Congress? Santorum gets to stay on the sideline and make cheap shots.

One bit of electoral math is interesting. If D-voting Pennsylvanians are moving to such states as Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia then that could reduce the net Democratic vote overall. PPP did studies of baseball loyalties in North Carolina and Virginia and found lots of Phillies fans. Most of those are from southeastern Pennsylvania.  

[pbrower2a]

The economy is better now than 2004? Good lord.

We had illusory prosperity in 2004 -- and we have no illusion of how bad tings are now. The economic mess that we now have has its cause in bad economic behavior gong on through 2004.

[pbrower2a]

Obama ignoring liberal's advice on the economy has sure worked out well for him.

Reactionaries own the money and the political process.

[pbrower2a]

Regardless of the basis for the economic conditions or how unstable they were, the fact remains that conditions were far better in 2004 then they are now. The disconnect in this thread is a result of what caused those economic conditions being considered along with the conditions. Most people don't do that and while it is preferable to seek a more solid footing so that it lasts, most would pick any environment with 5% unemployment and $2.75 gas to what we have now.

A man having a job and earning a paycheck in 2004, isn't an illusion to him. He loses it, in say 2008 or 2009, he votes for Obama because that idiot Bush cost him his job and thinks getting someone new will lead to him getting his job back. Three years later, the guy has exhausted his unemployment, the savings are gone, prices are higher and he is no closer to a new job. I am sure you can find that story all across the Keystone state. When asking the question regarding which year was better, almost always, the primary considerations are unemployment and inflation (And don't I don't mean that worthless number people focus on to say it's zero and claim anyone who says otherwise is stupid. With no one buying houses, cars, or furniture/appliances, of course it's zero. I mean food and fuel, which is far more important in my opinion).

People associate the housing bubble with creating the economic downturn, but I am not sure most associate it with the economic growth proceeding that downturn. Not to the extent that it was truly responsible for that growth.

Such economic growth around 2004 was either the housing bubble (now irreplicable and irresponsible  or the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq  (ditto). Maybe the Republicans can offer jobs -- but jobs that lack something that usually goes with them, like pay -- and jobs created by pay cuts to the people who still have them and whose fruit goes entirely to the Ruling Elite of America.