Who will the next Republican President be?

[CT27]

I think Obama will win reelection in 2012 (albeit by a lesser margin than 2008).

Who do you think the next Republican to occupy the White House will be?

I think the GOP could win back the Presidency in 2016.  A lot of forums I've been to seem to think it will be Jindal.  Any other Republicans that could realistically win in 2016?

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry 2016!]

Probably Romney 2012

[justW353]

I'm not sure if anyone can really beat Obama in 2012...it comes down to how the economy develops in the coming months.

If it's 2012, it's gonna be Romney.

In 2016, I could see Huntsman, Thune, Scott Brown, Marco Rubio...there's a lot of potential Presidents waiting in the wings for the Republicans.

[Rollback]

If we win in 2012, the most likely choice is Romney.

If we wait until 2016, we'll get Chris Christie.

That's actually a tough choice isn't it?

[NHI]

Romney if he wins the nomination.
Christie/Rubio if Obama is reelected in 2012.

[Odysseus]

Rick Perry in an extremely close election in 2016, or alternatively, maybe Scott Brown or Marco Rubio in 2020 in a fairly GOP-friendly election.

[CT27]

Many have speculated Marco Rubio as a future President, since I don't know much about him could someone please tell me what would make him special or why his name comes up a lot?

[The Ex-Factor]

He's Hispanic, he's dreamy, and he's from Florida.

[justW353]

He's Hispanic, he's dreamy, and he's from Florida.

[ChairmanSanchez]

2012--Romney
2016--Jindall or Rubio
2020--Rand Paul, Allen West, Mike Lee

[AUH2O Libertarian]

I think Obama will squeak by Romney, largely due to GOP apathy in states like Virginia, NC, and possibly Georgia.

With the GOP having nominated four straight fiscal moderates (Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney), I think 2016 will probably finally be the year a hardcore fiscal con/libertarianish candidate gets the nomination. Right now I see Christie and Rand Paul as basically tied for the frontrunner status.  Both are loved by the majority of the GOP base and I don't see either of them "moderating" their positions anytime soon.  Jim DeMint could probably walk to the nomination (now or in 2016) if he really wanted it, but I just don't think he has his heart set on being President.

People who think the GOP will begin to moderate and go with someone like Huntsman or Thune are either deluding themselves, or are out of touch with typical GOP primary voters.  This is especially true if Obama wins a second term and the economy continues to stagnate.

And after the Bush years, I see the GOP currently running away from a hawkish foreign policy as fast as possible.  They won't denounce Iraq or Afghanistan simply because Bush started it, but any new situation that arises from Libya onwards will probably have the GOP sliding to the non-interventionist side.  That doesn't bode well for neocons like Rubio who would otherwise be solid prospects.

Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I see the neocon and evangelical influence in the GOP sliding for the foreseeable future while economic liberalism (and I mean this in the classical sense of the word) is accelerating in importance among GOPers.  Bush's TARP bailout was what triggered all this movement.

Mike Lee and Rand Paul type conservatives seem to be much better positioned to capitalize on the future direction of the party.  (And I will do everything I can to push it that way ) And public union bashing won't be going out of style anytime soon.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He's Hispanic, he's dreamy, and he's from Florida.

But he's also an idiot.

[CT27]

Any realistic chance Scott Brown could be the VP pick in 2016 or 2020?

[CT27]

Also, has Jindal expressed any desire for the Presidency?

[Governor Scott]

Dale Schultz.

[NCeriale]

(1) Romney: beats President Obama
(2) Rubio:  Romney loses and picks Rubio as VP, then I see Rubio winning the open election.
(3) Christie: (a) Romney picks Christie and Loses, Christie Rubio dispatches whichever Dem in 2016; (b) Romney picks Bachmann and loses, God help us, but I think she loses in 2016. Then Christie-Rubio unseats the unlikely President Cuomo or O'Malley in 2020.

--I hope Perrydoesn't factor into this, you can interchange him with Bachmann though,
--If Obama wins in 12, unless Bachmann or Palin is the '16 frontrunner, I'd hate to run in '16 as Cuomo or O'Malley. History is double triple stacked against you.

[cavalcade]

Romney 2012 and Perry 2012 are somewhat likely.  If Romney loses, primary or general, he is done.  If Perry loses general, he is done.  If Perry loses primary and Romney loses general, Perry has a small chance in 2016.

No mention of Huckabee 2016?  Isn't he the frontrunner for the nomination if Obama gets re-elected?

Huntsman hasn't impressed, but a 2016 primary wouldn't have Romney so he'd be the favorite in NH.  He'd also probably be the best known moderate in a field that could include Huckabee, Perry, Rubio, and Thune.

Christie would have to win re-election (unlikely, right?) or choose not to run (which could make him look weak).

I don't see what Rubio's appeal is other than he is a conservative minority, and that hasn't been enough for Cain.  If he does become President, it'll probably be after being VP.

Thune is a possibility.

If Scott Brown is re-elected to the Senate in Massachusetts in a general election year when the Democratic candidate wins the Presidency, and then wins a Republican presidential primary nomination four years later, he will go down in history as the greatest politician of all time.

Daniels deserves to be mentioned, but I have no idea if he would even do it.

Then there is the group of McDonnell/Cantor/people elected in 2010, 2012, or even later that we don't know about yet.


In all I'd say, roughly:

Romney 25% chance of being next R President
Perry 20%
Huckabee 15%
Huntsman 8%
Christie 7%
Rubio 5%
Thune 5%
Field/None 15%

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Ron Paul 2012

If Obama wins 2012- Palin, Rubio, Mike Pence or Ran Paul in 2016
If Dem in 2016- Pence or Rubio in 2020

[CT27]

A Rubio/Daniels (in whatever order) for 2016 perhaps?