Why Nevada won't vote for the Republican in 2012

[Tender Branson]

There is some big demographic change going on in Nevada and it doesn't help the Republicans at all.

Here are the breakdowns by race in the 2010, 2000 and 1990 census:

2010:

54% White
27% Latino
  8% Black
  7% Asian
  4% Others

2000:

65% White
20% Latino
  7% Black
  5% Asian
  3% Others

1990:

79% White
10% Latino
  6% Black
  3% Asian
  2% Others

...

FYI:

Latinos only made up 15% of the Exit Poll in 2008. Expect them to make up about 20% in 2012.

...

Also please take a look at how Clark County voted in the last 28 years:

2008: 58.5% DEM
2004: 51.7% DEM
2000: 51.3% DEM
1996: 48.7% DEM
1992: 41.2% DEM
1988: 40.9% DEM
1984: 35.5% DEM
1980: 30.1% DEM

If trends continue, I don't see how Obama loses Nevada next year. What do you think ?

[greenforest32]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

[ZuWo]

Assuming Latinos continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, that's not a good trendline for the Republicans. But couldn't the growth in the Latino population be counterbalanced by the trend that whites are becoming increasingly Republican? Hasn't there been a recent poll which asserted such a trend?

[Tender Branson]

Assuming Latinos continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, that's not a good trendline for the Republicans. But couldn't the growth in the Latino population be counterbalanced by the trend that whites are becoming increasingly Republican? Hasn't there been a recent poll which asserted such a trend?

In Nevada, this trend is not so strong.

In the last PPP poll, Romney leads Obama 54-40 among Whites. McCain won NV Whites by 55-45. And Romney does much better than the other Republicans among Whites.

[Nichlemn]

FYI:

Latinos only made up 15% of the Exit Poll in 2008. Expect them to make up about 20% in 2012.

Do you expect turnout to significantly increase among Hispanics? Because population growth alone wouldn't create that.


 

[Mechaman]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

Yeah, because the Republicans suffered legendary losses last year in the midterm elections.......

Not that midterms have anything to do with presidential elections, but that this whole "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD!" spiel is lolarious.

[greenforest32]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

Yeah, because the Republicans suffered legendary losses last year in the midterm elections.......

Not that midterms have anything to do with presidential elections, but that this whole "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD!" spiel is lolarious.

They did suffer major losses in California: Democrats won every statewide office, held all their federal senate/house seats AND picked up a few seats in the state legislature. The California GOP is a superminority. Do you deny it?

[HST1948]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

Yeah, because the Republicans suffered legendary losses last year in the midterm elections.......

Not that midterms have anything to do with presidential elections, but that this whole "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD!" spiel is lolarious.

I certainly think that Nevada can be competitive next year with Mitt Romney on the top of the ticket. That said, if it hadn't been for these demographic changes Harry Reid would have never won last year (even with his nutcase opponent).

[Tender Branson]

FYI:

Latinos only made up 15% of the Exit Poll in 2008. Expect them to make up about 20% in 2012.

Do you expect turnout to significantly increase among Hispanics? Because population growth alone wouldn't create that.

I´ve compared it with 2004 exit poll data, in which only 10% said they were Latino.

The more Hispanics who immigrated in the 90s and from 2000-2012 apply for US citizenship, the more Hispanics will make up for in the Exit Poll.

What is the requirement again ? You have to live legally in the US for 10 years before you can apply for US citizenship ? Besides there are always a lot of illegal Hispanics in Nevada, so Hispanics will never vote according to their population share.

[Mechaman]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

Yeah, because the Republicans suffered legendary losses last year in the midterm elections.......

Not that midterms have anything to do with presidential elections, but that this whole "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD!" spiel is lolarious.

I certainly think that Nevada can be competitive next year with Mitt Romney on the top of the ticket. That said, if it hadn't been for these demographic changes Harry Reid would have never won last year (even with his nutcase opponent).

Granted.
I thought that greenforest was kind of implying that the GOP was dead nation wide.  On second look he's obviously referring to California and other states.  Again, assuming anything for granted is foolishness.  After all who thought in 1936 that Vermont would ever vote Democratic?
Plus, such posts tend to neglect that parties can evolve.  The GOP will inevitably change to accomodate a changing demographic.  It doesn't seem so now but take in mind the political history of the GOP.  Just a century ago Irish American Catholics were almost as Democratic as black people are now days.  Now days.........they are usually 50/50 on election day.
I for one tend to look down on such posturing (the "we are invincible!!!!" kind) that ignores the nature of the American electorate.
As for Nevada, I agree.  It'll likely vote Dem in 2012.  Whether or not Obama wins or loses.

Just an observation.

[HST1948]

I agree with your assessment. Nevada is going to become more like California than places where Dems are currently having trouble (Midwest). Same for Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Demographics are going to destroy the Republican party. Hopefully we hold the WH in 2012, but even if we don't Republicans going to lose again and again in 2016 and onwards. I'm pleased with this development.

Yeah, because the Republicans suffered legendary losses last year in the midterm elections.......

Not that midterms have anything to do with presidential elections, but that this whole "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD!" spiel is lolarious.

I certainly think that Nevada can be competitive next year with Mitt Romney on the top of the ticket. That said, if it hadn't been for these demographic changes Harry Reid would have never won last year (even with his nutcase opponent).

Granted.
I thought that greenforest was kind of implying that the GOP was dead nation wide.  On second look he's obviously referring to California and other states.  Again, assuming anything for granted is foolishness.  After all who thought in 1936 that Vermont would ever vote Democratic?
Plus, such posts tend to neglect that parties can evolve.  The GOP will inevitably change to accomodate a changing demographic.  It doesn't seem so now but take in mind the political history of the GOP.  Just a century ago Irish American Catholics were almost as Democratic as black people are now days.  Now days.........they are usually 50/50 on election day.
I for one tend to look down on such posturing (the "we are invincible!!!!" kind) that ignores the nature of the American electorate.
As for Nevada, I agree.  I'll likely vote Dem in 2012.  Whether or not Obama wins or loses.

Just an observation.

Very true, I see Hispanics following the voting trend that most other Catholic immigrant groups have throughout history: at first voting heavily Democratic and then as time wears on the begin to vote more like the nation as a whole. (It's actually a very interesting thing really, I have noticed it in my family.  My grandfather is a Catholic immigrant from Poland and almost always votes Democratic, yet my father and aunt who were born in the United States almost always votes republican.)