Why Nevada won't vote for the Republican in 2012

[Tender Branson]

There is some big demographic change going on in Nevada and it doesn't help the Republicans at all.

Here are the breakdowns by race in the 2010, 2000 and 1990 census:

2010:

54% White
27% Latino
  8% Black
  7% Asian
  4% Others

2000:

65% White
20% Latino
  7% Black
  5% Asian
  3% Others

1990:

79% White
10% Latino
  6% Black
  3% Asian
  2% Others

...

FYI:

Latinos only made up 15% of the Exit Poll in 2008. Expect them to make up about 20% in 2012.

...

Also please take a look at how Clark County voted in the last 28 years:

2008: 58.5% DEM
2004: 51.7% DEM
2000: 51.3% DEM
1996: 48.7% DEM
1992: 41.2% DEM
1988: 40.9% DEM
1984: 35.5% DEM
1980: 30.1% DEM

If trends continue, I don't see how Obama loses Nevada next year. What do you think ?

[Tender Branson]

Assuming Latinos continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, that's not a good trendline for the Republicans. But couldn't the growth in the Latino population be counterbalanced by the trend that whites are becoming increasingly Republican? Hasn't there been a recent poll which asserted such a trend?

In Nevada, this trend is not so strong.

In the last PPP poll, Romney leads Obama 54-40 among Whites. McCain won NV Whites by 55-45. And Romney does much better than the other Republicans among Whites.

[Tender Branson]

FYI:

Latinos only made up 15% of the Exit Poll in 2008. Expect them to make up about 20% in 2012.

Do you expect turnout to significantly increase among Hispanics? Because population growth alone wouldn't create that.

I´ve compared it with 2004 exit poll data, in which only 10% said they were Latino.

The more Hispanics who immigrated in the 90s and from 2000-2012 apply for US citizenship, the more Hispanics will make up for in the Exit Poll.

What is the requirement again ? You have to live legally in the US for 10 years before you can apply for US citizenship ? Besides there are always a lot of illegal Hispanics in Nevada, so Hispanics will never vote according to their population share.