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| | |-+  NY-09 Sienna college: Weprin up 48-42
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Author Topic: NY-09 Sienna college: Weprin up 48-42  (Read 1443 times)
danny
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« on: August 10, 2011, 09:43:11 am »
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PDF link.

Looks like this will be a competitive election.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2011, 09:52:14 am »
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Moved from the 2012 House polls to here, because the election takes place next month.
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2011, 09:57:29 am »
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Some funny crosstabs there. It may be closer than usual, but I don't see Republicans coming too close to taking this seat.
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2011, 10:35:06 am »
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Any reason why Weprin would only be carrying Democrats 2:1?
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danny
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2011, 10:52:46 am »
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Any reason why Weprin would only be carrying Democrats 2:1?

Even though Democrats have a huge 61%-17% lead in registered voters the district only voted 54% for Obama (and apparently disapproves of him by a 52-45 margin) so this district clearly has a lot of conservative democrats/Dinos.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2011, 11:02:09 am »
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Any reason why Weprin would only be carrying Democrats 2:1?
The orthodox Jews are quite prevalent here, and even though they are registered as Democrats generally, they are quite conservative on national security and social issues, so many voted for McCain and could vote for Turner, although Weprin leads among Jews overall by 21 points.
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2011, 10:11:36 am »
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my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2011, 10:50:53 am »
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my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2011, 11:57:01 am »
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Safe D.  Dem +6 is just Weiner disgust, margin will probably be +15.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2011, 08:42:57 pm »
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Any reason why Weprin would only be carrying Democrats 2:1?

Because this district is all Democratic although it might not vote that way -- like Kentucky but older and more Jewish
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2011, 08:43:50 pm »
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Safe D.  Dem +6 is just Weiner disgust, margin will probably be +15.

And I'm a pumpkin -- just because I say it, doesn't make it so. If the final results are +15 absent a major development, I'll declare you to be a genius of unparalleled portions. It's not gonna happen though

What do I know? I only talk to the campaigns
« Last Edit: August 13, 2011, 08:48:32 pm by Lunar »Logged

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Meeker
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2011, 08:46:01 pm »
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Isn't 42% about what they got last year? It seems to me getting that next 8% is the challenge.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2011, 08:49:00 pm »
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Isn't 42% about what they got last year? It seems to me getting that next 8% is the challenge.

Turner got 39% in 2010, but he usually claims he got 41%
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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2011, 08:51:59 pm »
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Isn't 42% about what they got last year? It seems to me getting that next 8% is the challenge.

btw -- he doesn't have to make up 8% --  it's a) a turnout game, and b) standard polling practice might not be able to reach Russian and Orthodox Jewish voters as well as it should, so it's possible that it's something closer to 5%, which in a special election, isn't that much.
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2011, 08:58:44 pm »
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So what do you think the margin will be?
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2011, 09:00:57 pm »
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So what do you think the margin will be?

I decline to predict just yet Smiley  -- it'll be in the single digits though
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2011, 04:15:18 am »
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It would be awesome if a Republican won and there was a bipartisan deal to eliminate this district and Hochul's.
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2011, 04:22:47 am »
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It would be awesome if a Republican won and there was a bipartisan deal to eliminate this district and Hochul's.

It seems likely that would be the case since they would have the least seniority in the delegation. Buerkle really lucked out since she would have probably had her district axed had Lee's scandal not broken out. It's too bad that Hochul will probably lose her district since she is one of the few democrats in Congress I actually like.
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2011, 05:10:20 am »
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Too early to call the margin but Weprin will win.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2011, 03:30:15 pm »
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http://www.politickerny.com/2011/08/29/turner-hits-weprin-for-not-knowing-the-size-of-the-federal-deficit/

Daily News: “Right now, how big is the debt?”

Weprin: (Pause) “Trillions.”

News: “But how many?”

Weprin: “About 4 trillion.”



I guess Weprin only started counting after Obama took office.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2011, 03:51:21 pm »
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http://www.politickerny.com/2011/08/29/turner-hits-weprin-for-not-knowing-the-size-of-the-federal-deficit/

Daily News: “Right now, how big is the debt?”

Weprin: (Pause) “Trillions.”

News: “But how many?”

Weprin: “About 4 trillion.”



I guess Weprin only started counting after Obama took office.

Amusingly, the link and story says "deficit" but the actual question is re: "debt".
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2011, 03:53:23 pm »
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http://www.politickerny.com/2011/08/29/turner-hits-weprin-for-not-knowing-the-size-of-the-federal-deficit/

Daily News: “Right now, how big is the debt?”

Weprin: (Pause) “Trillions.”

News: “But how many?”

Weprin: “About 4 trillion.”



I guess Weprin only started counting after Obama took office.

I have this feeling that Turner would have no clue about the size of the debt as well. Weprin is still a fool for not knowing though.
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Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
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