NY-09 Sienna college: Weprin up 48-42

[Lunar]

Any reason why Weprin would only be carrying Democrats 2:1?

Because this district is all Democratic although it might not vote that way -- like Kentucky but older and more Jewish

[Lunar]

Safe D.  Dem +6 is just Weiner disgust, margin will probably be +15.

And I'm a pumpkin -- just because I say it, doesn't make it so. If the final results are +15 absent a major development, I'll declare you to be a genius of unparalleled portions. It's not gonna happen though

What do I know? I only talk to the campaigns

[Lunar]

Isn't 42% about what they got last year? It seems to me getting that next 8% is the challenge.

Turner got 39% in 2010, but he usually claims he got 41%

[Lunar]

Isn't 42% about what they got last year? It seems to me getting that next 8% is the challenge.

btw -- he doesn't have to make up 8% --  it's a) a turnout game, and b) standard polling practice might not be able to reach Russian and Orthodox Jewish voters as well as it should, so it's possible that it's something closer to 5%, which in a special election, isn't that much.

[Lunar]

So what do you think the margin will be?

I decline to predict just yet   -- it'll be in the single digits though