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| | |-+  The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 39441 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #650 on: October 06, 2014, 05:24:27 pm »
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Interestingly, RCP now has Obama at his highest approval since early June. Is it due to the economic news, ISIS events, or both?
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« Reply #651 on: October 14, 2014, 09:26:13 am »
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Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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« Reply #652 on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:25 am »
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Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But the Democrats running for the Senate and House cannot well exploit this fact. The Congressional ballot is dead even, which at best ensures practically ensures no change in the House 

Even if I am excessively partisan to make an objective statement, the President needs some genuine support on foreign policy -- support not tied to a willingness to concede  on all else to Senate and House Republicans to be able to execute an effective foreign policy.

In view of the behavior of Congressional and Senate Republicans, I have no cause to believe that the Republicans will not make a military victory over ISIS contingent upon accepting the transformation of America into a pure plutocracy. Yes, we have a war on our hands, with an enemy that America must defeat.

Barack Obama is not Dubya. He is cautious; he is meticulously honest. He may not relish war, but neither did Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR. Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR won the wars that they did not want.   


 
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« Reply #653 on: October 15, 2014, 07:23:26 pm »
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Obama's approval ratings have now sunk to 40%, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
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« Reply #654 on: October 19, 2014, 06:16:56 pm »
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Obama's approval ratings have now sunk to 40%, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.

I don't think "sunk" is the right word. It's not like he hasn't been there lately.
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« Reply #655 on: October 23, 2014, 09:22:41 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
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« Reply #656 on: October 24, 2014, 10:22:45 am »
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“The Georgia electorate appears to be the most pro-Obama group of likely voters in the 11 states CNN has surveyed this fall,” [CNN Director Keating]Holland said. “That’s not saying much — Obama’s approval rating among Georgia likely voters is only 44%. But that’s still better than the high-30s he gets in states like Iowa and new Hampshire, not to mention the low 30s in Kansas and Alaska.”

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/24/politics/cnn-poll-georgia/index.html

Despite it falling dramatically in almost all battleground states and most others as well, Obama's approval rating remains virtually untouched in Georgia, of all places. Thanks, growing black electorate! If Georgia weren't so inelastic, I bet Obama would be down here campaigning for Nunn and Carter. He's literally been phoning it in though, by calling into black radio stations in ATL to support them.
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« Reply #657 on: October 24, 2014, 12:21:17 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
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« Reply #658 on: October 24, 2014, 03:48:36 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
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« Reply #659 on: October 24, 2014, 05:52:21 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.
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« Reply #660 on: October 24, 2014, 06:22:17 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
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« Reply #661 on: October 24, 2014, 06:27:37 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

No, it doesn't work that way for open seats. McCain won 46% of the vote even when Bush was at 25% approval.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #662 on: October 25, 2014, 07:49:01 am »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

Inapplicable. Not the same person and certainly not the same agenda. Polls have shown her likely to do about as well at the least as Barack Obama did against McCain in 2008 -- against everyone.

President Obama will not be campaigning for a third term. He will keep his distance as he did in Senate campaigns in 2012 and this year. 
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« Reply #663 on: October 28, 2014, 03:18:56 pm »
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YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

Inapplicable. Not the same person and certainly not the same agenda. Polls have shown her likely to do about as well at the least as Barack Obama did against McCain in 2008 -- against everyone.

President Obama will not be campaigning for a third term. He will keep his distance as he did in Senate campaigns in 2012 and this year.  

But ultimately the point is that unless things are going very well, and either you run a great campaign or they run a really bad one, you are probably going to lose the third term for your party. I would be very surprised if there was still a democrat in the WH 3 years from now. Let's face it, things are going OK and I expect things will still probably be OK in 2016 and we will probably run a superior candidate. However, people don't like one-party rule and as good as Hillary is, she's flawed. Maybe she'll get lucky are she'll run against someone who offsets her weaknesses.

I will say this- given that many of our long term problems weren't solved by Obama and that a Republican will probably exacerbate them and throw off this slow and moderate business cycle, I expect something to happen during that Republican's first term to make him not get reelected. However, if something happens in the next year or two, that Republican will probably eventually win big on either being a "Morning in America" candidate or moderately as someone who has steadily restored sanity. Then again, if something happens on his watch and he totally owns the situation and builds his agenda around it, he could be reelected ala W.

So, I am expecting 2016 to be somewhere between 2000 and 2008 and  2020 to be like 1980 (something happened and you couldn't fix it), but it could just as easily be a 1996/1984/2012 (you got credited with fixing something, especially if you now have to share power Congress) or a 2004 (something happened and just enough people think you fixed it).
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 03:25:56 pm by MooMooMoo, Amith! »Logged


Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
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« Reply #664 on: November 17, 2014, 11:50:07 am »
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While Obama’s recent job approval isn’t high by historical standards, his second-term numbers overall have been more stable than those of his predecessors. Although many factors contribute to a president’s approval in the public’s eye, it often declines after an election when a president’s party loses.

George W. Bush’s rating, for instance, dropped consistently after his 2004 reelection, including five points after his second midterm election in 2006 (to 32%), when Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress. Ronald Reagan, who entered the 1986 elections with a 63% approval rating, dropped 16 points by December — largely due to the damage done by the Iran-Contra affair, which came to light in November 1986. Like Obama, Reagan’s party gave up the Senate and lost seats in the House.

Dwight Eisenhower’s job approval rating fell 5 points (57%-52%) in November 1958, according to Gallup, after a disastrous midterm for the GOP. Harry Truman’s rating declined 8 points (41%-33%) post-election in 1950, when Democrats barely held control of both houses.

One president who fared well after his second midterm was Bill Clinton, whose approval rating hit 65% as his party gained House seats in his second midterm election (the only time this occurred in the 20th century).

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/13/obama-job-rating-flat-after-midterm-losses-unlike-bush-ike-truman/
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« Reply #665 on: November 17, 2014, 04:36:40 pm »
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The public is divided, though, about who should take the lead in solving the country’s problems: 40% say Obama and 41% choose Republican congressional leaders. By contrast, 51% wanted Democratic leaders in Congress to take the lead after the 2006 midterms and just 29% thought Bush should do so.

That's interesting. Looks like the good people of America still have faith in our great president.
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« Reply #666 on: November 17, 2014, 04:43:34 pm »
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The public is divided, though, about who should take the lead in solving the country’s problems: 40% say Obama and 41% choose Republican congressional leaders. By contrast, 51% wanted Democratic leaders in Congress to take the lead after the 2006 midterms and just 29% thought Bush should do so.

That's interesting. Looks like the good people of America still have faith in our great president.

Hardly surprising. Everybody loves a winner, even if that winner cheated.

Yes, it really did!

Wait till people see what the GOP has to offer, and if it is little more than Hard Right boilerplate, then Republicans will really have to cheat to win in 2016.


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