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| |-+  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: True Federalist, Former Moderate, Badger)
| | |-+  The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 24577 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #575 on: April 23, 2014, 09:05:39 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf
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Midwest Governor windjammer
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« Reply #576 on: April 23, 2014, 09:10:08 am »
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In LA, not too bad!
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #577 on: April 23, 2014, 10:05:32 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

The GOP is ahead by only 6% in the U.S. House vote in KY, even though the GOP has 5 of 6 seats? That's got to scare Andy Barr.
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Midwest Governor windjammer
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« Reply #578 on: April 23, 2014, 10:08:07 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

The GOP is ahead by only 6% in the U.S. House vote in KY, even though the GOP has 5 of 6 seats? That's got to scare Andy Barr.
I would love to see Jensen defeating him, especially because she's praising Healthcare. But that's unlikely Sad
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #579 on: April 23, 2014, 10:08:58 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

The GOP is ahead by only 6% in the U.S. House vote in KY, even though the GOP has 5 of 6 seats? That's got to scare Andy Barr.
I would love to see Jensen defeating him, especially because she's praising Healthcare. But that's unlikely Sad

At this point, I think Jensen will win.
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Midwest Governor windjammer
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« Reply #580 on: April 23, 2014, 10:13:34 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

The GOP is ahead by only 6% in the U.S. House vote in KY, even though the GOP has 5 of 6 seats? That's got to scare Andy Barr.
I would love to see Jensen defeating him, especially because she's praising Healthcare. But that's unlikely Sad

At this point, I think Jensen will win.
But Bandit, I love your enthusiasm, but I guess you recognize that your predictions are always too favorable to democrats? Tongue
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #581 on: April 23, 2014, 10:15:42 am »
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But Bandit, I love your enthusiasm, but I guess you recognize that your predictions are always too favorable to democrats? Tongue

My predictions are usually favorable to the Republicans. There was a special election for Kentucky House about a year ago that I thought for sure the GOP would win. But the Democrat won it by 10%.
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« Reply #582 on: April 23, 2014, 10:19:22 am »
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But Bandit, I love your enthusiasm, but I guess you recognize that your predictions are always too favorable to democrats? Tongue

My predictions are usually favorable to the Republicans. There was a special election for Kentucky House about a year ago that I thought for sure the GOP would win. But the Democrat won it by 10%.
Really? Hmmmm
I seriously hope you're right Bandit, we're on the same side after all!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #583 on: April 23, 2014, 10:34:07 am »
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NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)


If he were running for a third term and actively campaigning for the Presidential election this year, then he would win none of the States in question. He won in 2012 without them.  Of course, Louisiana would be much closer than in either 2008 or 2012.

Obama now at -2 in both Rasmussen and Gallup today:

Gallup is 46-48 and Rasmussen is 48-50.

Obama now has the best rating at Gallup since Sept. last year.

There really isn't a source of bad news to pull things down. The economy is going steady, the health care roll out was fixed and the country is more or less at peace though Afghanistan is still winding down and there is rumor of war in Ukraine.

The average incumbent as a campaigner adds about 6-7% to his approval ratings to get the final share between himself and the key opponent, which means that based upon these polls (Barack Obama is a slick campaigner) he would get somewhere between 52% and 55% of the vote nationwide. 

...Of course he won't be running for a Third Term, he isn't campaigning actively, and the next Presidential election will be in 2016.  All in all the state polls are generally old, reflecting times when the President's approval was lower than it is now. 



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #584 on: Today at 09:40:23 am »
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Quinnipiac, Colorado:

With the usual caveat that Q gets polls for other states reasonably well but gets extremely R-leaning results for Colorado (methods that undercount Spanish-speaking voters?)

Quote
Colorado voters disapprove 59 - 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing. Disapproval is 95 - 5 percent among Republicans and 65 - 32 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 83 - 12 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2034

Huh? Lower approval of the President in Colorado than Kaiser finds in Louisiana?

Quinnipiac is still a good-faith poster. It may have a good methodology for Northeastern  and Midwestern states, and maybe Florida -- but may mess up badly in Colorado.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)







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Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
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