Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[eric82oslo]

I'm not sure why they didn't try to put it on the ballot in Colorado. Of any state currently without marriage equality, I think Colorado would be the best bet for it passing via ballot initiative (expect perhaps Nevada, where it can't be legalized until 2016).

Why it can't be legalized in Nevada until 2016?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm not sure why they didn't try to put it on the ballot in Colorado. Of any state currently without marriage equality, I think Colorado would be the best bet for it passing via ballot initiative (expect perhaps Nevada, where it can't be legalized until 2016).

Why it can't be legalized in Nevada until 2016?

It requires passing an amendment to the state constitution, and under the amendment process in Nevada, the earliest that could happen would be 2016.

[Person Man]

When do you think the first state to vote for Bush twice will have SSM?

[The Mikado]

When do you think the first state to vote for Bush twice will have SSM?

Utah already did, for several weeks.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

You can change Indiana to white now

[pbrower2a]

You can change Indiana to white now

What happened?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/25/indiana-gay-marriage_n_5529774.html

[pbrower2a]

Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first.

Utah should stay as it was.  The 10th Circuit placed its decision on hold pending appeal to the Supreme Court.  If the Supreme Court declines to hear the case, then not only Utah, but also Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming would go white.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Person Man]

Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first.

Utah should stay as it was.  The 10th Circuit placed its decision on hold pending appeal to the Supreme Court.  If the Supreme Court declines to hear the case, then not only Utah, but also Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming would go white.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Of course, it wouldn't be automatic but opponents would ultimately lose though they have started issuing SSM licenses in Boulder and Longmont.

[pbrower2a]

Proposed new category -- for states in which, as in Utah, the state's appeal is vacated.

Rationale: A Supreme Court ruling is final and absolute.  If the Supreme Court refuses to hear the appeal, then the state goes white. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I really don't see the need for yet another category as we mark time, but if you must, then Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma should also be covered as they too are part of the 10th Circuit. (As is New Mexico, but SSM is already recognized there.)

[politicallefty]

The Seventh Circuit has granted a stay in the Indiana case.

I feel it's also worth mentioning that the Ninth Circuit has now effectively elevated sexual orientation to heightened scrutiny. I think that kills off the Nevada gay marriage ban, which is to be heard in September. In other words, the Ninth Circuit could also be ruling on gay marriage by the end of the year.

The Fourth Circuit is also expected to make an imminent decision, and oral arguments didn't seem to favour the state. If Virginia's ban goes down at the appellate level, it'll take NC, SC, and WV with it.

[pbrower2a]

 Indiana reverts to light green due to the stay. I will show my rationale for keeping Utah in the tan category.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

I really don't see the need for yet another category as we mark time, but if you must, then Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma should also be covered as they too are part of the 10th Circuit. (As is New Mexico, but SSM is already recognized there.)

]

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

Brief windows of opportunity for SSM  that have not been reopened do not count. Neither does the simple acceptance of SSM contracted in another state or on places of federal authority (military bases and Indian reservations).

Permission to do SSM can be established by

(1) legislation authorizing it, including initiative or referendum
(2) an interpretation that the state law on marriage does not prohibit SSM)
(3) a state ban being voided by a judicial decision that the State does not appeal
(4) a state ban being voided but appealed, but the appeal being denied
(5) state bans being voided by a decision of the Supreme Court analogous to Loving vs. Virginia  that applies to all states.

All imply that the state permits SSM. States in white so far have legalized SSM through (1), (2), or (3). No state has yet gone through (4), and I cannot predict when any state will do so.


     

Utah is now in Stage 4, if not through it. The Tenth District Court has yet to set aside any appeal from other states within the district. They are different, as I can imagine SSM passing through legislation or initiative/referendum in Colorado before any final decision is made.

The courts have been deciding on specific statutes; unless someone can prove that two statutes are identical in wording, I cannot assume that appeals involving Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, or Wyoming -- yet.

It is still possible that the Tenth District Court will uphold the Utah ban, which would render the new category (in which I have only Utah) irrelevant.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The 10th Circuit holding was not predicated upon any particular clause of the Utah law, but was a generic holding that applies to any state.  I'll repeat, if you must create another distinction on the map to cover Utah, it applies to all 10th Circuit states that do not already recognize SSM.

Now it is possible that in those states where different qualifications exist for males and females in who may marry, that there will arise a lawsuit if a marriage could go ahead if one was male and one was female, but is blocked because both partners don't meet the requirements for their particular gender but would if one of them were held to the requirements of the other gender, but that is such a narrow restriction, I wouldn't even consider it germane to the broader question of whether a state must generally recognize same-sex marriages.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The 10th Circuit holding was not predicated upon any particular clause of the Utah law, but was a generic holding that applies to any state.  I'll repeat, if you must create another distinction on the map to cover Utah, it applies to all 10th Circuit states that do not already recognize SSM.

Now it is possible that in those states where different qualifications exist for males and females in who may marry, that there will arise a lawsuit if a marriage could go ahead if one was male and one was female, but is blocked because both partners don't meet the requirements for their particular gender but would if one of them were held to the requirements of the other gender, but that is such a narrow restriction, I wouldn't even consider it germane to the broader question of whether a state must generally recognize same-sex marriages.

Colorado is so different from the other states in the Tenth districts that it could either legislate an SSM ban out of existence or abolish it as the result of a referendum or initiative. I doubt that Governor Hickenlooper would ever seek a stay of any appeal.

But that is moot if the Tenth District Court vacates all SSM bans. I would not be surprised to see Colorado to abandon the SSM ban before almost any other state.

[Tender Branson]

Jokelahoma (Sooner Poll):

66% oppose
23% support

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepage2/opposition-strong-to-gay-marriage-according-to-poll/article_386eb2aa-46f9-501b-808e-1c8be0c5bc24.html

[IceSpear]

Jokelahoma (Sooner Poll):

66% oppose
23% support

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepage2/opposition-strong-to-gay-marriage-according-to-poll/article_386eb2aa-46f9-501b-808e-1c8be0c5bc24.html

If only Democrats abandoned their support for bro marriage we could win Oklahoma in a landslide.

[eric82oslo]

Then there are just five more states to go.

[pbrower2a]

Two in three Oklahomans oppose gay marriage with areas of greater support for the issue found among Democrats, younger voters and urban area dwellers, according to an Oklahoma Poll. The poll, among 393 likely voters statewide, found that 66 percent answered that they either strongly oppose or somewhat oppose allowing same-sex couples to marry.

The poll found that 58.1 percent of those asked said they strongly opposed gay marriage, while 8.1 percent were somewhat opposed to the issue. Opposition to gay marriage was stronger among those identifying themselves as Republicans, with 77.9 percent of respondents saying they opposed the issue either strongly or somewhat.

Among Democrats, nearly 58 percent said they opposed gay marriage with 1 in 3 saying they supported the issue and about 12 percent having no opinion.

The ruling by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver pertains to a ban in the Utah state constitution against same-sex marriages, which is similar to a ban in Oklahoma’s constitution.

Wednesday’s ruling foreshadows a pending ruling by the appeals court on same-sex marriages in Oklahoma because of the similarity of the two cases and because the same judges who made the ruling will make the ruling in the Oklahoma case.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepage2/opposition-strong-to-gay-marriage-according-to-poll/article_386eb2aa-46f9-501b-808e-1c8be0c5bc24.html

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma weighs in. There will be a court ruling from the Tenth District Court, and I predict that it will put Oklahoma at Stage 4, but until then it is in the deepest shade of red. We get to see what Oklahoma thinks of SSM for now.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/01/kentucky-gay-marriage_n_5548179.html

The Governor intends to appeal the ruling. Kentucky is not friendly to SSM, according to its most recent poll, so it goes orange.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

[ElectionsGuy]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

No, but J.B. Van Hollen did.

[pbrower2a]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

No, but J.B. Van Hollen did.

Question answered satisfactorily. Wisconsin reverts to green.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)