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Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 67041 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 12, 2011, 03:10:22 am »
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Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John Hickenlooperís job performance?

Approve................. 54%
Disapprove............ 24%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall's job performance?

Approve .................45%
Disapprove.............34%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Michael Bennet's job performance?

Approve .................44%
Disapprove.............36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%

If you could do last fallís election for US Senate over again, would you vote for Democrat Michael Bennet or Republican Ken Buck?

Michael Bennet ............................................... 55%
Ken Buck ........................................................ 38%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .................................................40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................27%

If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democratic candidate ..................................... 45%
Republican candidate ..................................... 40%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you think prostitution should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 56%

Do you think marijuana usage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McInnis?

Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Tancredo?

Favorable........................................................ 30%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

Would you support or oppose raising the income tax in Colorado from 4.63% to 5% and the sales tax from 2.9% to 3.0% in order to increase funding for public education?

Support ........................................................... 45%
Oppose ........................................................... 47%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf
« Last Edit: November 12, 2011, 09:54:44 pm by Tender Branson »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2011, 03:53:23 am »
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It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, letís contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, letís compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2011, 03:55:16 am »
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Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2011, 03:59:12 am »
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It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, letís contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, letís compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2011, 04:12:06 am »
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It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, letís contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, letís compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

Oh, BTW, Gallup and Edison largely agree on the ideological makeup of Colorado voters, while PPP would have us believe they are far more liberal.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122333/political-ideology-conservative-label-prevails-south
« Last Edit: August 12, 2011, 04:25:19 am by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2011, 04:22:13 am »
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It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, letís contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, letís compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

No word about Rasmussen ?

Rasmussen also used to be much more Republican early on and then moderate their results closer to election day.

Also, PPP doesn't weight according to party ID, but rely on self-ID (of what the poll respondents actually say).

And because polls are just snapshots in time, who can tell what the turnout might look like right now ?

Example: The current voter registration in Colorado is something like 33% R, 32% D, 35% I.

If the election were to be held today, it could be that of the 33% Republicans only 70% turn out and of Democrats 80% and of Independents lets say 60%.

That CHANGES the composition of the sample so that there are actually MORE Democrats in there than Republicans, even though they have a slight registration advantage.

Who tells us that in Colorado it could not be the case that Democrats are more likely to participate in a phone poll or actually turn out in greater numbers than Republicans ? The Colorado GOP isn't in really good shape either. So PPP's result for this moment could be accurate.

BTW, Democrats have recently caught up to Republicans in Colorado when it comes to registration. The gap was much larger 8 years or 4 years ago and depending on how effective the registration drives are next year, I could see Democrats overtaking Republicans ahead of the 2012 elections.
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2011, 04:31:44 am »
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ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2011, 04:51:06 am »
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ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2011, 05:11:39 am »
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ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2011, 10:03:37 am »
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ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what Iīm trying to say.
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2011, 10:39:05 am »
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Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2011, 01:49:48 pm »
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One wonders what the prostitution numbers would be had the innovation of female suffrage not been imposed.
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2011, 02:00:36 pm »
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Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"

Ya'think?

You know it's gotta be pretty bad for the Colorado GOP if polls have to include a question about prostitution.

Just saying.
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2011, 03:19:46 pm »
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Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2011, 03:22:20 pm »
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Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2011, 03:24:12 pm by Rip Marky Mark »Logged



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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2011, 03:28:24 pm »
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Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.

Before 2025? Try before 2015. There's already a federal case: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_v._Schwarzenegger
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2011, 10:47:05 pm »
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That case will drag on until 2025.

My favourite part of polling threads are those that quickly jump onto the cross tabs - "TOO MUCH DEMOCRATS AND LIBERALS." lol like, who gives a frick.
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2011, 02:20:39 am »
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Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2011, 03:47:48 am »
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Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2011, 03:56:16 am »
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Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2011, 08:51:30 am »
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Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.

That is a good idea. I think you have most of those types of polls covered but I'll post a reply in one of these threads if I catch a new one.

P.S. - Nice work on it. I love state by state maps for anything (gay marriage, governor opinion polling, etc)
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2011, 11:06:07 am »
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ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what Iīm trying to say.

First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

From what I can see, the Republican U.S. House of Representatioves candidates polled approximately 50% of the vote and the Democrat candidates approximately 45% in 2010 in Colorado.
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Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: August 15, 2011, 11:50:44 am »
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That's still slightly more Democratic than the country as a whole (51.6R/44.8D).
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« Reply #23 on: August 15, 2011, 11:56:32 am »
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That's still slightly more Democratic than the country as a whole (51.6R/44.8D).

That's primarily because of third party participation in Colorado:

Party                         Percentage
                            Colorado     Nation
Democrat              45.43          44.76
Republican            50.14          51.50
Libertarian              2.20            1.24
Constitutional         1.56            0.29
Green                      0.17           0.30
Independent           0.51           0.96

First, there was only one Green party candidate on the congressional ballot, which minimally helped the Democrats in Colorado.

Second, there was only one Independent had a much smaller percentage of the vote in Colorado than nationwide, which also slighly helped the percentage for the Democrats.

Third, both the Libertarian and Constitutional party congressional candidates did significantly better in Colorado than nationwide.  This hurt Republican congressional percentage s in Colorado to some small extent.

So, no, Colorado is not leaning toward the Democrats based on this data.

It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).
« Last Edit: August 15, 2011, 12:20:51 pm by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2011, 12:46:58 pm »
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It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).

How will that get the Pubbie numbers up in Colorado again?
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