Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Gravis Marketing]

Consider retitling this thread? I've been ignoring it for weeks because I assumed it was about referenda in Colorado, and was delighted to see it's tracking SSM sentiment in different states.

[Holmes]

Polling in Minnesota this far out doesn't matter to us now. All that matters is that it shows where each side has to work on to win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, despite that 11 point advantage in California, it sounds like there might not be a Proposition to legalize it next year. That's too bad, it would be hilarious to hear about "those activist voters legislating from the ballot box"

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Well, despite that 11 point advantage in California, it sounds like there might not be a Proposition to legalize it next year. That's too bad, it would be hilarious to hear about "those activist voters legislating from the ballot box"

Will they still blame Mormons/Blacks if it fails?

[Tender Branson]

Mississippi (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 13%
Illegal .............................................................. 78%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

10% Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
28% Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
60% There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
  2% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1118.pdf

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Here's a comparable map of how the referendums have gone so far (between 1998 and 2008):



Incl. NC and MN next year (according to polls now):

[Tender Branson]

What exactly makes SD so gay friendly ?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

What exactly makes SD so gay friendly ?

Their 2006 amendment was really restrictive, banning civil unions (like the failing Arizona one) and only passed 52%-48%.

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters, according to the new PPP poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."

[Username MechaRFK]

Most of Pennsylvania is Alabama of the North. 

"Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in the middle!"

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."

If you, you know, acknowledged that you're not in favor of small government, then we might respect your views slightly more.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Most of Pennsylvania is Alabama of the North. 

"Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in the middle!"

Not really. There's Scranton and Erie, and completely ignoring that Alabama gets us nowhere. At a local level, Westmoreland is still pretty even, for instance.

[greenforest32]

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

Yeah it definitely stood out.

Any bets on PPP's upcoming numbers for Arizona? Think Arizona will be ahead or behind Pennsylvania? I'm thinking it will be pretty close.

Also it looks like Oregon won't be having that gay marriage ballot measure in 2012: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/basic_rights_oregon_will_not_p.html The organization called it off citing bad/notgoodenough poll numbers. It's definitely a done deal in 2016 but they may attempt it in 2014.

[Snowguy716]

Polling in Minnesota this far out doesn't matter to us now. All that matters is that it shows where each side has to work on to win.

It's also impossible to tell where the state stands.. it's pretty close to evenly split and probably slightly in favor of the amendment overall.. though many polls have also showed a plurality opposing the referendum.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."

If you, you know, acknowledged that you're not in favor of small government, then we might respect your views slightly more.

I don't need to run my views by you to have them stamped for approval and then be told I "hate" a certain group of people if they don't meet your approval.

[Former Moderate]

Gay marriage is an uncomfortable issue for Phil. Should it be made legal in either his state or Ohio, he will certainly feel societal pressure to get married to his one true love, Naso.

As the law currently stands, he can enjoy some level of safety in knowing that their relationship cannot progress beyond the simple "bromance" stage. It is that safety which he cherishes, and it is that safety that drives his opinion.

Be brave, Phil. You do not need the safety. Embrace your feelings!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.

[greenforest32]

Arizona numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1130424.pdf

Not bad...

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

That's pretty good concidering Arizona is basiclly "The Mississippi Desert"

[ZonedOut]

Considering that we are the only state to EVER defeat a marriage amendment (2006), I don't know why this should be all that surprising.  AZ is NOT Jesus country.   Since the Dems have already capitulated on guns, if they could find a way to get immigration off the table, this state would be a toss-up/barely lean red.  If I were going to imagine what "The Mississippi Desert" would look like, especially regarding gay rights,  I would basiclly tend to imagine a larger state with an even dumber governor. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.

Hmm.

You didn't "know" or acknowledge it when I pointed this out previous.

Oh, and would you please point out where the electorate (as opposed to inaccurate surveys) shows such a "trend"?

[Holmes]

California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".